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Reuters (November 1)

2018/ 11/ 02 by jd in Global News

Expect some Brexit volatility for the pound. “With less than five months until the marriage is due to end, the two sides have yet to finalise a divorce settlement and if none is made by the end of March,” the current consensus is that “sterling will fall to $1.20.” The same poll of economists predicted “the pound would bounce to $1.35 if a deal is made.”

 

Institutional Investor (April 4)

2018/ 04/ 06 by jd in Global News

On February 5, after a placid 2017, “the VIX surged from the previous trading day’s close of 17.3 to 37.3…the largest daily percentage increase in the three-decade history of the index, more than doubling in one day.” Some investors have been overreacting to the detriment of performance when they should be simply tuning out the noise. “Volatility can create a risk: that we reduce our market exposure at the point of maximum psychological pain; in other words, we sell at the bottom…. Sometimes the best thing we can do is simply nothing.”

 

The Economist (February 10)

2018/ 02/ 12 by jd in Global News

“America’s extraordinary economic gamble” is off to a rough start. “Fiscal policy is adding to demand even as the economy is running hot” and, seemingly as a result, volatility is back in a big way. “A long spell of calm, in which America’s stockmarket rose steadily without a big sell-off, ended abruptly this week.”

 

Barron’s (January 29)

2018/ 01/ 31 by jd in Global News

“Interest rates and volatility have been so low for so long that what was once abnormal is starting to look normal,” leading investment banks to adopt different approaches. Goldman has maintained its trading unit, “which lives or dies on volatility and which sealed Goldman’s reputation as the elite firm on Wall Street,” even though its revenue “has been reduced to crumbs.” In contrast, Morgan Stanley slashed the head count at its trading unit and has seen its market value surpass Goldman’s. But this could prove short-lived. “When trading conditions improve,” revenue from fixed income currency and commodities (FICC) “could bounce back quickly. No one else is as poised as Goldman to profit.”

 

Institutional Investor (October 2)

2016/ 10/ 03 by jd in Global News

The Securities Exchange Commission is conducting a pilot program to determine whether a wider tick range will help drive liquidity and research, while reducing volatility. “Proponents believe a wider spread–$0.05, instead of the current $0.01 on exchanges—will lead to more displayed liquidity and thus an easier trading regime.” Over the next two years, 400 stocks will trade at the widened tick, while 1,200 stocks will serve as a control and two other groups of 400 stocks will test the effects of other variations.

 

Institutional Investor (August 21)

2016/ 08/ 23 by jd in Global News

Black swan events “will continue to jolt global markets. But when even the best of human forecasters struggle to predict with accuracy the outcomes of these events, how can pension plans, for example, effectively make decisions to better weather the volatility that follows.” Big data may hold the key. “Using big data to track media sentiment, volume, tone and correlation can help institutional investors understand the diffusion of ideas and outliers that can serve as clues for unexpected risk.”

 

Institutional Investor (March 16)

2016/ 03/ 18 by jd in Global News

All eyes are on the Federal Reserve. Not because anybody expects them to change interest rates at today’s meeting, but because everybody wants a glimpse of the future. “Concerns over volatility around the globe and fragility in some sectors, notably energy and industrials, suggest that the Fed may signal a moderation of the pace of tightening…. A slower path for rates seems plausible as core inflation appears to be manageable.”

 

Wall Street Journal (February 12)

2016/ 02/ 13 by jd in Global News

Focusing on employment and rising wages, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen believes “the U.S. economy is in decent shape and would be even better if not for the blasted rest of the world.” Markets, on the other hand, “are looking at different signals that suggest the world economy continues to weaken.” For example, “global trade is no longer growing as rapidly as world GDP, which is the opposite of the historical pattern. Containers are piling up at the world’s ports.” Ms. Yellen may “turn out to be right” given market proclivity for volatility and overreaction.

 

Institutional Investor (February 1)

2016/ 02/ 02 by jd in Global News

There are some “stabilizing trends” underlying the recent market turbulence. “Stocks have taken a beating, but economic fundamentals in the U.S. remain strong. Look for volatility, and a rebound.”

 

Reuters (January 29)

2016/ 01/ 29 by jd in Global News

“The Bank of Japan unexpectedly cut a benchmark interest rate below zero on Friday, stunning investors with a move aimed at shielding the country’s sluggish economy from volatile markets and slowing global growth.”

 

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