Foreign Policy (February 20)
“Children born in the year of the dragon are considered lucky.” This is, however, unlikely to cause a bump” in China’s birthrate during 2024, which is “likely to see fewer births than any previous year of the dragon.” From 2011 (the last year of the dragon), the nation’s birthrate has dropped from 13.27 children to “just 6.39 children per 1,000 people” last year. The precipitous fall suggests “this year of the dragon may be a bit of a bust as people in China shy away from the soaring costs of child-rearing despite government propaganda pushing women to have more children and to stop working to raise them.”
Tags: Birthrate, Bump, Bust, Child-rearing, Children, China, Dragon, Fall suggests, Government, Lucky, Precipitous, Propaganda, Soaring costs, Women
Bloomberg (February 19)
China’s Communist Party appears poised to “play a bigger role in steering its vast technology industry, the latest sign that Beijing intends to exert more influence over swathes of the world’s No. 2 economy.” In response, shares in the nation’s listed chipmakers “slid more than 2% as investors pondered the ramifications of greater state control, which has yielded mixed results so far.”
Tags: Beijing, China, Chipmakers, Communist party, Influence, Investors, Mixed results, No. 2 economy, Ramifications, Shares, State control, Steering. Technology industry
The Economist (February 10)
“This year investors in Chinese stocks have been on a hair-raising ride. Even as America’s S&P 500 index reached record highs, markets in China and Hong Kong shed $1.5trn in January alone…. The decline signals a fundamental problem. Investors abroad and at home once saw China’s government as a dependable steward of the economy. Now this trust has seeped away, with severe consequences for China’s growth.”
Tags: $1.5trn, China, Consequences, Decline, Dependable, Economy, Government, Growth, Hair raising, Hong Kong, Investors, Markets, S&P 500, Steward, Stocks, Trust
Forbes (February 9)
“Economists are struggling to put China’s epic $7 trillion stock crash in perspective. The best size and scope may be that, since 2021, the market has lost the combined gross domestic product of Japan and France.” But that’s not even the worst news out of China. Beijing is now “on the lookout for those disseminating negative views on China’s economic and market prospects. This chilling warning not to ‘denigrate China’s economy’ via ‘false narratives’ is Mao Zedong, not Adam Smith. And it raises troubling questions as China’s influence soars.”
Tags: $7 trillion, Adam Smith, Chilling warning, China, Denigrate, Economists, False narratives, France Disseminating, GDP, Influence, Japan, Mao Zedong, Negative views, Prospects, Stock crash, Troubling
South China Morning Post (February 7)
“China’s state security ministry has stepped forward to warn those who disseminate ‘short’ views on the country’s economic and market prospects.” Based on this year’s performance, “excessive information manipulation has backfired and frightened away investors” from Chinese stocks on the Shanghai and Hong Kong exchanges. “To investors, a one-sided story, no matter how good it may look on the surface, is not trustworthy if there’s no counter-balance…. The rational response would be to stay away.”
Tags: ‘Short’ views, Backfired, China, Counter-balance, Frightened, Hong Kong, Information, Investors, Manipulation, Performance, Prospects, Security ministry, Shanghai, Stocks, Trustworthy, Warn
Reuters (February 5)
“Prolonged factory deflation is threatening the survival of smaller Chinese exporters who are locked in relentless price wars for shrinking business as higher interest rates abroad and rising trade protectionism squeeze demand.” Fifteen months of falling producer prices have crushed “profit margins to the point where industrial output and jobs are now at risk,” further “compounding China’s economic woes, which include a property crisis and debt crunch.”
Tags: China, Demand, Economic woes, Exporters, Factory deflation, Interest rates, Jobs, Output, Price wars, Producer prices, Profit margins, Prolonged, Property crisis, Relentless, Risk, Survival, Threatening, Trade protectionism
South China Morning Post (January 29)
At Davos, Chinese Premier Li Qiang provided WEF delegates with an “early and unexpected disclosure… China’s gross domestic product (GDP) had grown by 5.2 per cent in 2023.” This didn’t come across as powerfully convincing evidence that China’s economy is again healthy. Worries remain about China and its economy. “Challenges related to national security, data flows and market barriers still dominate hearts and minds in decision-making.”
Tags: 2023, 5.2%, Challenges, China, Data flows, Davos, Disclosure, Dominate, Economy, GDP, Li Qiang, Market barriers, National security, Premier, WEF, Worries
BBC (January 28)
“Debt-ridden Chinese property giant Evergrande has been ordered to liquidate by a court in Hong Kong.” Evergrande initially “sent shockwaves through global financial markets” when it defaulted in 2021. Since then, it has remained “the poster child of China’s real estate crisis with over $325bn (£256bn) of liabilities.” The most recent court decision does not necessarily mean “Evergrande will go bust and collapse,” but it is expected “to send ripples through China’s financial markets at a time when authorities are trying to curb a stock market sell-off.”
Tags: 2021, China, Collapse, Court, Crisis, Debt-ridden, Defaulted, Evergrande, Financial markets, Hong Kong, Liabilities, Liquidate, Real estate, Ripples, Shockwaves
Bloomberg (January 26)
In the “race for world’s biggest economy,” the U.S. has extended its “lead over china.” U.S. GDP “rose 6.3% in nominal terms…last year, outpacing China’s 4.6% gain.” Some of that is due to inflation, but the result “underscores a broader point: The US economy is emerging from the pandemic period in a better place than China’s.”
Tags: Better, China, Economy, Emerging, GDP, Inflation, Lead, Outpacing, Pandemic, Race, U.S., World
Barron’s (January 24)
“The continued slide in Chinese stocks toward lows set more than a decade ago may be mobilizing Beijing’s policymakers into action. But it isn’t clear if it will be enough to help the country’s embattled economy or improve sentiment in a meaningful way.”
Tags: Action, Beijing, China, Clear, Economy, Embattled, Lows, Meaningful, Mobilizing, Policymakers, Sentiment, Slide, Stocks
