Financial Times (March 14)
The Japanese stock market resembles “the ghost ship Mary Celeste.” Strewn around the decks are signs that the ship should be hopping with activity: the Topix index at a 14-month high, identifiable value stocks in abundance, a comfortably-positioned yen, fresh legalisation of casinos in the bag and a run of record share buybacks…. And yet there is silence.” Volumes have been low during the last three weeks and “overseas investors have been net sellers…with up to Y78bn leaving the index.” This suggests little wind remains in the Abenomics sails and, quite possibly, that traders are cautious ahead of developments from the Federal Reserve and Donald Trump. But it could also mean that overseas investors have written “Japan off as a credible, reform-minded play on global growth and domestic reflation.”
Tags: Abenomics, Buybacks, Casinos, Fed, Investors, Japan, Mary Celeste, Reflation, Topix, Trump Growth, Value stocks, Volumes, Yen
Financial Times (November 8)
Stung by the strong yen, over 100 TOPIX-listed manufacturers have issued profit warnings. Conventional cost cutting is no longer doing the trick. “After decades of building plants overseas and trying to make production leaner and more efficient to address the currency vulnerability, analysts say Japanese companies are facing a sobering reality: the urgency to sell underperforming businesses and join hands with rivals to survive brutal market conditions.”
Tags: Analysts, Cost cutting, Efficient, Japan, Leaner, Manufacturers, Overseas, Plants, Production, Profit warnings, Topix, Underperforming, Vulnerability, Yen
Bloomberg (October 5)
“Even though polls show a receding chance of Donald Trump becoming U.S. president, money managers wary of public opinion being proved wrong are increasingly looking toward Japan for an ideal hedge.” If Trump somehow pulls off a victory, it “could send cash flooding into the yen, which acts as a haven.”
Tags: Haven, Hedge, Japan, Money managers, Polls, President, Public opinion, Trump, U.S., Yen
Financial Times (June 30)
“The UK’s decision to leave the EU will not have any immediate, direct negative consequences for the ratings of states and major banks across Asia Pacific,” according to Fitch Ratings who also warned that “Japan could prove the exception…given the yen’s haven status and resultant strengthening posing a risk to policymakers’ planning.”
Tags: APAC, Banks, Brexit, Consequences, EU, Fitch, Haven Risk, Japan, Negative, Ratings, Sovereigns, UK, Yen
Bloomberg (June 20)
“Brexit stresses are seeping into virtually every corner of the global foreign-exchange market. Of 16 major currencies tracked by Bloomberg, all but three have seen a jump in the cost to hedge against big declines.” The Japanese yen Brazilian real and Swiss frank are the three exceptions.
Tags: Brazil, Brexit, Cost, Currencies, Declines, Forex, Hedge, Japan, Markets, Real, Switzerland, Yen
Bloomberg (April 11)
“For global equity investors and Shinzo Abe, it’s splitsville.” For 13 straight weeks during 2016, “foreign traders have been pulling out of Tokyo’s stock market.” They’ve dumped “$46 billion of shares as economic reports deteriorated, stimulus from the Bank of Japan backfired and the yen’s surge pressured exporters. The benchmark Topix index is down 18 percent in 2016, the world’s steepest declines behind Italy.”
Tags: Abe, BOJ, Equity investors, Exporters, Italy, Shares, Stock market, Tokyo, Topix, Traders, Yen
Bloomberg (February 12)
The Bank of Japan’s “decision to adopt negative interest rates has failed to rein in the currency’s advance.” In part, this is because money managers are advising wealthy families to favor the yen amid the turmoil in global financial markets. As a result, the yen is outperforming “all 31 other major currencies this year as Japan’s current-account surplus makes it attractive for investors seeking a haven.
Tags: Attractive, BOJ, Currency, Current-account, Haven, Interest rates, Investors, Japan, Money managers, Outperforming, Turmoil, Wealthy, Yen
The Economist (January 9)
“Japan is the best example” of how currency devaluations no longer seem to provide economies with much of a boost. “The yen has been depreciating rapidly. A Big Mac was 20% cheaper in Japan than in America in 2013; now it is 37% cheaper. Yet export volumes have barely budged…. This is a surprise: the IMF calculates that Japanese exports are around 20% lower than it would have expected, given how the yen has weakened.”
Tags: Big Mac, Boost, Currency devaluation, Depreciating, Export volumes, IMF, Japan, U.S., Yen
Bloomberg (January 4)
“For the first year since 1989, foreigners sold Japanese stocks and missed a rally.” The TOPIX index gained 8.9% in dollars and 21% in euros, but overseas investors missed out on some gains by offloading more than 250 billion yen in Japanese shares last year. “The Topix capped a 9.9 percent gain in local-currency terms last year, its fourth straight annual increase. Combined with the yen’s resilience, that meant that the Topix outperformed the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index in dollars for the first time since 2008” and its “gain in euros was triple that of the Stoxx Europe 600 Index.”
Tags: 1989, Dollars, Euros, Foreigners, Gains, Increase, Japan, Offloading, Rally, S&P 500, Stocks, Stoxx Europe 600, Topix, Yen
Bloomberg (December 1)
Not everyone is in line with the consensus view that the yen will weaken to 126 per dollar by the end of 2016. Among the most bullish, Morgan Stanley “expects Japan’s currency to strengthen to 115 against the greenback.” Factors behind this forecast include the historic weakness of the yen, the need for Japanese pension funds to repatriate money, improvement in Japan’s economy and a general overestimation of the BOJ’s commitment to monetary easing.
Tags: Bullish, Consensus view, Dollar, Economy, Japan, Monetary easing, Morgan Stanley, Pension funds, Yen
