Bloomberg (March 28)
“The risks are piling up for Japan’s currency, stocks and bonds as the nation’s fiscal year draws to an end right when many global markets close for Easter — and less than two weeks after the central bank hiked interest rates.”
Tags: Bonds, Central bank, Currency, Easter, Fiscal year, Global markets, Interest rates, Japan, Piling up, Risks, Stocks
Financial Times (March 10)
“Policymakers at the Bank of Japan are tackling a series of thorny policy debates as they confront the practicalities of raising interest rates for the first time since the summer of 2006.” Despite signaling the “unprecedented era of cheap money” could end with a rate increase as early as March, the BoJ “still faces a number of challenging decisions about how to leave negative rates behind without causing turmoil for global markets and Japanese lenders.”
Tags: 2006, BOJ, Cheap money, Confront, Global markets, Japan, Lenders, March, Negative rates, Policy debates, Policymakers, Practicalities, Thorny, Turmoil, Unprecedented era
Reuters (October 2)
“Tensions between the West and China are rising, from tit-for-tat trade tariffs to tech rivalry and spying allegations. The ramifications for global markets are significant, with Washington and Beijing’s determination to loosen dependence on each other fraying long-established supply chains. That could help keep inflation and interest rates elevated. Still, there are gains for emerging nations and tech giants on the right side of the power battle.”
Tags: China, Dependence, Emerging nations, Fraying, Global markets, Inflation, Interest rates, Ramifications, Rising, Spying, Supply chains, Tech rivalry, Tensions, Tit-for-tat, Trade tariffs, West
Financial Times (May 6)
“The yen may very well experience further depreciation pressure over the coming weeks… we are in a complex and volatile period for global markets.” Beyond that, however, “there are a number of paths to recovery for the yen…. Investors can anticipate a rebound in the yen over time and should consider owning this haven asset as a hedge against global recession and other tail risks.”
Tags: Anticipate, Asset, Complex, Depreciation, Global markets, Haven, Hedge, Investors, Pressure, Rebound, Recession, Recovery, Volatile, Yen
Bloomberg (April 12)
“The feel-good days for global markets at the end of March are firmly over.” Suddenly, everyone is afraid of economic slowing. “With monetary support rapidly receding and recession risks rising, investors are hunkering down. Companies resilient to an economic slowdown such as health care are back in favor. Ditto cash and dividend-paying stocks. Meanwhile, demand for hedging is creeping up in the options market.”
Tags: Afraid, Companies, Dividends, Feel good, Global markets, Health care, Hedging, Hunkering down, Investors, March, Monetary support, Recession, Risks, Slowdown
Washington Post (March 10)
The lack of candor “is now causing confusion and panic as Trump and his political lieutenants paint a picture of the spreading coronavirus that is utterly at odds with what the nation’s public health experts are saying…. As global markets plunged on Monday and the virus continued its inexorable spread, Trump continued comparing the virus to the ‘common Flu,’ during which ‘nothing is shut down.’”
Tags: Candor, Confusion, Coronavirus, Experts, Flu, Global markets, Panic, Plunged, Public health, Trump, Virus
Bloomberg (January 10)
Today’s “easy-money policies” appear to be “setting up global markets for the next Minsky Moment.” If economist Hyman Minsky is right and the modern “economic cycle is driven more by surges in the banking system and in the supply of credit,” we can expect a tremendous crash when it ultimately comes.
Washington Post (September 27)
“The global marketplace may tell the larger story” about the presidential debate. “As the evening concluded, thanks to Clinton’s obvious dominance, as well as her assertion that a Clinton presidency would honor U.S. commitments abroad, the Asian markets recovered, the Mexico peso rallied, and Dow futures added 100 points.”
Tags: Asian markets, Clinton, Dominance, Dow futures, Global markets, Honor, Mexico, Peso, Presidential debate, Rally, U.S. commitments
Institutional Investor (September 19)
“A sense of dissonance” is overcoming global markets, according to the Bank for International Settlements. “Falling bond yields are normally associated with subdued growth…yet stock markets around the world have rallied even as corporate profitability has lagged.” Furthermore, the ten-year yield on many major sovereigns is “running well below the nominal rate of growth in gross domestic product, breaking a 65-year pattern in which the two have tracked each other closely.”
Tags: Bank for International Settlements, Bond yields, Dissonance, GDP, Global markets, Growth, Profitability, Sovereigns, Stock markets
Institutional Investor (August 21)
Black swan events “will continue to jolt global markets. But when even the best of human forecasters struggle to predict with accuracy the outcomes of these events, how can pension plans, for example, effectively make decisions to better weather the volatility that follows.” Big data may hold the key. “Using big data to track media sentiment, volume, tone and correlation can help institutional investors understand the diffusion of ideas and outliers that can serve as clues for unexpected risk.”
Tags: Accuracy, Big Data, Black swan, Correlation, Diffusion, Forecasters, Global markets, Human, Jolt, Outcomes, Outliers, Pension plans, Sentiment, Unexpected risk, Volatility
