Bloomberg (February 26)
“After weeks of grumbling, the world’s biggest bond market spoke loud and clear Thursday — growth and inflation are moving higher. The message wreaked havoc across risk assets…. Speculation is building that a year of emergency stimulus is not only working, but has left some areas of the economy at risk of one day overheating.”
Tags: Bond market, Economy, Emergency stimulus, Growth, Grumbling, Havoc, Higher, Inflation, Overheating, Risk assets, Speculation
Barron’s (February 23)
“Markets are now pricing for the sweet spot of reflation toward equilibrium. But too much of a good thing is, well, not a good thing. And with the Biden administration proposing a fiscal stimulus package nearly three times as large as the U.S. output gap and given a probable improvement in household demand as more Americans are vaccinated, the risk of overheating is not trivial.”
Tags: Biden, Equilibrium, Fiscal stimulus, Household demand, Markets, Overheating, Pricing, Reflation, Risk, Sweet spot, U.S., Vaccinated
Mother Jones (July 12)
“One of the largest icebergs ever recorded broke off Antarctica’s Larsen C ice shelf…permanently altering the coastline of our planet’s frozen continent. Twice the size of Long Island and packing a trillion tons of ice—fully melted, that’s enough water to fill Lake Michigan—the newly birthed iceberg seems like a perfect symbol for our overheating world.” And yet, that is slightly misleading. Other than posing a shipping hazard, “as long as the parent ice shelf remains stable, A68 should have no measurable impact on the rest of the planet.”
Tags: A68, Antarctica, Hazard, Ice shelf, Iceberg, Largest, Larsen C, Melted, Overheating, Ships, Stable
Institutional Investor (November 18)
“Since World War II, the U.S. economy has averaged a recession every five years.” Despite over six years of recovery, it doesn’t look like the U.S. is especially prone to recession because “the catalysts for a downturn aren’t in place.” There’s no real asset bubble, overheating or inflation. A recession is always a risk and can be brought about by unforeseen external shocks. At the moment, however, the risk of a recession looks normal, about 20–25%, for the next 12 months.
Tags: Asset bubble, Economy, External shock, Inflation, Overheating, Recession, Recovery, Risk, U.S., World War II
