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Forbes (October 28)

2019/ 10/ 30 by jd in Global News

“Amid a global slowdown in economic growth that has seen central banks lower interest rates near zero or below in an effort to provide stimulus,” a number of “major economies are on high recession alert.” These include Hong Kong, the U.K., Germany, Italy and China. “Other highly stressed economies around the world include Turkey, Argentina, Iran, Mexico and Brazil.”

 

Chicago Tribune (October 4)

2019/ 10/ 06 by jd in Global News

“The jobs figures carry more weight than usual because worries about the health of the U.S. economy are mounting. Manufacturers have essentially fallen into recession as U.S. businesses have cut spending on industrial machinery, computers and other factory goods. And overseas demand for U.S. exports has fallen sharply as President Donald Trump’s trade conflicts with China and Europe have triggered retaliatory tariffs.”

 

Financial Times (September 13)

2019/ 09/ 15 by jd in Global News

Mario Draghi and the ECB have done their part, but “Germany will wait until it is too late before providing a measurable fiscal stimulus.” This is the optimal “time for Europe to invest in its future,” with low inflation, zero cost of borrowing and fiscal surpluses. “German leaders know this,” but fear alarming “the good burghers of Munich, Hamburg and Frankfurt. Were recession to provoke a full-blown euro-zone crisis, Berlin would of course act…. But do not expect Germany to dispatch the fire brigade before the flames have fully taken hold. What a waste.”

 

Reuters (September 5)

2019/ 09/ 06 by jd in Global News

“The most likely outcome is now that GDP growth will come in below 2.5%, perhaps significantly lower, the worst since the recession of 2008/09. By implication, oil consumption growth is likely to slip below 1% and 1 million bpd, in line with BP’s latest forecast,” but well short of the last two decade’s 1.5% average annual growth rate. “Until the global economy recovers momentum, oil consumption growth is likely to remain well below trend, keeping prices under pressure.”

 

Financial Times (September 4)

2019/ 09/ 05 by jd in Global News

“The US manufacturing sector has contracted for the first time in three years as the US-China trade war weighted on the industrial economy and added to fears over slowing domestic growth.” While one quarters manufacturing results do not necessarily lead to a US recession, “the details of yesterday’s ISM report were ugly, with new orders, production and employment sub-indices all contracting.”

 

Wall Street Journal (August 31)

2019/ 09/ 02 by jd in Global News

Another recession “could be devastating for people who have only just recovered.” The record long U.S. expansion “has showered” the top 1% of households with “staggering new wealth,” but bypassed others. “The bottom half of all U.S. households, as measured by wealth, have only recently regained the wealth lost in the 2007-2009 recession and still have 32% less wealth, adjusted for inflation, than in 2003…. If another recession comes, it could be devastating.”

 

Washington Post (August 26)

2019/ 08/ 28 by jd in Global News

President Trump has recently “vacillated back and forth between praising China and harshly criticizing it, all while claiming that the trade war he initiated is going great for the United States as evidence mounts that it is pushing us toward recession.” He seems to labor “under a series of misconceptions, bred by ignorance and what appears to be a complete lack of interest in grasping how the trade war appears from China’s perspective.” It is becoming painfully obvious that “Trump is in fact the world’s worst negotiator. And the price Americans are paying for his weakness keeps getting higher.”

 

The Guardian (July 9)

2019/ 07/ 11 by jd in Global News

“The pound has come under fresh selling pressure amid rising fears over the strength of the British economy as no-deal Brexit looms,” tumbling to its lowest sustained level in over two years. “The latest sell-off comes at a time of a stalling UK economy, as the boost from stockpiling before the original Brexit deadline begins to fade” and fears grow that “the economy probably contracted in the three months to June, raising fears of a technical recession.”

 

Wall Street Journal (April 7)

2019/ 04/ 08 by jd in Global News

“Friday’s solid labor report out to ease fears that the U.S. Economy is skidding toward recession…While growth has cooled, neither recession nor runaway inflation appear imminent.”

 

Reuters (March 25)

2019/ 03/ 26 by jd in Global News

“Downbeat data from the US and Europe, combined with a cautious tone from the Federal Reserve, frightened investors last week. The first inversion in the US bond yield curve since 2007 also heightened concerns, by raising fears of a recession in the world’s largest economy.”

 

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