New York Times (May 24)
Americans may be blind to “the war-driven supply shock already roiling manufacturing in Asia” which is especially “disrupting manufacturing and retail goods in Japan and South Korea” due to disrupted naphtha supply. “Because it serves as the building block for so many chemical products, naphtha is often called the ‘flour’ or ‘rice’ of industry.” So when the Iran War essentially “choked off” Persian Gulf shipping lanes, “more than 80 percent of Japan’s traditional supply lines for finished naphtha products” were “abruptly severed.” By some accounts, Japan and South Korea are consequently “the countries most exposed to the current supply disruptions.”
Tags: Asia, Blind, Exposed, Iran war, Japan, Manufacturing, Naphtha, Persian Gulf, Retail goods, Roiling, Shipping lanes, Shock, South Korea, U.S.
The Economist (May 18)
“Since Donald Trump took office in January last year, America’s economy has continued to be the envy of the rich world. In 2025, while Britain, France and Japan eked out annual GDP growth of 1%, give or take, and Germany all but stood still, American output grew by 2.1%.” That growth could have been far more impressive. The Economist calculates that without the drag created by “fitful presidential policymaking,” the U.S. “might be rocketing ahead at nearly 5% annualised growth.”
Tags: 2025, 5%, Drag, Economy, Envy, Fitful, France, GDP growth, Germany, Japan, Policymaking, Rich world, Trump, U.S., UK
Barron’s (April 5)
The global economy is in for a “crude awakening.” Even under the best (or least worst) scenario, the Iran “war will shave about a percentage point off global economic growth, taking it down to 2% this year. Growth forecasts for large, developed economies—Japan, France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom—were modest before the war at around 1%. If the conflict extends past June, GDP growth for these countries could evaporate, while inflation keeps rising.”
Tags: 2%, Conflict, Crude awakening, Developed economies, Economic growth, Forecasts, France, GDP, Germany, Global economy, Inflation, Iran war, Italy, Japan, Scenario, UK
Fortune (March 23)
“The great toilet paper panic is back as Japan starts stockpiling. As the U.S.-Israeli-Iran conflict rattles oil markets, Japanese consumers are stockpiling toilet paper—a product with no connection to the disruptions whatsoever, but that has caused enough problems for the country that the Japanese government has urged citizens to stop buying ahead of time.”
Tags: Citizens, Conflict, Consumers, Disruptions, Government, Iran, Israeli, Japan, Oil markets, Panic, Problems, Rattles, Stockpiling, Toilet paper, U.S.
Reuters (February 9)
“Sanae Takaichi has curb-stomped the competition. Her Liberal Democratic Party took 316 out of 465 seats…delivering the arch-conservative prime minister her country’s first post-war single-party supermajority.” While “investors may hope the ruling party’s historic comeback relieves pressure to cooperate with a fiscally profligate opposition,” that is unlikely. Her desire to revive “the heavily indebted $4 trillion economy” and return to fiscal stimulus will prove costly. Her “desire for a regular army makes expensive militarisation look more certain.” All of these “stated ambitions” augur “more turmoil for markets.”
Tags: Army, Conservative, Curb-stomped, Economy, Expensive, Fiscal stimulus, Hope, Indebted, Investors, Japan, LDP, Militarisation, Prime minister, Supermajority, Takaichi, Turmoil
Reuters (January 28)
“Japan’s car market is ripe for consolidation. Years of falling sales both at home and abroad had already been putting financial pressure on several of the country’s seven major automakers.” The Nissan/Honda merger fell through, “but a Suzuki Motor takeover of Mazda Motor would be a smart move.”
Tags: Abroad, Automakers, Car market, Consolidation, Falling sales, Financial pressure, Honda, Japan, Mazda, Merger Suzuki, Nissan, Smart
Barron’s (January 27)
“Japan is the market’s ‘Big Story.’” Proposals for a “looser fiscal policy” have resulted in “big moves in the yen and Japanese government bonds that have investors increasingly on edge around the world.” Now all eyes are on the 40-year JGB auction, which really “matters for U.S. and European investors. If prices fall, sending yields higher it, it could make Japanese bonds attractive enough for local investors to move money invested abroad back to Japan.”
Tags: 40 year, Abroad, Europe, Investors, Japan, JGBs, Looser fiscal policy, Market, Money, Prices, U.S., Yen, Yields
MarketWatch (January 26)
“The U.S. dollar took another hit on Monday, weakening to its lowest levels in four months, as talk of a coordinated intervention to prop up the competing Japanese yen intensified. A stronger Japanese currency could end up translating into trouble for U.S. stocks, as it did on Aug. 5, 2024, when a sharp unwinding of the yen carry trade was blamed for a selloff in global equities.”
Tags: Blamed, Carry trade, Coordinated intervention, Currency, Dollar, Japan, Prop up, Selloff, Stocks, U.S., Unwinding, Weakening, Yen
New York Times (December 13)
“By itself the United States cannot keep up with China’s soaring industrial capacity, which translates directly into military might. China has close to a 28 percent share of global manufacturing, while the United States has around 17 percent.” China “is acquiring advanced weapons systems and equipment five to six times faster than America…. The United States now risks finding itself in the position of Britain in the late 19th century and Germany and Japan in the 20th: overtaken militarily by a rising industrial powerhouse.”
Tags: Advanced weapons systems, Britain, China, Germany, Global manufacturing, Industrial capacity, Industrial powerhouse, Japan, Military might, Overtaken, U.S.
The Week (December 10)
“Fresh off her first solo state visit to Laos, Princess Aiko has become the face of a Japanese royal family facing 21st-century obsolescence.” Under current succession law, however, her male cousin Prince Hisahito of Akishino will succeed to the throne. The question is when Japan will be “ready for change.” As demonstrated by Japan’s election of “conservative Sanae Takaichi as its first woman prime minister in October,” public support exists “for the notion that Aiko, or ‘any other woman in the future,’ could be made royal successor, which has led to a grassroots effort to readdress the rules.”
Tags: 21st century, Aiko, Change, Grassroots, Hisahito, Japan, Laos, Obsolescence, Prime minister, Public support, Royal family, Succession, Takaichi, Throne
