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The Guardian (April 18)

2023/ 04/ 19 by jd in Global News

“China’s economy rebounded faster than expected, surpassing growth estimates for the first quarter of the year, after the country relaxed its onerous Covid-19 restrictions and consumer spending surged.” The 4.5% quarterly growth marked “the fastest in a year and beat the 4% rise forecast by analysts polled by Reuters.”

 

Financial Times (February 26)

2023/ 02/ 28 by jd in Global News

These are, according to Citigroup analysts, “distinctly echoey times.” Their “research suggests that, if it is not careful, China may be on track for a new wave of Japanification.” China is now remarkably similar to Japan’s post-property bubble era in, for example, demographics. China’s population is “now shrinking as Japan’s did years earlier… a reminder that after 1990, Japan’s housing price index fell as the 35- to 54-year-old cohort decreased.” These and other factors call for warnings about “the potential risks for China’s banking system.”

 

Oilprice.com (January 9)

2023/ 01/ 09 by jd in Global News

“The last month has been a month of celebration in the European Union. Gas demand is down because of the unusually warm weather. As a result, prices are down, and the crisis, according to analysts, appears to be averted.” Nevertheless, “these prices are not going to go much lower for the very simple reason that LNG could never be as cheap as pipeline gas.”

 

CNBC (November 13)

2022/ 11/ 15 by jd in Global News

As large U.S. retailers report earnings, inventory levels will dominate the gaze of analysts and investors. Retailers including Walmart, Target and Gap “are trying to sell through a glut of extra merchandise piling up in store backrooms and warehouses…. Balancing inventory has taken on additional urgency, as economists warn of dwindling savings accounts, rising credit card debt and the risk of a recession.”

 

Bloomberg (July 20)

2022/ 07/ 22 by jd in Global News

There seems to be a split “forming between a growing number of bearish yen watchers in Tokyo and their more positive foreign counterparts.” With the yen at a 24-year nadir, “strategists are debating whether one of the year’s hottest macro trades—sell the yen—is overdone.” In Japan, many think “there’s still plenty of time to pile on shorts,” but overseas “analysts from Sydney to Geneva… say time is nearly up on the trade as the yen slips further toward the key psychological level of 140 per dollar.”

 

New York Times (May 21)

2022/ 05/ 22 by jd in Global News

“The euro hasn’t fallen below the one-to-one exchange rate with the U.S. dollar for two decades. But as economic risks grow, more analysts predict deeper lows for the shared currency.” The U.S. currency is considered one of the safest havens “for money as the risk of stagflation — an unhealthy mix of stagnant economic growth and rapid inflation — stalks the globe.”

 

Fortune (April 24)

2022/ 04/ 24 by jd in Global News

The U.S. may be experiencing “the hottest housing market ever recorded. Over the past 12 months, U.S. home prices are up a staggering 19.2%.” Analysts expected the market “would lose some steam” in 2022, but that “hasn’t come to fruition—yet.” Instead, things have actually “gotten a bit hotter, with housing inventory on Zillow down 52% from pre-pandemic levels.” All of this leaves “a growing chorus of economists speculating that if home price growth doesn’t abate soon, the housing market could eventually overheat. Or worse: We could wind up in another full-fledged housing bubble.”

 

CNN Business (April 17)

2022/ 04/ 18 by jd in Global News

“Nearly 400 million people across 45 cities in China are under full or partial lockdown as part of China’s strict zero-Covid policy.” Collectively, they contribute $7.2 trillion, nearly 40%, of China’s GDP. “Analysts are ringing warning bells, but say investors aren’t properly assessing how serious the global economic fallout might be from these prolonged isolation orders.”

 

Washington Post (March 9)

2022/ 03/ 11 by jd in Global News

“Stock analysts are riding with the bull despite rumblings from the bear.” On Monday, “U.S. stocks slumped the most in 17 months… but the ‘buy the dip’ mentality isn’t dead… and stock analysts are part of the reason it’s likely to stick around awhile. Research on individual stocks is as bullish as it has been in two decades by some measures.”

 

Seeking Alpha (January 4)

2022/ 01/ 05 by jd in Global News

“While analysts on Wall Street are confident the bull market will continue uninterrupted into 2022, there are more than enough risks to derail that market outlook. Importantly, none of these independently suggest a significant correction is imminent. However, the risk is that they will undermine the bullish ‘psychology’ of the market.”

 

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