The Economist (February 1)
“Two things explain why a new infectious disease is so alarming. One is that, at first, it spreads exponentially…. conjuring speculation about a health-care collapse, social and economic upheaval and a deadly pandemic. The other is profound uncertainty. Sparse data and conflicting reports mean that scientists cannot rule out the worst case—and that lets bad information thrive.”
Tags: Alarming, Collapse, Deadly, Disease, Economic, Exponentially, Health care, Infectious, Pandemic, Social, Speculation, Uncertainty, Upheaval
Investment Week (November 18)
The Fed’s “180-degree policy U-turn…from tightening to loosening interest rates” has “increased uncertainty about monetary policy.” Another factor exacerbating matters is “the unpredictable and escalating trade war between the US and China.” Combined, they have “resulted in a higher frequency of volatility spikes and some violent sector rotation.”
Tags: China, Fed, Interest rates, Loosening, Monetary policy, Tightening, Trade war, U-turn, U.S., Uncertainty, Unpredictable, Volatility
Wall Street Journal (November 1)
In the U.S., “GDP growth accelerated to 3% for a time along with investment, but then came Mr. Trump’s trade interventions. More than the damage from tariffs, business confidence fell amid the uncertainty of what Mr. Trump might do next. This has led to slower growth that is reflected in roughly 2% GDP growth in the last two quarters…. The strong evidence is that trade policy is the main growth culprit.”
Tags: Business confidence, Culprit, Damage, GDP, Growth, Interventions, Investment, Tariffs, Trade, Trump, U.S., Uncertainty
Wall Street Journal (May 11)
The tariff spat with China “is a political trade risk the economy hasn’t faced since the 1930s, and no one knows where it might end.” Although there “will be many economic losers,” including U.S. farmers who are getting hit hard, “the broader cost is a continuation of policy uncertainty, as CEOs and investors can’t be sure about their supply chains, their cost of goods and raw material, or how long the tariff brawl will last.” Ultimately, “the impact on GDP is hard to calculate but it’s real.”
Tags: CEOs, China, Cost of goods, Economic losers, Economy, Farmers, Investors, Supply chains, Tariff, Trade risk, U.S., Uncertainty
Reuters (January 2)
“As U.S. and Chinese delegations prepare for upcoming trade talks in Beijing, the two countries’ disputes over tariffs and trade are rattling markets, businesses, governments, consumers and workers across the globe. All of this corrosive uncertainty was entirely predictable…. Elaborate negotiations take tenacity, expertise and planning. They also take time.”
Tags: Beijing, China, Corrosive, Delegations, Disputes, Expertise, Markets, Negotiations, Planning, Predictable, Rattling, Tariffs, Trade talks, U.S., Uncertainty
The Guardian (October 1)
“British manufacturers are pulling back sharply on investment plans due to mounting uncertainty over Brexit and growing fears of a global trade war,” with only a third of firms planning to “to increase their investment in plant and machinery – a record low.”
Tags: Brexit, Fears, Global trade war, Investment plans, Machinery, Manufacturers, Plant, Pulling back, UK, Uncertainty
Wall Street Journal (April 3)
“Donald Trump hasn’t been talking about the rising stock market lately, and no wonder. Stocks have given up their earlier gains since the President unveiled his protectionist trade agenda” amid concern over “uncertainty from rising trade tension.” So far, China’s response “is measured, affecting $3 billion in annual trade or about 2% of U.S. goods exports to China, but it sends a pointed message that a larger trade war would hurt American businesses, farmers in particular.” If China subsequently moves to target “America’s biggest exports to China, such as soybeans and Boeing aircraft,” the pain will be much greater.
Tags: Boeing, China, Concern, Exports, Farmers, Protectionist, Soybeans, Stock market, Trade, Trade war, Trump, U.S., Uncertainty
IPE Real Assets (October Issue)
With the uncertainty of Brexit, “REITs have been trading at discounts to net asset value (NAV) of around 15% to 25%.” Faced with scant opportunities, some are electing to return money to unitholders through buybacks or special dividends. But there is clearly a “disconnect between sentiment in the public markets and private markets.” As REITs encounter “limited opportunities in the office space, institutional investors, particularly global investors, have made many high-profile acquisitions.” This includes “the UK’s largest-ever office deal…in July when Hong Kong’s Infinitus Property Investment bought the iconic ‘Walkie Talkie’ building at 20 Fenchurch Street for £1.28bn.”
Tags: Acquisitions, Brexit, Buybacks, Disconnect, Discounts, Dividends, Hong Kong, Infinitus, Institutional investors, NAV, REITs, Sentiment, UK, Uncertainty, Unitholders
CNN (June 21)
“If ever there were a country in need of modernization, Saudi Arabia is it.” The newly named Crown Prince “is deeply committed to carrying major reforms to fruition. He embodies dynamism, youthful boldness and a vision of possibility. But the far-ranging changes he is bringing to the conservative kingdom and to the region carry risk and no guarantee of success. In a region roiled with instability, they add another element of uncertainty.”
Tags: Boldness, Conservative, Crown Prince, Instability, Modernization, Reforms, Risk, Saudi Arabia, Success, Uncertainty, Youthful
The Economist (March 2)
The planned $30 billion merger between Deutsche Börse (DB) and the London Stock Exchange (LSE) “had been billed as a bridge between Europe’s two main financial hubs.” In tatters, the merger now stands as “a symbol of their growing competition—and of the uncertainty into which Brexit has plunged the EU’s markets.”
Tags: Brexit EU, Competition, Deutsche Börse, Europe, Financial hubs, LSE, Markets, Merger, Tatters, Uncertainty
