Institutional Investor (November 18)
“Since World War II, the U.S. economy has averaged a recession every five years.” Despite over six years of recovery, it doesn’t look like the U.S. is especially prone to recession because “the catalysts for a downturn aren’t in place.” There’s no real asset bubble, overheating or inflation. A recession is always a risk and can be brought about by unforeseen external shocks. At the moment, however, the risk of a recession looks normal, about 20–25%, for the next 12 months.
Tags: Asset bubble, Economy, External shock, Inflation, Overheating, Recession, Recovery, Risk, U.S., World War II
Washington Post (November 17)
“Fear does strange things to people” and in the aftermath of the Paris bombings some U.S. leaders have called for a moratorium on receiving refugees from Syria. But giving refugees a cold shoulder “is morally reprehensible, un-American and in some instances, legally untenable.” The “Syrian refugees deserve freedom from slaughter.”
“Wall Street Journal (November 17)
“Japan is in recession for the fifth time in seven years, and the second time since Shinzo Abe returned to office three years ago. The energetic Prime Minister who promised to end his country’s stagnation is failing at the task. It’s time for a rethink.”
Financial Times (November 16)
“The terrorist assault in Paris in Paris that has killed at least 129 people is civilisation’s worst nightmare: indiscriminate attacks in the heart of a capital city on peaceful people…. The immediate reaction of the civilised world must be: collective courage in the face of such outrage; heightened vigilance and intelligence sharing; a targeted military response; and international solidarity with the French people.”
Tags: Capital, Civilization, Collective courage, Intelligence, Military response, Nightmare, Paris, Peaceful people, Reaction, Solidarity, Terrorist, Vigilance
New York Times (November 15)
“The coldblooded depravity with which the terrorists gunned down people seated at restaurant tables and picked off hostages in the Bataclan concert hall where more than 80 were killed was horrifying. But Parisians have remained defiant and united…. This attack will harden the resolve of the French against the savagery of the Islamic State, as it must the world’s.”
Tags: Bataclan, Coldblooded, Defiant, Depravity, France, Hostages, Islamic State, Parisians, Resolve, Savagery, Terrorism, Terrorists, United
The Economist (November 14)
The Great Recession has morphed into the never ending crisis. Over the past decade, we’ve seen fallout from the U.S. housing crisis, the Euro crisis brought on by Greece, and now “a third instalment in the chronicles of debt is now unfolding. This time the setting is emerging markets. Investors have already dumped assets in the developing world, but the full agony of the slowdown still lies ahead.”
Tags: Assets, Crisis, Debt, Emerging markets, Euro crisis, Great Recession, Greece, Housing crisis, Investors, Never ending, Slowdown, U.S.
Institutional Investor (November 12)
“So far all comments from ECB policymakers have raised dovish expectations for the December meeting, while in the U.S. the Federal Reserve is widely expected to begin tightening. As a result, many analysts now see the macro setup for the dollar versus the euro as a catalyst to retest levels reached in the spring.”
Tags: Analysts, Catalyst, Dollar, Dovish, ECB, euro, Expectations, Fed, Policymakers, Tightening, U.S.
New York Times (November 12)
“For a majority of Canadians, Mr. Trudeau and his cabinet symbolize a renewed sense of national identity rooted in diversity, in humane and inclusive social policies at home and in humanitarian service overseas. The thrill of the moment may be fleeting, but it is invaluable for awakening new generations to public service and as an antidote to the cynicism about politics that has sadly become the norm in established democracies.”
Tags: Awakening, Cabinet, Canadians, Democracies, Diversity, Humane, Identity, Inclusive, Public service, Trudeau
Bloomberg (November 11)
“There are reasons to suspect that all the hand-wringing about China pulling down the rest of the world may be a tad overdone. Just as the country’s slump is producing obvious losers…it’s producing winners as well.” They “will help the world withstand a protracted period of sub-par performance by China,” much as the world did “when Japan’s economy downshifted dramatically in the 1990s.”
Tags: China, Economy, Hand-wringing, Japan, Losers, Performance, Slump, Winners, World
Barrons (November 10)
“Politics and religion may divide people, but everyone loves a good sale.” On Wednesday, Alibaba Holdings, the e-commerce giant, will start “its sixth annual 11.11 Global Shopping Festival. The 24-hour shopping-palooza, also known as Singles Day, generated $9.3 billion in sales last year, dramatically more than the $2.7 billion sold during America’s Cyber Monday. Analysts predict sales will set a new record this week.”
Tags: 11.11, Alibaba, Cyber Monday, E-commerce, Politics, Religion, Sale, Sales, Singles Day, U.S.
