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The Economist (November 3)

2018/ 11/ 05 by jd in Global News

It’s “sunrise in Tokyo… After three decades out of fashion, the country’s companies are ready for a revival.” At last, “Japan’s stock market is poised for a comeback.” Japan has had and still has its detractors, but “for the first time in years, Japanese companies are playing a tune that investors are able to whistle.”

 

Financial Times (October 21)

2018/ 10/ 23 by jd in Global News

“Investors should expect decades of selling pressure on Japanese stocks from the most implacable bears in the market: the recently deceased…. The relentless sell-off, which threatens to intensify until the year 2040 as the huge, wealthy postwar baby boom generation expires, arises from an estimate that about 80 per cent of inherited shares are immediately sold by heirs.”

 

Reuters (October 17)

2018/ 10/ 18 by jd in Global News

“Financial markets have some things in common with professional sport. Investors and fans are both desperate for winners and despondent about losing. They are passionate about little ups and downs, while outsiders often find the rules arcane and the enthusiasm weird. And for both, all the jumping and screaming has little effect on the rest of the economy.”

 

CNN (October 8)

2018/ 10/ 10 by jd in Global News

“Wall Street’s top activist investors are raising lots of cash and gearing up for battle over the next year…. The group see more opportunity to disrupt the consumer discretionary sector, which includes retailers, than in any other industry.”

 

Wall Street Journal (October 3)

2018/ 10/ 05 by jd in Global News

“Investors propelled bond yields to multiyear highs Wednesday as robust economic data and an easing of trade tensions across North America sparked fresh optimism about the global growth outlook. Wednesday’s bond rout sent the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note, a closely watched barometer of investors’ sentiment toward growth and inflation, to its highest level since July 2011.”

 

IPE Real Assets (September/October Issue)

2018/ 10/ 01 by jd in Global News

“Real estate is often said to be a long-term, buy-and-hold asset class for institutional investors. But the success of investments invariably comes down to getting the timing right.” Recently, “a handful of fund managers” have “sold to bigger parties, either fully or partially.” This raises the question whether the latest round of M&A is a signal. Though it is a “possible canary,” there are other reasons for M&A. The prevailing outlook amongst investors and managers is for “a supportive market environment in the short to medium term” and “an extended cycle, albeit a flat one in terms of capital value growth.”

 

The Economist (September 15)

2018/ 09/ 17 by jd in Global News

“Debt stalks Africa once again. Over the past six years sub-Saharan governments have issued $81bn in dollar bonds to investors hungry for yield. Piled on top of this are murkier syndicated loans and bilateral debts, many to China and tied to big construction projects. Public debt has climbed above 50% of GDP in half the countries in sub-Saharan Africa. The risk of a crisis is growing.”

 

Reuters (August 29)

2018/ 08/ 30 by jd in Global News

“The prospect of a no-deal Brexit is becoming increasingly feasible in the eyes of investors who are hedging against the risk of the currency tanking if Britain is left isolated from the EU, its largest trading partner.” Bank of America Merrill Lynch has warned that central bank selling of more than 100 billion pounds in reserves “could be a major catalyst for a significant sterling downturn” should the UK leave the EU without a deal.

 

Barrons (August 13)

2018/ 08/ 15 by jd in Global News

“Turkey makes up less than 1% of the emerging markets index, but its small size hasn’t kept it from creating big ripples during the dog days of summer. Most investors are steering clear of Turkey, as it grapples with the fallout from years of binging on dollar-denominated debt, but the bigger question is who else could get caught up in Turkey’s crisis.”

 

New York Times (August 9)

2018/ 08/ 11 by jd in Global News

The $30 trillion U.S. stock market hogs the attention, but “the larger domestic debt market—at around $41 trillion for the bond market alone—reveals more about our nation’s financial health. And right now, the debt market is broadcasting a dangerous message: Investors, desperate for debt instruments that pay high interest, have been overpaying for riskier and riskier obligations….  with little concern that bonds can be every bit as dangerous to own as stocks.” The mispricing of risk is still rampant and when spreads rise and defaults begin, “trillions of dollars in invested capital could be lost.” Although, we’re not necessarily “on the verge of a recession. But the corporate debt bubble inevitably will play a role in causing it.”

 

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