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Reuters (February 15)

2024/ 02/ 16 by jd in Global News

“Japan’s journey back to normality has just taken an unwelcome turn. The world’s third-largest economy in U.S. dollar terms ceded the title to Germany on Thursday” as Japan simultaneously slipped into a recession. “More unnerving is a slew of weak data making it harder for the Bank of Japan to justify hiking rates and officially ending its era of ultra-easy monetary policy.”

 

Institutional Investor (February 1)

2024/ 02/ 01 by jd in Global News

“The Federal Reserve has signaled that it expects to cut rates sometime this year,” though the first cut now looks likely to be delayed until at least May. “Still, most economists think that absent an inflation resurgence, the Fed is going to lower rates this year. Based on past rate cuts that have occurred before entering a recession, the two most likely outcomes are: “no recession and a strong bull market… or a recession and a bust for the Fed.”

 

Washington Post (January 25)

2024/ 01/ 26 by jd in Global News

“The nation’s economy was supposed to have sunk into recession by now, dragged down by the highest interest rates in two decades and a resulting slump in borrowing and spending. Instead, the U.S. economy has kept chugging along. Even more encouraging, inflation, which touched a four-decade high in 2022, has edged steadily lower without the painful layoffs that most economists had thought would be necessary to slow the acceleration of prices.”

 

Washington Post (January 19)

2024/ 01/ 21 by jd in Global News

“The S&P 500 hit an all-time closing high Friday.” Up over 1% from Thursday, the index closed at 4,839.81, “surpassing the previous closing record set in January of 2022.” Support stems from confidence in an economy that has averted a recession, apparently achieving an elusive soft-landing. Analysts also “point to an AI-driven frenzy on Wall Street that rivals the dot-com boom of the late ’90s, when investors sought to capitalize on the transformative gains brought by the early internet.”

 

USA Today (January 2)

2024/ 01/ 03 by jd in Global News

“The post-COVID-19 economy was finally supposed to stop defying gravity and topple into a recession this year.” While “growth is expected to slow… other factors are likely to keep the economy afloat, forecasters say, including near-record home and stock prices, a further easing of inflation to or near the Fed’s 2% goal and the central bank’s tentative plans to cut interest rates more sharply than previously anticipated.”

 

Wall Street Journal (December 22)

2023/ 12/ 23 by jd in Global News

“The Federal Reserve is winning its fight over inflation, boosting Americans’ spirits and offering greater reassurance that the U.S. economy can avoid a recession while bringing prices under control.” The PCE index favored by the Fed, “fell 0.1% in November from the previous month, the first decline since April 2020…. Prices were up 2.6% on the year, not far from the Fed’s 2% target.”

 

New York Times (November 9)

2023/ 11/ 11 by jd in Global News

The U.S. economy “has accomplished what many, perhaps most, economists considered impossible: a large fall in inflation without a recession or even a big rise in unemployment.” A recent Goldman Sachs report declares “The Hard Part Is Over,” making the case “that we’re managing to combine rapid disinflation with solid growth, and that it expects this happy combination — the opposite of stagflation — to continue.”

 

Bankrate (October 10)

2023/ 10/ 11 by jd in Global News

“Recession odds between now and September 2024 have dropped to 46 percent, according to experts’ average forecast in Bankrate’s latest quarterly survey of economists. Those probabilities are still close to a coin flip, but they’re down from an average forecast of 59 percent just last quarter. They’re also the lowest odds since the first quarter of 2022.”

 

Institutional Investor (September 5)

2023/ 09/ 06 by jd in Global News

“Hard landing? Soft landing? No recession after all? As economic news that’s far rosier than most analysts expected to see this summer keeps coming in, a growing number of pundits are now openly wondering if the ‘severe downturn’ long predicted to strike by late 2023 may turn out to be milder (and later in coming) than even the cheeriest of them had recently envisioned.”

 

Financial Times (September 1)

2023/ 09/ 03 by jd in Global News

“The US labour market cooled in August, raising hopes that the Federal Reserve is successfully orchestrating a soft landing for the world’s largest economy. Investors hailed a possible Goldilocks scenario in which inflation comes under control without causing a recession, as Friday’s figures revealed an uptick in the unemployment rate, subdued jobs growth and wage rises back at pre-Covid rates.”

 

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