Foreign Policy (February 20)
“Children born in the year of the dragon are considered lucky.” This is, however, unlikely to cause a bump” in China’s birthrate during 2024, which is “likely to see fewer births than any previous year of the dragon.” From 2011 (the last year of the dragon), the nation’s birthrate has dropped from 13.27 children to “just 6.39 children per 1,000 people” last year. The precipitous fall suggests “this year of the dragon may be a bit of a bust as people in China shy away from the soaring costs of child-rearing despite government propaganda pushing women to have more children and to stop working to raise them.”
Tags: Birthrate, Bump, Bust, Child-rearing, Children, China, Dragon, Fall suggests, Government, Lucky, Precipitous, Propaganda, Soaring costs, Women
The Economist (February 10)
“This year investors in Chinese stocks have been on a hair-raising ride. Even as America’s S&P 500 index reached record highs, markets in China and Hong Kong shed $1.5trn in January alone…. The decline signals a fundamental problem. Investors abroad and at home once saw China’s government as a dependable steward of the economy. Now this trust has seeped away, with severe consequences for China’s growth.”
Tags: $1.5trn, China, Consequences, Decline, Dependable, Economy, Government, Growth, Hair raising, Hong Kong, Investors, Markets, S&P 500, Steward, Stocks, Trust
Wall Street Journal (January 17)
“China last year ceded its centuries-old position as the world’s most populous country to India.” Births in 2023 fell by over half a million, “to just over 9 million in total, accelerating the decline in the country’s population as women shrugged off the government’s exhortations to reproduce.”
Tags: 2023, Accelerating, Births, Ceded, China, Decline, Exhortations, Government, India, Population, Populous, Shrugged, Women
Euromoney (November 29)
“The travails of Zhongzhi, a key player in China’s poorly regulated $3 trillion shadow financing market, underline why a future crisis in the country is more likely, not less.” The government “continues to let problems mount perilously before stepping in… and to kick cans down roads in the hope that unsteady local banks will resolve bad-debt woes or find their own way out of insolvency…. Eventually, one of these financial mini-crises will mutate into a real monster. One that it cannot control.”
Tags: $3 trillion, Bad-debt woes, Banks, China, Control, Crisis, Government, https://www.euromoney.com/article/2cile3c8qd50c9ovnnrwg/opinion/zhongzhi-shows-chinas-fear-of-losing-control Travails, Insolvency, Perilously, Poorly regulated, Shadow financing, Zhongzhi
Reuters (November 24)
“The German government is working hard to demonstrate the foolishness of the country’s iron-clad ban on large budget deficits.” Though it is suspending the “debt brake” for 2023, “the welcome relief is only temporary, and the harm is done. The budget crisis will cripple the economy for years to come.”
Tags: 2023, Ban, Budget deficits, Cripple, Crisis, Debt brake, Economy, Foolishness, German, Government, Harm, Iron-clad, Relief, Suspending, Temporary
Financial Times (November 23)
“China’s repeated attempts to tackle its worsening property crisis resemble firework displays — full of light and sound, quickly extinguished. Property stock prices have burst upwards with each new set of government measures to boost the market, only to collapse shortly thereafter. This week’s rally should not differ.”
Tags: Attempts, Boost, Burst, China, Collapse, Crisis, Extinguished, Fireworks, Government, Market, Property, Stock prices, Tackle, Worsening
Financial Times (September 28)
“Another tediously pointless, economically debilitating and teeth-gratingly stupid US government shutdown is looming. Goldman Sachs now reckons that there is now a 90 per cent chance it starts this Sunday.”
Tags: 90%, Debilitating, Goldman Sachs, Government, Looming, Pointless, Shutdown, Stupid, Sunday, U.S.
Irish Times (September 10)
Some are hoping government stimulus will jumpstart the Chinese economy. “The more likely scenario is continued weak growth.” What remains to be seen is “is how quickly the government will shift away from stimulus measures to a faster fundamental overhaul of its growth strategy.” China needs to tackle “more persistent and structural growth challenges,” which have resulted from “an economic strategy that has historically over-relied on real estate, high local debt, inefficient state-owned enterprises, lower-end manufacturing, and domestic consumer internet platforms.”
Tags: Challenges, China, Economy, Government, Growth strategy, Inefficient, Jumpstart, Manufacturing, Overhaul, Persistent, Real estate, State-owned enterprises, Stimulus, Structural, Weak
The Economist (August 24)
“Whatever has gone wrong? After China rejoined the world economy in 1978, it became the most spectacular growth story in history…. Yet instead of roaring back after the government abandoned its ‘zero-covid’ policy at the end of 2022, it is lurching from one ditch to the next.” It is unlikely to be fixed soon because “an increasingly autocratic government is making bad decisions.”
Tags: 1978, 2022, Autocratic, Bad decisions, China, Fixed, Government, Growth story, Lurching, Rejoined, Spectacular, World economy, Wrong, Zero-Covid
Investment Week (June 28)
“Confidence in the UK meeting its legally-binding decarbonisation targets from 2030 onwards has fallen ‘markedly’, the Climate Change Committee (CCC) has today warned in a landmark report that delivers a damning verdict on the paucity of new climate action from the government over the past 12 months.” The report concludes “the government now faces a huge uphill challenge to attract the necessary green investment and get decarbonisation progress back on track this decade so as to ensure legally binding emissions targets are met.”
Tags: 2030, CCC, Climate action, Confidence, Decarbonisation, Emissions targets, Government, Green investment, Legally-binding, UK, Uphill