Oilprice.com (October 24)
OPEC recently forecast “that demand for oil is going to continue rising at least until 2045.” In contrast, the just released Energy Outlook from the International Energy Agency forecasts that “demand for oil, natural gas, and coal is set to peak before 2030, which undermines the case for increasing investment in fossil fuels…. While the agency does admit that investment in fossil fuels will remain necessary, it claims the growth era is over.”
Tags: 2030, 2045, Coal, Demand, Energy Outlook, Forecast, Fossil fuels, Growth era, IEC, Investment, Natural gas, Oil, OPEC, Over, Peak
Barron’s (April 21)
“Oil prices have given back almost all of the gains they made after OPEC and its allies surprised the market by agreeing to cut production by 1.2 million barrels a day starting in May. It’s a sign that the oil market is more focused on demand now, and doesn’t see enough evidence that countries are using more oil.”
Tags: Allies, Demand, Gains, Market, Oil prices, OPEC, Production, Surprised
Seeking Alpha (April 5)
“Investors were taken by surprise on April 2nd when news broke that OPEC+…announced unexpected cuts in output. This move came even in spite of a previously rosy forecast for the supply and demand balance that OPEC made public…. Investors would be wise to see this as a bullish development for any company that benefits from higher oil prices. But in particular, the exploration and production companies could be very appealing to consider at this time.”
Tags: Appealing, Bullish, Demand, Exploration, Forecast, Investors, Oil prices, OPEC, Output, Production, Supply, Surprise, Unexpected
Equities News (March 28)
“The petrodollar was born” in 1975. When OPEC members exclusively adopted the dollar for pricing, it “had the immediate effect of strengthening the U.S. dollar,” with the greenback becoming “the world’s reserve currency, a status formerly enjoyed by the British pound, French franc and Dutch guilder.” Today, however, “we may be witnessing the end of the petrodollar as more and more countries, including China and Russia, are agreeing to make settlements in currencies other than the U.S. dollar. This could have wide-ranging implications on not just a macro scale but also investment portfolios.”
Tags: 1975, China, Currencies, Franc, Greenback, Guilder, Implications, Macro scale, OPEC, Petrodollar, Pound, Reserve currency, Russia, Settlements, Strengthening, U.S.
Oilprice.com (December 2)
“OPEC+ will meet this Sunday to discuss its production targets for January 2023, amidst a widening discrepancy between oil market watchers as to what we should be expecting next year…. The IEA’s global oil demand growth for 2023 stands at a mere 1.7 million b/d whilst OPEC expects 2.55 million b/d.”
Tags: 1.7 million b/d, 2.55 million b/d, 2023, Demand growth, Discrepancy, Global, IEA, January, Oil market, OPEC, Production targets
Investment Week (August 23)
In early August, the Bank of England predicted “increased gas prices would cause inflation to rise above 13% by the end of the year.” The consensus is worse. “Goldman Sachs and EY forecast UK consumer price inflation would reach 15%, and Bank of America projected it would peak at 14% in January.” Citi bank has gone further and “riled markets” by forecasting “UK CPI to hit 18.6% in January… beating the 1979 peak when CPI hit 17.8% following the OPEC oil shock.” A recession looks all but inevitable.
Tags: Bank of America, BOE, Citi bank, Consensus, CPI, EY, Forecast, Gas prices, Goldman Sachs, Inflation, Markets, Oil shock, OPEC, Peak, Recession, UK
Bloomberg (April 13)
“OPEC+ group of countries, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, finally agreed to a record cut in their oil production in response to the coronavirus-triggered collapse in demand. But the deal will come under pressure when the world becomes a more normal place again.” When demand returns, “the great battle for market share between the Americans, the Saudis and the Russians will probably restart.”
Tags: Battle, Collapse, Coronavirus, Demand, Market share, Oil production, OPEC, Pressure, Record, Russia, Saudi Arabia
Reuters (March 9)
Two black swans have collided. “Financial markets have been thrown into turmoil following Saudi Arabia’s response to the collapse of OPEC+ talks and concerns about the global spread of the coronavirus.”
Tags: Black swans, Collapse, Collided, Financial markets, OPEC, Saudi Arabia, Turmoil
Bloomberg (May 2)
“Money managers turned the most bullish since May as West Texas Intermediate crude climbed to a five-month high on optimism that falling U.S. production and rising fuel demand will trim the global glut.” Their optimism may be both short-sighted and short-lived as OPEC just “boosted production by 484,000 barrels a day to 33.217 million in April, the most in monthly data going back to 1989.”
Tags: Bullish, Crude, Demand, Money managers, OPEC, Optimism, Production, U.S., West Texas Intermediate
Institutional Investor (March 2)
“OPEC members with little foreign currency reserves or alternate sources of income have been struggling to keep afloat during the global slump in oil prices.”
Tags: Foreign currency reserves, Income, Oil prices, OPEC, Slump, Struggling
