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New York Times (August 9)

2018/ 08/ 11 by jd in Global News

The $30 trillion U.S. stock market hogs the attention, but “the larger domestic debt market—at around $41 trillion for the bond market alone—reveals more about our nation’s financial health. And right now, the debt market is broadcasting a dangerous message: Investors, desperate for debt instruments that pay high interest, have been overpaying for riskier and riskier obligations….  with little concern that bonds can be every bit as dangerous to own as stocks.” The mispricing of risk is still rampant and when spreads rise and defaults begin, “trillions of dollars in invested capital could be lost.” Although, we’re not necessarily “on the verge of a recession. But the corporate debt bubble inevitably will play a role in causing it.”

 

Wall Street Journal (May 17)

2018/ 05/ 20 by jd in Global News

“American women are having children at the lowest rate on record, with the number of babies born in the U.S. last year dropping to a 30-year low…. The figures suggest that a number of women who put off having babies after the 2007-09 recession are forgoing them altogether.” This could spell trouble as America’s aging population is already “creating a funding imbalance that strains the social safety net that supports the elderly.”

 

Washington Post (February 13)

2018/ 02/ 14 by jd in Global News

President Trump released his very own “comic book” in the form of a budget. Candidate Trump boasted “he would ‘get rid of the $19 trillion in debt . . . over a period of eight years,’” but his budget would add $7 trillion to the debt over a decade — $2 trillion in the next two years alone — and even those numbers are based on the peculiar assumption that the economy will never again go into recession.” That’s only the beginning. His comic-book budget goes onto shred many of the bold promises Trump once made.

 

Businessweek (September 13)

2017/ 09/ 14 by jd in Global News

“As Putin prepares to run for a fourth term in elections next March, the plight of his working-class base across the Russian heartland is emerging as a top domestic challenge.” There’s little doubt Putin will win, “but the discontent threatens Putin’s popularity as the economy continues to sputter. After the longest recession in his 17-year rule, real incomes have fallen 12 percent over the past three years, sparking protests in areas that provided solid backing for Putin in 2012.”

 

Institutional Investor (February 6)

2017/ 02/ 07 by jd in Global News

Legendary bond investor Bill Gross believes the “$12 trillion now held by central banks is a permanent fixture of global finance, acting a bit like methadone. Methadone manages the craving, but does little to end the patient’s addiction.” He also posits that the U.S. would be in recession if it were not for the easing measures of the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan.

 

Reuters (October 18)

2016/ 10/ 19 by jd in Global News

International sanctions are hitting Russia hard. “Though the Kremlin shows no sign of backing down, it remains unclear whether Russia’s struggling economy can support its global aspirations. Moscow’s 2014 invasion of eastern Ukraine sparked a major recession. Economists have been looking in vain for signs of recovery ever since.”

 

Bloomberg (August 3)

2016/ 08/ 06 by jd in Global News

Japan’s new proposal for stimulus “might win a few halfhearted cheers from Japan’s battered consumers, but it’s unlikely to have much of an effect. First, it’s just another in a long series of such moves, none of which have done much to jog the country out of its long, grinding stagnation.” While it “might keep the economy from falling into a recession…it’s unlikely to alter the anemic trends of recent years.”

 

South China Morning Post (June 27)

2016/ 06/ 28 by jd in Global News

“Thanks to Brexit, a new global financial crash is looming. More vulnerable economies risk slipping back into recession and deflation will continue to get the upper hand.”

 

Financial Times (June 23)

2016/ 06/ 25 by jd in Global News

Some say Brazil “suffers from a complex of grandeza or greatness. Lately, though, Brazil has been big in all the wrong ways. The country is facing its biggest recession. It is engulfed by its biggest corruption scandal. It has the world’s most indebted oil company, Petrobras. This week, it witnessed its biggest-ever corporate bankruptcy” when telecoms company Oi filed for protection.

 

Bloomberg (June 14)

2016/ 06/ 15 by jd in Global News

“The shipping industry is struggling through its worst recession in half a century, and that icon of globalization — the mega-container ship — is a major part of the problem. With global growth and trade still sluggish, and the benefits of sailing and docking big boats diminishing with each new generation, ship owners are belatedly realizing that bigger isn’t better.”

 

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