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Reuters (August 29)

2018/ 08/ 30 by jd in Global News

“The prospect of a no-deal Brexit is becoming increasingly feasible in the eyes of investors who are hedging against the risk of the currency tanking if Britain is left isolated from the EU, its largest trading partner.” Bank of America Merrill Lynch has warned that central bank selling of more than 100 billion pounds in reserves “could be a major catalyst for a significant sterling downturn” should the UK leave the EU without a deal.

 

BBC (August 23)

2018/ 08/ 25 by jd in Global News

Brexit is “akin to attempting to remove an egg from an omelette” and if there’s not a deal, it’s likely to become an even bigger mess. “Today’s “no deal” papers reveal the complicated exercise could carry significant costs for consumers and businesses if Britain and the EU fail to agree on a transition period and a subsequent trading agreement.” Failure to reach a deal would “very likely to have a negative impact on the economy and could mean higher prices in the shops as firms pass on the higher costs of doing business.”

 

Reuters (August 9)

2018/ 08/ 10 by jd in Global News

“The last thing the Bank of England wants right now, one suspects, is a precipitous fall in the value of the pound. Yet with the worst Brexit fears intensifying, that’s exactly what it may have to brace for.”

 

LA Times (July 12)

2018/ 07/ 14 by jd in Global News

“A visit from The Donald is the last thing England needs right now.” There’s a heat wave, wild fires, Britain’s loss in the World Cup, but most of all, it’s the ongoing turmoil over Britain’s departure from the European Union that will set the backdrop to the Descent of the Donald; an event which, for our embattled prime minister, Theresa May, must seem distinctly hellish.”

 

The Independent (July 3)

2018/ 07/ 05 by jd in Global News

“Any plan to rely on American trade to make up for the loss of EU benefits caused by Brexit are now merely a fantasy. Ironically, the push to remain in the EU might benefit from the US’s lurch toward insanity; the Brexit vote came when people assumed America would have a rational leader at the helm.”

 

Institutional Investor (June 27)

2018/ 06/ 29 by jd in Global News

“Further escalation between the U.S. and China could make U.S. Treasuries less dependable.” But that’s only the tip of the iceberg. “Every trade is financed…. Trade and capital flows are part and parcel of a complex system. Mess with trade flows and there will be ‘unintended’ impacts on capital flows. Equally, disturb capital flow and there will be an impact on trade flows.” As trade issues also flare up with NAFTA and Brexit, it’s “no wonder equity markets are volatile.”

 

The Economist (June 16)

2018/ 06/ 18 by jd in Global News

“The Irish border presents a near-insurmountable roadblock to a hard exit. With less than six months of negotiating time left, it is becoming clear that Brexit will be softer than Mrs May set out. That is good news for Europe and for Britain.”

 

The Guardian (June 11)

2018/ 06/ 13 by jd in Global News

“The worst possible Brexit, a potentially catastrophic no-deal, now looks increasingly possible—just at the very moment when the G7 debacle shows the vital importance of international cooperation. The Brexit project is like a clapped-out car wobbling and wheezing towards the finishing line next year with wheels and bits of bodywork falling off as the line approaches….  There is still time to dump the car.”

 

Institutional Investors (June 11)

2018/ 06/ 13 by jd in Global News

“When the U.K. secedes from the EU, it will abandon 70 years of globalization. It will turn away from a world order that increasingly relies on supranational institutions to check the power of extremely wealthy individuals and corporations like Apple and Facebook, with market capitalizations far bigger than the GDPs of most nations.” The potential consequences of Brexit leave many in the City of London feeling threatened, but there is “a coterie of hard-right, wealthy businessmen” who are delighted about “rolling back globalization to protect their positions of power — all in the name of populism.”

 

Reuters (June 7)

2018/ 06/ 08 by jd in Global News

“Despite a torrid start to 2018 and with Brexit uncertainties looming large, British blue-chip stocks have jumped to record highs thanks to a weak pound, a torrent of mergers and acquisitions, and bouts of political anxiety in the euro zone.” This is less the result of long-term optimism and more a re-calibration that UK  positions had been marked down excessively.

 

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