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Wall Street Journal (March 25)

2024/ 03/ 26 by jd in Global News

“Annual issuance of U.S. Treasurys has exploded, nearly doubling since the pandemic began. The government sold a record $23 trillion worth in 2023.” This makes people “nervous” because “rapid growth in markets from tech stocks to mortgage bonds has ended badly in the past.” Given their ubiquity and potentially “unforeseen consequences,” any instability in the Treasury market “could rapidly spread” to other markets.

 

Foreign Policy (March 22)

2024/ 03/ 23 by jd in Global News

Cuba “is experiencing its worst economic crisis since the end of the Cold War,” and the public is becoming more dismissive to government attempts to assign blame to outside interference. “The fresh demonstrations show that Havana’s role in the economic crisis has become more central in the public eye.” But “whether negative public opinion can lead to political change is another question.”

 

Foreign Policy (February 20)

2024/ 02/ 22 by jd in Global News

“Children born in the year of the dragon are considered lucky.” This is, however, unlikely to cause a bump” in China’s birthrate during 2024, which is “likely to see fewer births than any previous year of the dragon.” From 2011 (the last year of the dragon), the nation’s birthrate has dropped from 13.27 children to “just 6.39 children per 1,000 people” last year. The precipitous fall suggests “this year of the dragon may be a bit of a bust as people in China shy away from the soaring costs of child-rearing despite government propaganda pushing women to have more children and to stop working to raise them.”

 

The Economist (February 10)

2024/ 02/ 13 by jd in Global News

“This year investors in Chinese stocks have been on a hair-raising ride. Even as America’s S&P 500 index reached record highs, markets in China and Hong Kong shed $1.5trn in January alone…. The decline signals a fundamental problem. Investors abroad and at home once saw China’s government as a dependable steward of the economy. Now this trust has seeped away, with severe consequences for China’s growth.”

 

Wall Street Journal (January 17)

2024/ 01/ 18 by jd in Global News

“China last year ceded its centuries-old position as the world’s most populous country to India.” Births in 2023 fell by over half a million, “to just over 9 million in total, accelerating the decline in the country’s population as women shrugged off the government’s exhortations to reproduce.”

 

Euromoney (November 29)

2023/ 11/ 29 by jd in Global News

“The travails of Zhongzhi, a key player in China’s poorly regulated $3 trillion shadow financing market, underline why a future crisis in the country is more likely, not less.” The government “continues to let problems mount perilously before stepping in… and to kick cans down roads in the hope that unsteady local banks will resolve bad-debt woes or find their own way out of insolvency…. Eventually, one of these financial mini-crises will mutate into a real monster. One that it cannot control.”

 

Reuters (November 24)

2023/ 11/ 26 by jd in Global News

“The German government is working hard to demonstrate the foolishness of the country’s iron-clad ban on large budget deficits.” Though it is suspending the “debt brake” for 2023, “the welcome relief is only temporary, and the harm is done. The budget crisis will cripple the economy for years to come.”

 

Financial Times (November 23)

2023/ 11/ 25 by jd in Global News

“China’s repeated attempts to tackle its worsening property crisis resemble firework displays — full of light and sound, quickly extinguished. Property stock prices have burst upwards with each new set of government measures to boost the market, only to collapse shortly thereafter. This week’s rally should not differ.”

 

Financial Times (September 28)

2023/ 09/ 30 by jd in Global News

“Another tediously pointless, economically debilitating and teeth-gratingly stupid US government shutdown is looming. Goldman Sachs now reckons that there is now a 90 per cent chance it starts this Sunday.”

 

Irish Times (September 10)

2023/ 09/ 11 by jd in Global News

Some are hoping government stimulus will jumpstart the Chinese economy. “The more likely scenario is continued weak growth.” What remains to be seen is “is how quickly the government will shift away from stimulus measures to a faster fundamental overhaul of its growth strategy.” China needs to tackle “more persistent and structural growth challenges,” which have resulted from “an economic strategy that has historically over-relied on real estate, high local debt, inefficient state-owned enterprises, lower-end manufacturing, and domestic consumer internet platforms.”

 

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