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Financial Times (March 14)

2017/ 03/ 15 by jd in Global News

The Japanese stock market resembles “the ghost ship Mary Celeste.” Strewn around the decks are signs that the ship should be hopping with activity: the Topix index at a 14-month high, identifiable value stocks in abundance, a comfortably-positioned yen, fresh legalisation of casinos in the bag and a run of record share buybacks…. And yet there is silence.” Volumes have been low during the last three weeks and “overseas investors have been net sellers…with up to Y78bn leaving the index.” This suggests little wind remains in the Abenomics sails and, quite possibly, that traders are cautious ahead of developments from the Federal Reserve and Donald Trump. But it could also mean that overseas investors have written “Japan off as a credible, reform-minded play on global growth and domestic reflation.”

 

Financial Times (July 26)

2016/ 07/ 27 by jd in Global News

“There is a welcome sense among the world’s policymakers—at least, those outside the UK—that life is returning to the pre-EU referendum normal. The tasks of the Fed and the BoJ are not easy, particularly for the latter. But at least the challenges and the risks involved are looking a great deal more familiar.”

 

Institutional Investor (April 27)

2016/ 04/ 29 by jd in Global News

With no major changes resulting at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), “it’s easy to overlook the seismic shifts going on just beneath the surface that will impact policy and markets for the remainder of 2016.” The “astounding number of mixed signals and conflicting messages” emanating from Fed speakers of late is one clue to the divisions on the committee and the uncertainty regarding the U.S. economy.

 

Institutional Investor (April 23)

2016/ 04/ 25 by jd in Global News

“Rate announcements by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan will loom large this coming week as investors consider the alternate reality of negative interest rates. Meanwhile, key economic indicators for onetime BRIC stars Russia and Brazil will arrive as each suffers from the weight of low oil prices and Brazil deals with domestic political intrigue surrounding the impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff.”

 

Institutional Investor (March 16)

2016/ 03/ 18 by jd in Global News

All eyes are on the Federal Reserve. Not because anybody expects them to change interest rates at today’s meeting, but because everybody wants a glimpse of the future. “Concerns over volatility around the globe and fragility in some sectors, notably energy and industrials, suggest that the Fed may signal a moderation of the pace of tightening…. A slower path for rates seems plausible as core inflation appears to be manageable.”

 

Wall Street Journal (February 12)

2016/ 02/ 13 by jd in Global News

Focusing on employment and rising wages, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen believes “the U.S. economy is in decent shape and would be even better if not for the blasted rest of the world.” Markets, on the other hand, “are looking at different signals that suggest the world economy continues to weaken.” For example, “global trade is no longer growing as rapidly as world GDP, which is the opposite of the historical pattern. Containers are piling up at the world’s ports.” Ms. Yellen may “turn out to be right” given market proclivity for volatility and overreaction.

 

Wall Street Journal (December 16)

2015/ 12/ 18 by jd in Global News

“Financial markets took the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate ‘liftoff’ from near-zero in stride on Wednesday, broadly celebrating the 25 basis point increase in the federal-funds rate.” Given the late timing of the rise, however, this is very much unchartered territory. “The truth is that few people in financial markets are confident that anyone knows how this gradual return to monetary normalcy will turn out.”

 

The Economist (December 12)

2015/ 12/ 13 by jd in Global News

“Since interest rates hit rock-bottom in 2009, the Federal Reserve has repeatedly made optimistic forecasts about when they would start rising, only to delay the big day again and again.” The long-awaited hike now appears imminent. “On December 16th, when the Fed’s rate-setting committee meets, it seems all but certain to raise rates.”

 

Institutional Investor (November 12)

2015/ 11/ 14 by jd in Global News

“So far all comments from ECB policymakers have raised dovish expectations for the December meeting, while in the U.S. the Federal Reserve is widely expected to begin tightening. As a result, many analysts now see the macro setup for the dollar versus the euro as a catalyst to retest levels reached in the spring.”

 

The Economist (September 12)

2015/ 09/ 13 by jd in Global News

“The last time the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate, there was no one to tweet about it.” That was in June 2006 before Twitter’s IPO. “Nine years on, as the Fed readies itself to raise rates again, the public debate between hawks and doves is much noisier.” Even though markets are counting on least one rate rise this year, “it does not pay to go early: a rise now would needlessly risk America’s recovery.”

 

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