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Bloomberg (September 19)

2018/ 09/ 21 by jd in Global News

“Trump has badly miscalculated Xi’s willingness to endure a lot of economic suffering to avoid surrender. Trump has also miscalculated who will be hurt by his tariffs; in many cases it will be American consumers and companies.”

 

Straits Times (September 18)

2018/ 09/ 19 by jd in Global News

On Monday,  Donald Trump “effectively broadsided one of the world’s largest trade relationships, announcing plans to proceed with tariffs on another US$200 billion in US imports of Chinese goods.” Combined with previous tariffs, “this means roughly half of everything Americans buy from China…is now subject to punitive import duties. Whole industrial sectors stand to feel the effects, including agriculture, manufacturing, textiles and retail.”

 

LA Times (September 17)

2018/ 09/ 18 by jd in Global News

“A U.S.-China tariff war is sure to produce very real economic consequences, and political fallout, in both nations…. Whatever else one might think of President Trump’s actions, he is confronting China about its unfair trade practices and theft of American intellectual property when too many others shy away from the truth for fear of Chinese reprisal.”

 

Time (September 13)

2018/ 09/ 15 by jd in Global News

“The United States may have reclaimed the title of the world’s biggest oil producer sooner than expected.” Based on preliminary estimates from the Energy Information Administration, the U.S. probably surpassed Russia this summer “after jumping over Saudi Arabia earlier this year. If those estimates are right, it would mark the first time since 1973 that the U.S. has led the world in output.”

 

Equities (September 13)

2018/ 09/ 14 by jd in Global News

In the U.S., many dismiss inflation because it’s “only about 3%,” a big mistake. In real life, it’s actually “closer to 10%” as revealed by the Chapwood Index, a real-time inflation monitor. “Most cities are seeing inflation at or above 10% per year!” This “stealth inflation” is overlooked “because nobody really sees it unless they are paying attention… Packages of pretzels and chips and snacks contain less than they used to, yet their prices are rising…. Those 16-oz packages may be only 13-oz. now.”

 

LA Times (September 11)

2018/ 09/ 13 by jd in Global News

“America’s malls are dying. Owners are hoping virtual reality and fitness centers will save them.” As merchants increasingly withdraw in the face of e-tailers, Credit Suisse “recently predicted 20% to 25% of U.S. malls will shut down within five years…. To survive, malls need to set aside long-established models that rely on two or more anchor tenants to draw customers and, instead, develop a mixture of retail, entertainment and housing.”

 

Newsweek (September 4)

2018/ 09/ 06 by jd in Global News

“September 15 will mark the tenth anniversary of the collapse of Lehman Brothers and near meltdown of Wall Street, followed by the Great Recession.” With household debt at “an all-time high of $13.2 trillion,” we’re now close to a repeat. The direct cause will be income imbalance, not a banking crisis. “The U.S. economy crashes when it becomes too top heavy because the economy depends on consumer spending to keep it going…. For a time, the middle class and poor can keep the economy going nonetheless by borrowing. But, as in 1929 and 2008, debt bubbles eventually burst. We’re getting dangerously close.”

 

Financial Times (August 25)

2018/ 08/ 28 by jd in Global News

“The US stock market this week reached twin landmarks: an all-time high, and the longest bull run in history. Yet it is shrinking…. The tally of listed domestic companies in the US has almost halved from 8,090 in 1996 to 4,336 last year.”

 

The Economist (August 25)

2018/ 08/ 27 by jd in Global News

“America’s bull market in equities turned 3,453 days old” on August 22. “Since hitting a low of 666 in March 2009, the S&P 500 index has increased more than fourfold, driven by strong corporate profits, low inflation, stable economic growth and a boatload of central-bank stimulus. Despite five corrections of at least 10%, the index has never entered bear territory, defined as a drop of at least 20%. Most commentators are declaring this to be the longest bull market in history.”

 

Wall Street Journal (August 23)

2018/ 08/ 25 by jd in Global News

“The Fed has been able to slowly and predictably raise interest rates this year because the economy has performed largely in line with its expectations, but Wednesday’s minutes show how trade uncertainties loom large for U.S. businesses and Fed officials.”

 

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