USA Today (August 16)
“President Donald Trump’s aggressive economic policies will likely significantly slow U.S. growth and push up inflation but stop short of causing a recession or “stagflation” – the dire scenarios that forecasters envisioned before he took office.” Economist Justin Begley of Moody’s Analytics believes the U.S. is edging toward stagflation, but will not end up there. Much will depend on the Fed which “faces a dilemma because lowering rates to bolster a softening labor market could further drive up inflation.”
Tags: Begley, Dilemma, Economic policies, Economist, Fed, Growth, Inflation, Labor market, Moody’s Analytics, Rates, Recession, Stagflation, Stagflation. Dire, Trump, U.S.
Wall Street Journal (July 21)
“While no recession has been yet forecast, economic growth is expected to slow substantially in 2025” based on a larger than expected decline in leading economic indicators. “The U.S. economy is set to slow… with the impact of tariffs becoming more pronounced in the second half of the year through higher prices.”
Tags: 2025, Decline, Economic growth, Forecast, Higher prices, Impact, Leading economic indicators, Recession, Second half, Slow, Tariffs, U.S.
Wall Street Journal (June 25)
Steel and aluminum :”are trump’s worst tariffs.” They “will hit consumers, jobs and national security.” On June 3, President Trump announced that U.S. tariff rates on steel and aluminum would double to 50%, effective the next day.“ This move constitutes “the most reckless trade action of the Trump presidency.” The tariffs on these crucial manufacturing materials “will drive up the cost of U.S. manufactured products dramatically.” They may “drag the economy into a recession” and “will increase the probability of retaliation against American exports and an all-out trade war.” On top of that, the tariffs “will harm national security by increasing the cost of two essential components of defense procurement.”
Tags: 50, Aluminum, Consumers, Defense procurement, Economy, Exports, Jobs, Manufacturing, National security, Recession, Reckless, Retaliation, Steel, Tariffs, Trade war, Trump, U.S.
Fortune (June 22)
“Russia’s high-spending war economy, after years of defying predictions of imminent recession, is finally running into the hard limits of labor, productivity, and inflation.”
Tags: Defying, High-spending, Imminent, Inflation, Labor, Limits, Predictions, Productivity, Recession, Russia, War economy
Market Watch (May 17)
“President Donald Trump’s move to defuse an ugly trade war with China not only sparked a massive stock-market rally but also drove down the chances of a recession — for now.” Though it’s a welcome sign of relief, numerous obstacles remain. Nobody can rest assured. “Ongoing trade wars have not gone away, for one thing. Trump could change his mind or the U.S. could fail to strike more economic-friendly deals with China, after that 90-day pause, and other countries.” Moreover, the uncertainty has “made households and business hesitant to spend, hire and invest. Confidence has plunged in the past few months, and anxiety is unlikely to fade quickly.” U.S. growth remains likely “to taper off sharply this year.”
Tags: 90-day pause, China, Confidence, Deals, Defuse, Hire, Households, Invest, Obstacles, Recession, Relief, Spend, Stock-market rally, Trade war, Trump, U.S., Ugly, Uncertainty
Wall Street Journal (May 13)
“Economist Burton Malkiel might have called the stock market ‘a random walk,’ but investors could at least use earnings guidance by companies as road signs. Now they are largely walking blind.” With on-again, off-again tariffs, “nobody knows what the economy will look like in a few months’ time.” Some companies are leaning heavily on assumptions. “Others, such as General Motors, PepsiCo and Procter & Gamble, have lowered targets, while Volkswagen excluded tariffs from its outlook. United Airlines, creatively, offered one scenario for a stable environment and another for a recession.” Other companies have simply thrown in the towel. “Ford, Jeep-owner Stellantis, Delta Air Lines, and UPS took another route, scrapping their 2025 guidance altogether.”
Tags: Assumptions, Blind, Delta Air Lines, Earnings guidance, Economist, Economy, Ford, GM, Investors, Malkiel, Outlook, PepsiCo, Procter & Gamble, Random walk, Recession, Scenario, Stable, Stellantis, Stock market, Targets, Tariffs, United Airlines, Volkswagen
Washington Post (April 15)
A recession “looks much more likely than it did a few months ago, thanks to the cost and chaos of President Donald Trump’s tariff shock.” With its staggering debt-to-GDP ratio, the U.S. “is ill-positioned to weather another economic storm.” Should Trump’s “punishing tariff policy” lead to recession, “the government might not be able to finance economic relief with cheap debt” as the nation “has depleted its emergency reserves.”
Tags: Chaos, Cost, Debt-to-GDP ratio, Depleted, Economic relief, Economic storm, Emergency, Finance, Government, Punishing, Recession, Reserves, Staggering, Tariff shock, Trump, U.S.
Investment Week (April 1)
“Some of the world’s largest investment banks and a major credit ratings agency have upped their expectations of a recession in the US and globally as trade war woes loom large.” U.S. President Donald Trump “is expected to unveil sweeping tariffs on major trading partners on Wednesday.”
Tags: Credit ratings agency, Expectations, Globally, Investment banks, Loom, Major, Recession, Sweeping, Trade war, Trading partners, Trump, U.S., Woes, World
Newsweek (March 29)
“While the Trump administration is optimistic about the country’s growth prospects… economists are voicing gloomy forecasts.” Among them, “Moody’s Chief Economist Mark Zandi on Thursday compared the current levels of uncertainty to those seen during 9/11 and the 2008 financial crash, having previously said that he felt the country was being ‘pushed into a recession’ by Donald Trump’s tariff policies.”
Tags: 2008 financial crash, 9/11, Economists, Gloomy forecasts, Growth prospects, Moody, Optimistic, Recession, Tariff policies, Trump, Uncertainty, Voicing, Zandi
Washington Post (March 14)
President Trump may be hoping to copy Argentinian President Javier Milei’s success at beating inflation and rejuvenating an economy. Trump now seems “willing to risk a recession to see his vision come to pass,” but his approach is more likely to “backfire and harm the economy for years to come. Recessions hurt. They have long-lasting effects.” On top of that, the President is focused on restoring yesteryear’s jobs. He “is fixated on returning to the economy of the 1990s — or even the 1890s. The only thing worse than undergoing a forced recession would be a forced recession that leaves America less competitive.”
Tags: 1990s, Argentina, Backfire, Economy, Inflation, Jobs, Less competitive, Milei, Recession, Risk, Trump, Vision
