The Economist (August 10)
“Since the trade war began in 2018 the damage done to the global economy has been surprisingly slight.” No longer. “This week the picture darkened as the confrontation between America and China escalated, with more tariffs threatened and a bitter row erupting over China’s exchange rate.” Compromise is essential. “But for that to happen President Donald Trump and his advisers must rethink their strategy…. America cannot have a cheap currency, a trade conflict and a thriving economy.”
Tags: China, Compromise, Confrontation, Damage, Exchange rate, Global economy, Tariffs, Trade war, Trump, U.S.
Washington Post (June 14)
“Is the Iran-U.S. tinderbox about to ignite?” In one sense, it already has. Burning tankers provided “the dramatic imagery that sometimes precedes armed conflict.” Clearly fraught, the confrontation is partly due to “Iranian overconfidence” and frustration. “Trump’s ‘maximum pressure’ campaign has collided head on with Khamenei’s maximum resistance. Met by American economic warfare, Iran’s hard-liners are doubling down with their own forms of deniable warfare, with mines, drones and proxy attacks.”
Tags: Armed conflict, Confrontation, Deniable warfare, Drones, Economic warfare, Frustration, Hard-liners, Ignite, Iran, Khamenei, Mines, Overconfidence, Pressure, Proxy attacks, Resistance, Tankers, Tinderbox, Trump’s, U.S.
LA Times (June 1)
“For the U.S. and China, it’s not a trade war anymore — it’s something worse.” Though it’s still framed in terms of trade, “the conflict with China has widened beyond the original trade-based issues” and it “now threatens to become a far wider and more ominous confrontation,” potentially a clash of civilizations.
Bloomberg (December 3)
Trump and Xi gave “markets the most they could have expected,” which wasn’t that much. Still, they avoided the “risk of a serious downside (an angry confrontation and a meeting ending with recriminations and no agreement).” While some may see justification for “risk on” investing, it’s worth noting that this truce is only temporary, “in the longer term, all the risks remain in place.”
Tags: Confrontation, Downside, Markets, Recriminations, Risk, Temporary, Truce, Trump, Xi
Washington Post (July 12)
“China is increasingly asserting itself as a great power, and nowhere is its rise more likely to lead to war than in the South China Sea” where tensions have been rising with nations who dispute China’s claims. “These tensions are likely only to increase in the wake of the Permanent Court of Arbitration’s ruling Tuesday undermining China’s claims and bolstering those of the Philippines, one of the closest U.S. allies in the region.” We have not escaped from “perilous waters.” In fact, “China is more prepared for a confrontation than Western experts may expect.”
Tags: Allies, China, Claims, Confrontation, Dispute, Perilous, Philippines, South China Sea, Tensions, U.S., War
New York Times (August 22)
“Given North Korea’s nuclear weapons arsenal and its erratic leader, Kim Jong-un, any such confrontation must be taken seriously and managed carefully, with the United States and China playing key roles in urging restraint…. As satisfying as it may be to push back against Mr. Kim’s provocations, any reaction by South Korea and the United States must be carefully weighed, with an emphasis on restraint.”
Tags: China, Confrontation, Kim Jong Un, North Korea, Nuclear weapons, Restraint, U.S.
New York Times (November 1)
An ongoing border dispute between India and China has led to war and confrontation. A recent agreement, however, “gives both sides an incentive to review their now very different maps of the region and settle on a permanent border. Until that happens, the possibility of serious conflict remains very real.”
Financial Times (September 18)
“With their economies struggling and domestic politics in disarray, the last thing leaders in China and Japan need now is a foreign policy crisis. Sadly, that is what they are getting into.” The dispute over the Senkaku islands has entered “a more dangerous phase.” A number of circumstances conspired to create the crisis, but there is “no reason for China and Japan to allow further escalation. It is inconceivable that Asia’s two economic giants, joined at the hip commercially, should get into a prolonged confrontation, let alone a military conflict, over these islands. The crisis has already exacted a heavy toll on both countries.”
“With their economies struggling and domestic politics in disarray, the last thing leaders in China and Japan need now is a foreign policy crisis. Sadly, that is what they are getting into.” The dispute over the Senkaku islands has entered “a more dangerous phase.” A number of circumstances conspired to create the crisis, but there is “no reason for China and Japan to allow further escalation. It is inconceivable that Asia’s two economic giants, joined at the hip commercially, should get into a prolonged confrontation, let alone a military conflict, over these islands. The crisis has already exacted a heavy toll on both countries.”
Tags: China, Confrontation, Crisis, Japan, Military conflict, Senkaku islands
New York Times (August 18)
Competition over territorial status in the South China Sea ”has become a virtual free-for-all. Confrontations over territorial control are alarmingly frequent and could get out of hand, with dangerous consequences.” The East China Sea is also the scene of rising tension. While “China would prefer to deal with territorial disputes bilaterally because it thinks it can strong-arm its neighbors,” the U.S. has an important role to fulfill by taking “a neutral position on the claims” and proposing fair negotiations to settle the disputes.
Tags: China, Confrontation, East China Sea, Negotiations, South China Sea, U.S.
