Washington Post (March 8)
The war in Iran “is hitting the economies of Europe and Asia harder and faster than it is striking the United States.” The conflict’s impact extends far beyond oil and natural gas prices. For example, “the closure of several international airports in the conflict zone, including the world’s busiest in Dubai, idled nearly one-fifth of global airfreight capacity, interrupting shipments of consumer electronics, pharmaceuticals and precious metals.” At present, “the cost of shipping goods by air from Asia to Europe is up 45 percent since the war began,” double the increase “for sending items from Asia to the United States.”
Tags: Airfreight, Airports, Asia, Conflict, Dubai, Economies, Electronics, Europe, Impact, Interrupting, Iran, Natural gas, Oil, Pharmaceuticals, Shipments, U.S., War
Barron’s (March 2)
“The conflict in Iran has upended the global market for oil and natural gas. It is also having a big impact on coal markets,” which rose to a 52-week high on Monday. “Coal is benefiting precisely because it isn’t directly affected in this conflict—unlike the other resources it competes against.” For example, utilities can switch to coal in electricity generation “when natural-gas prices get too expensive or natural gas supplies are threatened.”
Tags: 52-week high, Coal markets, Conflict, Electricity, Global market, Impact, Iran, Natural gas, Oil, Resources, Supplies, Upended, Utilities
Politico (October 19)
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde believes the global economy is “in transformation,” brought about especially by two factors. “One is the tariffs, which have changed the map of trade around the world and reconstituted new alliances and reformed the way in which we trade with each other…. The second major transformation is the impact of artificial intelligence on everything we do from data management to dating and everything in between.”
Tags: Alliances, Artificial intelligence, Data management, ECB, Global economy, Impact, Lagarde, Tariffs, Trade, Transformation
Wall Street Journal (August 18)
“The global economy appears to have taken a sharp rise in U.S. tariffs and increased uncertainty about the future of the international trading system in its stride, but faces stronger headwinds as tax rates continue to climb.” Many countries chose not to retaliate. “Forgoing retaliation may count as a series of losses for them and a sequence of wins for the U.S. But those choices are also wins for the global economy, and for now a return to the tit-for-tat mayhem of the 1930s seems unlikely.” The tariffs have nevertheless been detrimental, “but it will take some time before the impact of tariff increases that are already settled is clear, and it is likely that further increases in duties will add to the damage.”
Tags: 1930s, Climb, Damage, Duties, Global economy, Headwinds, Impact, International trading system, Mayhem, Retaliate, Tariffs, Tax rates, Tit-for-tat, U.S., Uncertainty
Financial Times (July 28)
“The world was in striking agreement on one point: if Donald Trump went ahead with tariffs, it would strengthen the dollar and trigger stagflation.” It hasn’t, even though the “effective US tariff rate has already risen from 2.5 per cent to 15 per cent.” This outcome is unlikely to upturn conventional tariff wisdom. The U.S. is not “really enjoying a free lunch, taking in $300bn a year in tariff revenues with none of the expected heartburn.” It is much more probable that other factors, like AI’s explosive growth, have hidden the impact. The most likely culprit is “the timeworn mistake of employing simple models…. Complex economies are rarely shaped by just one factor, not even a shock as big as Trump’s tariffs.”
Tags: 15%, Agreement, AI, Complex economies, Conventional wisdom, Dollar, Free lunch, Hidden, Impact, Simple models, Stagflation, Tariffs, Trump, U.S.
Wall Street Journal (July 21)
“While no recession has been yet forecast, economic growth is expected to slow substantially in 2025” based on a larger than expected decline in leading economic indicators. “The U.S. economy is set to slow… with the impact of tariffs becoming more pronounced in the second half of the year through higher prices.”
Tags: 2025, Decline, Economic growth, Forecast, Higher prices, Impact, Leading economic indicators, Recession, Second half, Slow, Tariffs, U.S.
USA Today (June 22)
“The U.S. attack on Iranian nuclear sites over the weekend could ratchet up the pressure on an American economy that’s turned increasingly fragile as a weekslong global trade war takes a toll.” The new foray “is most likely to impact oil prices, investors said, which could ripple through the economy by causing higher transportation and gas prices, just as overall inflation throughout the economy has seemed to be contained.”
Tags: Attack, Economy, Foray, Fragile, Gas prices, Impact, Inflation, Investors, Iran, Nuclear sites, Oil prices, Ripple, Trade war, Transportation, U.S.
Wall Street Journal (April 14)
“The biggest issue in financial markets these days, other than tariffs, is the fate of U.S. dollar assets. Are President Trump’s herky-jerky decision-making and border taxes causing the world’s investors to shy away from the dollar and U.S. Treasurys?” Amid the volatility, that remains to be seen, but any shift would occur “’at the margin’ because the U.S. remains too big a market, and its financial system too liquid, to ignore.” Still, the potential impact should not be dismissed lightly. “Even a modest shift from Treasury bonds” could have enormous repercussions.
Tags: Bonds, Decision-making, Dollar assets, https://www.wsj.com/opinion/is-there-a-new-trump-risk-premium-tariffs-trade-policy-bonds-us-dollar-investing-9bee401d?mod=hp_opin_pos_4#cxrecs_s Financial markets, Impact, Investors, Jerky, Liquid, Margin, Shift, Tariffs, Taxes, Treasurys, Trump, U.S., Volatility
Barron’s (April 4)
“The tariff damage can’t be undone.” Many uncertainties still remain regarding the extent of their ultimate impact, how much the world will reorient to exclude the U.S., and the benefit the tariffs will provide China. However, “the scope, speed and magnitude of the Trump administration’s tariff blitz” made one point “crystal clear: The post–World War II global world economic order is no longer.”
Tags: Damage, Economic order, Exclude, Extent, Global, Impact, Magnitude, Post–World War II, Reorient, Scope, Speed, Tariff, Trump, U.S., Uncertainties, Undone
Fortune (March 22)
“Investor Danny Moses, best known for his oracular bet against mortgage-backed debt before the 2008 stock market crash, is warning of another economic red flag.” Moses believes “the market has not yet accounted for the negative economic impact of the mass cuts to government jobs carried out by the Elon Musk-championed Department of Government Efficiency.” While “disruptions in consumer confidence” are already apparent, they “have yet to be priced into the market.” He expects an “unvirtuous cycle” to result “as more fired federal workers look for private sector jobs” and “find fewer opportunities because of shrinking revenue streams in government contracts.”
Tags: 2008, Debt, Disruptions, DOGE, Economic, Government jobs, Impact, Investor, Mass cuts, Mortgage-backed, Moses, Musk, Negative, Private-sector, Red flag, Stock market crash, Unvirtuous cycle, Warning
