Washington Post (January 14)
“The China bubble has burst,” but the nation’s trajectory remains unclear. “The worst outcome—a doomsday scenario—would have China fostering worldwide deflation. Its growth would continue to deteriorate sharply, extending the decline in commodity prices and the weakness of global trade. Around the world, there would be more production cuts, layoffs and bankruptcies.”
Tags: Bankruptcies, Bubble, Burst, China, Commodity prices, Deflation, Doomsday, Global trade, Layoffs, Outcome, Production cuts, Unclear, Worst
Bloomberg (June 17)
“It’s no longer a question of whether China’s stock-market rally is a bubble, but when the bubble will burst That’s the refrain from a growing number of analysts as valuations climb to levels that by some measures already exceed the peak of China’s last equity mania in 2007.”
Tags: Analysts, Bubble, China, Equity, Rally, Stock market, Valuations
Forbes (March 13)
“Like Iceland in its heyday, Singapore’s economic stability and vitality – on the surface at least – has made it the envy of the world at a time when most Western economies are languishing with feeble growth, and high rates of unemployment and poverty.” And, just like Iceland, the Switzerland of Asia will suffer when its economic bubble is punctured. In the meantime, “Singapore’s bubble economy may continue inflating for several more years if the U.S. Fed Funds Rate and SIBOR continue to be held at such low levels.”
Tags: Asia, Bubble, Economic stability, Fed, Growth, Iceland, Poverty, SIBOR, Singapore, Switzerland, U.S., Unemployment, Western economies
Financial Times (January 6, 2014)
After spectacular performance in 2012, some fear the U.S. stock market is set for a correction. “For now, these worries are probably overstated. The current outlook has little in common with the rampant overconfidence that accompanied the great speculative excesses of the past. But there are reasons to believe that the preconditions for a bubble are in place.”
Tags: Bubble, Excess, Outlook, Overconfidence, Performance, Stock market, U.S., Worries
Financial Times (August 7)Financial Times (August 7)
Gold has risen to $1,900 an ounce from $280 a decade ago. “The total market value of all the gold in existence…exceeds the combined capitalisation of the German, Chinese and Japanese stock markets.” When the gold bubble will end remains a question, but by some yardsticks it’s nearing a correction. “Gold is at a 120-year high (at least) relative to US house prices. Likewise, it is at a 74-year high relative to US wages, at multi-generation highs relative to wheat, coffee and cocoa.”
“Trust has broken down between IPO vendors and issuers and traditional investors in new stock offerings in Europe. Deal arrangers seem incapable of bridging the valuation gap between the two sides.” Issuer focus on achieving high valuation is colliding with investor expectation to buy at a discount. As a result, 50% of Europe’s large planned IPOs failed this year. The situation is only slightly better for IPOs of all sizes. “In the first seven months of this year, 143 initial public offerings were priced for European issuers, while 50 others, over one-third as many, were either announced and then postponed or launched and then pulled. That’s a very high failure rate.”
Wall Street Journal (June 6)
“To the Chinese stock market and property bubbles, now add the whisky bubble.” Scotch is “the tipple of choice for the ultra-wealthy class” in China. In many ways this bubble mirrors Japan’s similar bubble of the 1970s and 1980s. Spirit makers are being cautioned they might be left with a hangover if the bubble bursts.“To the Chinese stock market and property bubbles, now add the whisky bubble.” Scotch is “the tipple of choice for the ultra-wealthy class” in China. In many ways this bubble mirrors Japan’s similar bubble of the 1970s and 1980s. Spirit makers are being cautioned they might be left with a hangover if the bubble bursts.
Economist (April 28)
U.S. home prices have rapidly corrected, having “lost nearly all the real gains they notched up in the bubble period.” In contrast, the correction has been slower in Europe. “British, Irish and Spanish house prices are still well above their “fundamental” value, while those in America are about right.”
U.S. home prices have rapidly corrected, they “have lost nearly all the real gains they notched up in the bubble period.” In contrast, the correction has been slower in Europe. “British, Irish and Spanish house prices are still well above their “fundamental” value, while those in America are about right.”
Tags: Bubble, Correction, Housing prices, Ireland, Spain, U.S., UK
New York Times (December 27)
“China’s housing bubble appears to be imploding, steel production is falling along with the demand for new construction and real estate developers are tottering, putting banks at risk.” A hard landing in China would be a blow to the world economy. It could also spark a trade war and this could be the “bigger risk” as China tries to prop up its domestic economy by subsidizing exports and discouraging imports.
New York Times (December 18)
China’s bubble appears to be bursting “and there are real reasons to fear financial and economic crisis.” The biggest is that “a world economy already suffering from the mess in Europe really, really doesn’t need a new epicenter of crisis.”
China’s bubble appears to be bursting “and there are real reasons to fear financial and economic crisis.” The biggest is that “a world economy already suffering from the mess in Europe really, really doesn’t need a new epicenter of crisis.”
Tags: Bubble, China, Crisis, Europe, Global economy
New York Times (November 8)
“Is there reason to fear that Americans will save too assiduously, as the Japanese did…to the point where the economy never goes back to what we consider normal?” The experts are divided. University of Tokyo professor Takatoshi Ito states, “Japan cannot be held up as a positive role model.” M.I.T. Sloan professor Simon Johnson points out, “Japan never experienced high unemployment. Perhaps we should envy and attempt to learn from their experience, rather than disparaging it.” And Morgan Stanley’s Stephen S. Roach asserts “it’s far too late to argue that the U.S. economy hasn’t fallen into a Japanese-like quagmire. Like Japan, we allowed asset bubbles to distort our real economy….”
