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September 2022
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Marketwatch (September 20)

2022/ 09/ 22 by jd in Global News

“The number of millionaires in the world is set to nearly double by 2026, despite rising interest rates, looming recession fears and a recent plunge in net worth for some of the world’s wealthiest people.” All told, the number of millionaires “is expected to jump 40% and reach 87.5 million over the next five years.”


Investment Week (August 23)

2022/ 08/ 24 by jd in Global News

In early August, the Bank of England predicted “increased gas prices would cause inflation to rise above 13% by the end of the year.” The consensus is worse. “Goldman Sachs and EY forecast UK consumer price inflation would reach 15%, and Bank of America projected it would peak at 14% in January.” Citi bank has gone further and “riled markets” by forecasting “UK CPI to hit 18.6% in January… beating the 1979 peak when CPI hit 17.8% following the OPEC oil shock.” A recession looks all but inevitable.


Real Money (August 17)

2022/ 08/ 18 by jd in Global News

“Japan marches to the beat of a different drummer. And its pace, slow and steady, is looking solid as much of the rest of the world contends with the din of roaring inflation and clanging recession.” In contrast, Japan’s “inflation is running at a mild and manageable 2.4% as of July” and Japan looks poised for “steady multiyear growth…. Japanese equities therefore continue to justify themselves as safe havens.”


Reuters (July 29)

2022/ 07/ 31 by jd in Global News

“The prospect of a U.S. recession could mean more pain for battered stocks, despite a recent rebound that has taken the benchmark index to its highest level in more than a month.” If the U.S. is indeed entering recession “history shows the rough ride stock investors have endured this year may get even bumpier.”


Washington Post (July 26)

2022/ 07/ 28 by jd in Global News

“The U.S. economy is caught in an awkward, painful place. A confusing one, too. Growth appears to be sputtering, home sales are tumbling and economists warn of a potential recession ahead. But consumers keep spending, businesses keep posting profits and the economy keeps adding hundreds of thousands of jobs a month.”


CNN (July 26)

2022/ 07/ 27 by jd in Global News

Is the U.S. “heading for a recession” or “already in one”? Since “it already feels like a recession, such fine distinctions may not matter. “Soaring prices… make it tougher to pay for everyday expenses and monthly bills. The stock market has tanked this year. Home sales have started to slip. Consumer confidence is low.” One mid-July poll found that 65% of US voters already “think we’re in a recession.”


Institutional Investor (July 18)

2022/ 07/ 20 by jd in Global News

“Private equity investors have little to fear from a recession, as the best returns come after these periods.” A recent report by Bain Consulting shows, for example, that “following the bursting of the dot-com bubble, buyout funds generated a median IRR of 25 percent in 2001, 40 percent in 2002, and 47 percent in 2003. In 2009, after the Global Financial Crisis, they posted a 24 percent IRR.” In the near future, however, “private equity firms still face a bumpy road ahead, despite the potentially short duration of the market downturn.”


The Economist (May 28)

2022/ 05/ 30 by jd in Global News

Signs suggest “America’s markets are entering a new, more worrying phase.” Falling share prices could initially be attributed to the Federal Reserve’s policy moves, but “in recent weeks share prices have kept falling, even as bond yields have dropped back,” a combination suggesting recession. “Indeed, the mix of Fed tightening, slowing gdp and rising production costs has the ominous feel of the later stages of a business cycle. The expansion is barely two years old. Yet investors are already worried that corporate profits are under threat.”


Financial Times (May 6)

2022/ 05/ 07 by jd in Global News

“The yen may very well experience further depreciation pressure over the coming weeks… we are in a complex and volatile period for global markets.” Beyond that, however, “there are a number of paths to recovery for the yen…. Investors can anticipate a rebound in the yen over time and should consider owning this haven asset as a hedge against global recession and other tail risks.”


Wall Street Journal (April 26)

2022/ 04/ 27 by jd in Global News

“Worries about the war in Ukraine, China’s Covid-19 outbreak, a U.S. or European recession and surging global inflation are making a long-spurned asset increasingly popular with Wall Street’s top money managers these days: cash.” Increasingly asset managers “are looking to move funds into low-risk, cash-like assets. That marks a shift from recent years, when steadily climbing equity indexes trained investors to buy every dip and not miss out on gains by holding cash.”


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