Barron’s (April 5)
The global economy is in for a “crude awakening.” Even under the best (or least worst) scenario, the Iran “war will shave about a percentage point off global economic growth, taking it down to 2% this year. Growth forecasts for large, developed economies—Japan, France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom—were modest before the war at around 1%. If the conflict extends past June, GDP growth for these countries could evaporate, while inflation keeps rising.”
Tags: 2%, Conflict, Crude awakening, Developed economies, Economic growth, Forecasts, France, GDP, Germany, Global economy, Inflation, Iran war, Italy, Japan, Scenario, UK
Fortune (March 23)
“The great toilet paper panic is back as Japan starts stockpiling. As the U.S.-Israeli-Iran conflict rattles oil markets, Japanese consumers are stockpiling toilet paper—a product with no connection to the disruptions whatsoever, but that has caused enough problems for the country that the Japanese government has urged citizens to stop buying ahead of time.”
Tags: Citizens, Conflict, Consumers, Disruptions, Government, Iran, Israeli, Japan, Oil markets, Panic, Problems, Rattles, Stockpiling, Toilet paper, U.S.
Reuters (February 9)
“Sanae Takaichi has curb-stomped the competition. Her Liberal Democratic Party took 316 out of 465 seats…delivering the arch-conservative prime minister her country’s first post-war single-party supermajority.” While “investors may hope the ruling party’s historic comeback relieves pressure to cooperate with a fiscally profligate opposition,” that is unlikely. Her desire to revive “the heavily indebted $4 trillion economy” and return to fiscal stimulus will prove costly. Her “desire for a regular army makes expensive militarisation look more certain.” All of these “stated ambitions” augur “more turmoil for markets.”
Tags: Army, Conservative, Curb-stomped, Economy, Expensive, Fiscal stimulus, Hope, Indebted, Investors, Japan, LDP, Militarisation, Prime minister, Supermajority, Takaichi, Turmoil
Reuters (January 28)
“Japan’s car market is ripe for consolidation. Years of falling sales both at home and abroad had already been putting financial pressure on several of the country’s seven major automakers.” The Nissan/Honda merger fell through, “but a Suzuki Motor takeover of Mazda Motor would be a smart move.”
Tags: Abroad, Automakers, Car market, Consolidation, Falling sales, Financial pressure, Honda, Japan, Mazda, Merger Suzuki, Nissan, Smart
Barron’s (January 27)
“Japan is the market’s ‘Big Story.’” Proposals for a “looser fiscal policy” have resulted in “big moves in the yen and Japanese government bonds that have investors increasingly on edge around the world.” Now all eyes are on the 40-year JGB auction, which really “matters for U.S. and European investors. If prices fall, sending yields higher it, it could make Japanese bonds attractive enough for local investors to move money invested abroad back to Japan.”
Tags: 40 year, Abroad, Europe, Investors, Japan, JGBs, Looser fiscal policy, Market, Money, Prices, U.S., Yen, Yields
MarketWatch (January 26)
“The U.S. dollar took another hit on Monday, weakening to its lowest levels in four months, as talk of a coordinated intervention to prop up the competing Japanese yen intensified. A stronger Japanese currency could end up translating into trouble for U.S. stocks, as it did on Aug. 5, 2024, when a sharp unwinding of the yen carry trade was blamed for a selloff in global equities.”
Tags: Blamed, Carry trade, Coordinated intervention, Currency, Dollar, Japan, Prop up, Selloff, Stocks, U.S., Unwinding, Weakening, Yen
New York Times (December 13)
“By itself the United States cannot keep up with China’s soaring industrial capacity, which translates directly into military might. China has close to a 28 percent share of global manufacturing, while the United States has around 17 percent.” China “is acquiring advanced weapons systems and equipment five to six times faster than America…. The United States now risks finding itself in the position of Britain in the late 19th century and Germany and Japan in the 20th: overtaken militarily by a rising industrial powerhouse.”
Tags: Advanced weapons systems, Britain, China, Germany, Global manufacturing, Industrial capacity, Industrial powerhouse, Japan, Military might, Overtaken, U.S.
The Week (December 10)
“Fresh off her first solo state visit to Laos, Princess Aiko has become the face of a Japanese royal family facing 21st-century obsolescence.” Under current succession law, however, her male cousin Prince Hisahito of Akishino will succeed to the throne. The question is when Japan will be “ready for change.” As demonstrated by Japan’s election of “conservative Sanae Takaichi as its first woman prime minister in October,” public support exists “for the notion that Aiko, or ‘any other woman in the future,’ could be made royal successor, which has led to a grassroots effort to readdress the rules.”
Tags: 21st century, Aiko, Change, Grassroots, Hisahito, Japan, Laos, Obsolescence, Prime minister, Public support, Royal family, Succession, Takaichi, Throne
Bloomberg (December 8)
“Foreign investors are storming into Japan’s once-placid government bond market, exposing the world’s second-largest pool of sovereign debt to bouts of volatility sparked by traders thousands of miles away.” Overseas investors are “on course to scoop up more Japanese government bonds this year than in any period since records began in 2005” and currently “account for roughly 65% of monthly cash JGB transactions, up from 12% in 2009.” Welcomed by some, this “increased foreign involvement also raises the risk of a rapid or unruly retreat.”
Tags: 2005, 65%, Bond market, Foreign investors, Japan, JGB transactions, Overseas, Retreat, Risk, Sovereign debt, Traders, Volatility
South China Morning Post (November 26)
“No winter lasts forever, but the deep chill in the Beijing-Tokyo relationship set off by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s remarks on Taiwan could last a long time.” There is speculation “that Japan’s new prime minister could tighten her hold on power should relations between Beijing and Tokyo remain frosty, but there is one big wild card: “US President Donald Trump’s reluctance to show open support for Japan, America’s closest ally in the region.”
Tags: Ally, Beijing, Deep chill, Frosty, Japan, Power, Relationship, Reluctance, Speculation, Support, Taiwan, Takaichi, Tokyo, Trump, U.S.
