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Wall Street Journal (January 15)

2023/ 01/ 16 by jd in Global News

“Despite signs that inflation has started to recede, economists still expect higher interest rates to push the U.S. economy into a recession in the coming year…. On average, business and academic economists polled by the Journal put the probability of a recession in the next 12 months at 61%, little changed from 63% in October’s survey.”

 

Wall Street Journal (January 2)

2023/ 01/ 03 by jd in Global News

Citing “red flags” like housing market decline, the spend down of pandemic savings, and tighter bank lending standards, “more than two-thirds of the economists at 23 large financial institutions that do business directly with the Federal Reserve are betting the U.S. will have a recession in 2023. Two others are predicting a recession in 2024.”

 

CNBC (November 13)

2022/ 11/ 15 by jd in Global News

As large U.S. retailers report earnings, inventory levels will dominate the gaze of analysts and investors. Retailers including Walmart, Target and Gap “are trying to sell through a glut of extra merchandise piling up in store backrooms and warehouses…. Balancing inventory has taken on additional urgency, as economists warn of dwindling savings accounts, rising credit card debt and the risk of a recession.”

 

Wall Street Journal (November 1)

2022/ 11/ 03 by jd in Global News

The European Union’s statistics agency released figures that surprised most economists. “Consumer prices were 10.7% higher in October than a year earlier.” This marks “the fastest rate of increase since records began in 1997, two years before the euro was launched,” while at the national level “Germany’s measure of inflation was the highest since December 1951.”

 

Forbes (October 18)

2022/ 10/ 19 by jd in Global News

“Home builder confidence plunged for a tenth straight month in October as rising interest rates continued to weaken housing demand—prompting economists to warn an unexpected rise in new home sales last month may be short-lived and prices may be on the brink of collapse.”

 

Washington Post (July 26)

2022/ 07/ 28 by jd in Global News

“The U.S. economy is caught in an awkward, painful place. A confusing one, too. Growth appears to be sputtering, home sales are tumbling and economists warn of a potential recession ahead. But consumers keep spending, businesses keep posting profits and the economy keeps adding hundreds of thousands of jobs a month.”

 

Fortune (April 24)

2022/ 04/ 24 by jd in Global News

The U.S. may be experiencing “the hottest housing market ever recorded. Over the past 12 months, U.S. home prices are up a staggering 19.2%.” Analysts expected the market “would lose some steam” in 2022, but that “hasn’t come to fruition—yet.” Instead, things have actually “gotten a bit hotter, with housing inventory on Zillow down 52% from pre-pandemic levels.” All of this leaves “a growing chorus of economists speculating that if home price growth doesn’t abate soon, the housing market could eventually overheat. Or worse: We could wind up in another full-fledged housing bubble.”

 

Wall Street Journal (August 23)

2021/ 08/ 23 by jd in Global News

The Government of Japan “is already on the hook to pay out nearly $10 trillion to its creditors.” This may appear *an impossibly large sum to rustle up” when annual tax collections amount to “less than $600 billion.” But today’s “economists talk more about the risk of issuing too little debt” and the U.S. may soon follow Japan’s lead. “Congress is debating trillions of dollars more in proposed spending that would push America’s borrowing toward levels policy makers in Tokyo have long embraced.”

 

The Week (May 23)

2021/ 05/ 25 by jd in Global News

In April, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose more sharply than it has in 13 years, “putting data behind the warnings that many economists and businesses have been issuing for weeks.” Inflation is dramatically here. “The question is how long it will stay.” The increase may stem from random coincidences (like a pipeline shut down and insufficient chip supply) or they could be transient symptoms of economic rebooting. But the upward swing might also prove harbinger of runaway inflation to come.

 

Wall Street Journal (March 29)

2021/ 03/ 30 by jd in Global News

“The downward trend in personal bankruptcies bucks predictions by analysts and economists that disruptions from Covid-19 lockdowns and restrictions early in the pandemic would lead to a sharp increase in filings. Economists and bankruptcy lawyers say federal suspensions of evictions, home foreclosures and student-loan obligations have helped limit bankruptcies—though they worry bankruptcy rates could go up after aid ends.”

 

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