New York Times (November 4)
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell announced a tapering of stimulus programs, but he did not “lay the groundwork for higher rates.” That doesn’t mean “the era of near-zero rates will last anything close to as long as it did after the global financial crisis,” but if the current inflation surge “proves something other than temporary, Mr. Powell’s decision to stick to his guns” on interest rates “will loom as a missed moment to join other English-speaking countries in using monetary policy to try to stamp it out.”
Tags: Fed, Global financial crisis, Inflation, Interest, Monetary policy, Near-zero, Powell, Rates, Stimulus, Surge, Tapering
The Atlantic (February 4, 2014)
“Lehman conditioned us to always look for the next domino. But sometimes a falling currency is just a falling currency.” Since last May when then Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke mentioned tapering, “emerging market currencies have been in a world of pain.” But fundamentals are much stronger than before the Asian Currency Crisis so this needn’t be a repeat of 1997. “The danger isn’t slumping currencies. The danger is overreacting to slumping currencies.”
Tags: 1997, Asian Currency Crisis, Ben Bernanke, Currency, Emerging markets, Fed, Fundamentals, Lehman, Overreacting, Tapering
Wall Street Journal (January 26, 2014)
As the Federal Reserve begins tapering, we’ll see which emerging markets have “been swimming naked.” During the days of easy money, nearly anybody could enjoy the party. Now we’ll see which countries squandered the opportunity and left themselves exposed. “The end of Ben Bernanke’s Fed tide will have its uses if it spurs the kind of tax, trade and investment reforms that have been put off in too many places. The question is how much damage will be done as this global adjustment takes place.”
Tags: Ben Bernanke, Damage, Easy money, Emerging markets, Exposed, Federal Reserve, Global adjustment, Investment, Opportunity, Reforms, Squandered, Tapering, Tax, Trade, U.S.
Euromoney (October Issue)
“Rates will rise as the Fed begins tapering. “Short-term interest rates will rise to 3% over the next two to three years, with the 10-year and 30-year rate likely to reach the 6% range,” according to Mike Niedermeyer of Wells Fargo Asset Management. He adds, “I think people will be surprised by the relative performance of equities over fixed income. Past decisions have forced a correlation between fixed income and equities but we could now have a return to negative correlation between fixed income and equities.”
Tags: Correlation, Equities, Fed, Fixed income, Interest rates, Niedermeyer, Performance, Tapering, Wells Fargo
Los Angeles Times (October 28)
“Policymakers are clear about their bond-buying goal, but the Street isn’t listening.” Current Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke stated publicly that quantitative easing would continue until unemployment falls to 6.5%. “If we generate 200,000 new jobs every month, tapering starts in November 2016. If we see an average of only 148,000 new jobs each month, we won’t ever see Fed tapering…. Tapering is still a long way off.”
Tags: Bernanke, Bond-buying, Fed, Jobs, Policymakers, Quantitative easing, Tapering, Unemployment, Wall Street
Financial Times (September 2)
Expectations of tapering by the Federal Reserve have “increased market volatility. And, as in past episodes of Fed tightening, emerging markets are at the centre of the turmoil…. No matter how gradual the tapering of QE, abrupt adjustments will occur. It is in the nature of financial markets to overreact and overshoot.”
Tags: Adjustments, Emerging markets, Expectations, Fed, Financial markets, Overreact, Quantitative easing, Tapering, Tightening, Volatility
Institutional Investor (August Issue)
Over the past decade, Brazil produced stellar returns. Internal strife and the looming tapering by the Federal Reserve are now, however, disrupting the long favorable investment environment. “Brazilian investors have not faced such uncertainty for many years. The country attracted investment because it appeared to be one of the most dynamic and politically stable emerging markets. The return of volatility will tax the ingenuity of Brazil’s money managers.”
Tags: Brazil, Dynamic, Emerging markets, Fed, Investment, Money manager, Returns, Stable, Tapering, Uncertainty, Volatility
The Economist (August 24)
Since the U.S. Federal Reserve intimated that it would begin tapering its quantitative easing program in 2013, “there has been a great sucking of funds from emerging markets. Currencies and shares have tumbled, from Brazil to Indonesia, but one country has been particularly badly hit.” India is looking less like “an economic miracle” and more like a country teetering on the verge of a full-blown crisis. “The rupee has tumbled by 13% in three months. The stockmarket is down by a quarter in dollar terms. Borrowing rates are at levels last seen after Lehman Brothers’ demise. Bank shares have sunk.”
Tags: Banks, Brazil, Crisis, Currencies, Emerging markets, Fed, India, Indonesia, Lehman Brothers, Miracle, Quantitative easing, Rupee, Shares, Stockmarket, Tapering, U.S.
Euromoney (August Issue)
According to economists, Indonesia’s economy may face a “double blow” from China and the U.S. “Indonesia is the emerging market most vulnerable to the consequences of the US Federal Reserve’s tapering of quantitative easing and to China’s economic slowdown.”
Tags: China, Economic slowdown, Emerging markets, Fed, Indonesia, Quantitative easing, Tapering, U.S., Vulnerable
Wall Street Journal (June 29)
“The real lesson of recent days concerns the Fed’s ability to exit from its extraordinary interventions. The mere hint that the Fed might eventually taper its bond purchases sent markets into anxious gyrations…. Imagine the uproar when the Fed finally decides to act, as it eventually must.”
