RSS Feed


October 2018
« Sep    


Tag Cloud


The Times (January 11)

2018/ 01/ 12 by jd in Global News

Driven by the cheap pound, UK factory growth hit a seven-year high. “Factories are growing at the fastest pace in almost seven years after a solid three months to November that beat all forecasts and put Britain on track to start 2018 on a firm footing.” Still, the manufacturing sector “accounts for only a tenth of output in Britain, with four fifths generated by services.”


Investment Week (December Issue)

2017/ 12/ 17 by jd in Global News

“Quantitative forecasts are based on probability models that cannot help but assume the future will be correlated to the past, and qualitative scenarios are based on, well, a combination of experience and common sense. Either way, most methodologies it would seem leave little room for discussion of true outliers and surprises.”


Bloomberg (February 6)

2017/ 02/ 08 by jd in Global News

“Just a few weeks ago, Wall Street analysts were busy boosting their economic forecasts on the expectation that President Trump would implement sweeping corporate-tax reform, a rollback of regulations, and new fiscal stimulus.” After seeing the first two weeks of the Trump Presidency, the analysts are having second thoughts. Their forecasts are now poised for “a rethink, if not an outright reversal.”


The Economist (December 12)

2015/ 12/ 13 by jd in Global News

“Since interest rates hit rock-bottom in 2009, the Federal Reserve has repeatedly made optimistic forecasts about when they would start rising, only to delay the big day again and again.” The long-awaited hike now appears imminent. “On December 16th, when the Fed’s rate-setting committee meets, it seems all but certain to raise rates.”


Financial Times (November 4)

2015/ 11/ 05 by jd in Global News

It now “seems likely, and indeed desirable, that the BoJ will be forced to expand its programme of quantitative easing before too long.” The Bank of Japan revised both its inflation and growth forecasts downward, and extended its horizon for achieving its inflation target. “Disappointing outcomes do not mean that the BoJ’s combination of an inflation target and using QE has failed, but that it needs to be more enthusiastically pursued. The BoJ can and should contemplate going further.”


Bloomberg (October 26)

2015/ 10/ 27 by jd in Global News

“Reality keeps beating BOJ’s inflation forecasts.” According to Bloomberg, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) ranks last or next to last in the accuracy of its forecasts for inflation and GDP when compared to other major central banks. The Bank of Japan has had to lower its inflation estimates for all four years from 2014 and now looks poised to follow suit on Friday with its release of updated inflation forecasts.


Institutional Investor (April 2)

2015/ 04/ 03 by jd in Global News

Expectations are low as U.S. companies prepare to report first quarter results. Consensus forecasts “show a decline in first quarter earnings of more than 4 percent, with anticipated shortfalls across all sectors. This represents the largest downward revisions since the first quarter of 2009.”


Financial Times (May 16)

2011/ 05/ 18 by jd in Global News

“The March 11 earthquake and tsunami caused Y2,000bn ($25bn) in damage to plant and equipment at Japanese companies and left many too uncertain of their business prospects to issue forecasts for the current fiscal year.” While quake-dampened consumer demand remains a concern, “it is the problems on the supply side that have contributed most to the uncertainty.”