New York Times (April 29)
“Trump appears to be miscalculating yet again, believing that his blockade and economic pressure on Iran will succeed where his bombings failed…. Two months into the war, Iran and the United States each seems to feel it is in the stronger position. Faced with the prospect of making concessions to the other side, each may prefer to delay or escalate, with the world economy held hostage.”
Tags: Blockade, Bombings, Concessions, Delay, Economic pressure, Escalate, Failed, Iran, Miscalculating, Stronger, Succeed, Trump, U.S., War, World economy
Fortune (April 27)
“The Iran conflict has confirmed a transformation in the economics of warfare toward cheap, mass-produced weapons, forcing a wholesale rethinking of military procurement.” Iran’s strategy “is the opposite of the West’s model of precision lethality.” It deliberately embraces mass losses because “even the most advanced defenses can be overwhelmed with sufficient volume” and “cost asymmetry” places tremendous burden on the enemy. In this case, “cost asymmetry is worsened by severe production and supply-chain constraints.” The U.S. has burned through 50% of its THAAD interceptors, with the next delivery of THAAD interceptors not expected until April 2027.
Tags: Cheap, Conflict, Cost asymmetry, Economics, Iran, Mass losses, Mass-produced, Military procurement, Precision lethality, Production, Rethinking, Supply-chain constraints, THAAD interceptors, Transformation, U.S., Volume, Warfare, Weapons
The Times (April 26)
“Few would envy the King his task when he begins his state visit to the United States on Monday.” Given the circumstances, his Mother would likely have cancelled the trip. We should “praise him for taking on a challenge that many would prefer to duck.” Hopefully, the visit will prove “an opportunity to prevent a temporary rupture in the special relationship from becoming permanent estrangement” and that “King Charles can be a bridge over troubled water for US and UK.”
Tags: Bridge, Cancelled, Challenge, Estrangement, King Charles, Opportunity, Permanent, Prevent, Rupture, Special relationship, State visit, Task, U.S., Visit
The Economist (April 25 Issue)
“Xi Jinping wants a powerful currency. America’s war has helped.” Usage of the yuan is expanding, but the currency remains far from the status of a global reserve currency. “Last month China’s currency accounted for over 8% of global trade finance, according to SWIFT, second (but a distant second) to the dollar, on over 80%.” Nevertheless, the yuan is becoming “a source of comfort for countries and firms disconcerted by America’s haphazard stewardship of the truly powerful dollar.”
Tags: 80, China, Comfort, Countries, Disconcerted, Finance, Firms, Global reserve, Global trade, Haphazard, Powerful currency, Stewardship, Swift, U.S., Xi, Yuan
Bloomberg (April 25)
“The Strait of Hormuz oil shock has yet to crash demand as the rich world borrows from its stocks and pays up to secure supply. Traders are now sounding the alarm that a harsh adjustment is coming.” The IEA believes “global oil demand is on track to slump the most in five years this month.” Things will surely get worse. “A billion barrels of supply loss is already all-but guaranteed — more than double the emergency inventories that governments released” since the conflict began. “With a stalemate between US President Donald Trump and his Iranian adversaries dragging on, the impact is increasingly shifting west — and to products that are central to consumers’ everyday lives.”
Tags: Adversaries, Alarm, Billion barrels, Conflict, Crash, Demand, Emergency inventories, Harsh, IEA, Impact, Iran, Oil shock, Rich world, Slump, Stalemate, Strait of Hormuz, Supply, Traders, Trump
Wall Street Journal (April 23)
“The conflict with Iran has entered a damaging new phase—a crippling limbo between war and peace that leaves the Strait of Hormuz closed and the prospect of escalation looming.” The explosions have stopped, “but the battle for control of the strait, one of the most important conduits of global commerce, is raging, leaving commodity traders on edge and helping push international oil prices above $100 a barrel on Wednesday.”
Tags: Battle, Commodity traders, Conflict, Crippling, Damaging, Escalation, Global commerce, Iran, Limbo, Looming, Oil prices, Peace, Raging, Strait of Hormuz, War
Business Insider (April 22)
“First, the Iran war made flights more expensive. Now, it’s making them disappear.” Aviation analytics firm Cirium found that “19 of the world’s 20 largest airlines have cut flights in May.” Jet fuel prices have skyrocketed, “doubling in price to almost $200 a barrel. And as the war drags on, jet fuel is getting harder to come by.” Cirium had predicted annual flight capacity growth of 4%-6%, but now envisions a decline of up to 3%.
Tags: $200, Airlines, Analytics, Aviation, Capacity growth, Cirium, Doubling, Expensive, Flights, Iran war, Jet fuel, Prices, Skyrocketed
The Economist (April 21)
“Three factors are pushing the world towards the cliff edge. Oil cargoes available to buy are drying up. Refineries are slashing output of fuel. And demand remains artificially high, especially in Europe. Something big must give somewhere large for energy markets to balance.”
Tags: Artificially high, Cargoes, Cliff edge, Demand, Drying up, Energy markets, Europe, Factors, Fuel, Oil, Refineries, Slashing output, World
South China Morning Post (April 20)
A “Hormuz moment” might signal the “decline of US dominance.” Citic Securities analysts are comparing the unfolding situation in Iran to the “Suez moment,” when Great Britain “lost control of the Suez Canal along with its global superpower status.” On Saturday, the analysts wrote “that a similarly consequential ‘Hormuz moment’ could be a watershed for America’s global supremacy.” In fact, Citic posits “the global order may have already undergone subtle but significant changes.”
Tags: Analysts, Citic Securities, Consequential, Control, Decline, Dominance, Hormuz moment, Iran, Suez Canal, Superpower status, Supremacy, U.S., UK, Unfolding, Watershed
Barron’s (April 20)
“Stock investors might be fretting over the final stages of peace talks between Washington and Tehran but they aren’t prepared to relinquish the hard-won gains of the past three weeks nor the record highs reached in U.S. equity markets over the past few days…. The on-again, off-again nature of peace talks slated for this week in Pakistan were testing investors again Monday, but the broader market reaction suggests investors remain optimistic on a near-term conclusion to the conflict.”
Tags: Conclusion, Conflict, Equity markets, Final stages, Fretting, Hard-won gains, Market reaction, Near term, Optimistic, Pakistan, Peace talks, Record highs, Relinquish, Stocks, Tehran, U.S., Washington
