Washington Post (July 9)
The Sahm Rule is considered “the best available recession indicator.” From its nadir, the unemployment rate has risen nearly half a percentage point, which is the rule’s threshold signifying a new recession. “This indicator is flashing a warning sign for the United States. It doesn’t indicate a recession will definitely happen soon, but it is an important wake-up call, and the Federal Reserve needs to pay attention.”
Tags: Attention spans, Fed, Indicator, Nadir, Recession, Sahm Rule, U.S., Unemployment rate, Wake-up call, Warning sign
Wall Street Journal (June 8-9)
“The recession, predicted by business executives, economists, and investors, refuses to show up. Steady hiring continues to fuel consumer spending and, in turn, an economic expansion unlike any the U.S. has seen. Employers added 2.75 million jobs over the last 12 months,” with an unemployment rate “at or below 4% for 30 months, something that last occurred during the Vietnam War in the late 1960s and the Korean War in the early 1950s.”
Tags: Consumer spending, Economic expansion, Economists, Employers, Executives, Hiring, Investors, Predicted, Recession, U.S., Unemployment rate
Fortune (May 6)
“Last year’s consensus was that the U.S. economy was headed for a recession, but that didn’t happen. This year’s consensus is that we’ll have a soft landing, in which the economy slows but won’t tip into a recession.” But contrarians like Andrew Hollenhorst, Citi’s chief U.S. economist, believe “a hard landing” is now imminent.
Tags: Citi, Consensus, Contrarians, Economist, Economy, Hard landing, Hollenhorst, Imminent, Recession, Slows, Soft landing, U.S.
The Guardian (March 13)
“The early signals show that the UK is on track to emerge from a minor recession within months, powered by a recovery in consumer spending amid resilient pay growth and receding inflation. But that isn’t to say the economy is racing ahead, or that a renaissance in living standards awaits…. The broader picture is still one of relative stagnation.”
Tags: Consumer spending, Economy, Emerge, Pay growth, Receding inflation, Recession, Recovery, Resilient, Signals, Stagnation, UK
Reuters (February 15)
“Japan’s journey back to normality has just taken an unwelcome turn. The world’s third-largest economy in U.S. dollar terms ceded the title to Germany on Thursday” as Japan simultaneously slipped into a recession. “More unnerving is a slew of weak data making it harder for the Bank of Japan to justify hiking rates and officially ending its era of ultra-easy monetary policy.”
Tags: BOJ, Economy, Germany, Japan, Monetary policy, Normality, Rates, Recession, Third-largest, U.S., Unnerving, Uultra-easy, Weak data
Institutional Investor (February 1)
“The Federal Reserve has signaled that it expects to cut rates sometime this year,” though the first cut now looks likely to be delayed until at least May. “Still, most economists think that absent an inflation resurgence, the Fed is going to lower rates this year. Based on past rate cuts that have occurred before entering a recession, the two most likely outcomes are: “no recession and a strong bull market… or a recession and a bust for the Fed.”
Tags: Bull market, Bust, Delayed, Economists, Fed, inflation resurgence, May, Outcomes, Rate cuts, Recession
Washington Post (January 25)
“The nation’s economy was supposed to have sunk into recession by now, dragged down by the highest interest rates in two decades and a resulting slump in borrowing and spending. Instead, the U.S. economy has kept chugging along. Even more encouraging, inflation, which touched a four-decade high in 2022, has edged steadily lower without the painful layoffs that most economists had thought would be necessary to slow the acceleration of prices.”
Tags: Acceleration, Borrowing, Economists, Economy, Encouraging, Inflation, Interest rates, Layoffs, Painful, Recession, Slump, Spending, U.S.
Washington Post (January 19)
“The S&P 500 hit an all-time closing high Friday.” Up over 1% from Thursday, the index closed at 4,839.81, “surpassing the previous closing record set in January of 2022.” Support stems from confidence in an economy that has averted a recession, apparently achieving an elusive soft-landing. Analysts also “point to an AI-driven frenzy on Wall Street that rivals the dot-com boom of the late ’90s, when investors sought to capitalize on the transformative gains brought by the early internet.”
Tags: AI, Analysts, Boom, Capitalize, Dot-com, Economy, Frenzy, Gains, High, Internet, Investors, Recession, Record Confidence, Rivals, S&P 500, Soft landing, Transformative, Wall Street
USA Today (January 2)
“The post-COVID-19 economy was finally supposed to stop defying gravity and topple into a recession this year.” While “growth is expected to slow… other factors are likely to keep the economy afloat, forecasters say, including near-record home and stock prices, a further easing of inflation to or near the Fed’s 2% goal and the central bank’s tentative plans to cut interest rates more sharply than previously anticipated.”
Tags: Easing, Economy, Fed, Growth, Inflation, Interest, Post-Covid, Rates, Recession, Record, Slow, Stock prices
Wall Street Journal (December 22)
“The Federal Reserve is winning its fight over inflation, boosting Americans’ spirits and offering greater reassurance that the U.S. economy can avoid a recession while bringing prices under control.” The PCE index favored by the Fed, “fell 0.1% in November from the previous month, the first decline since April 2020…. Prices were up 2.6% on the year, not far from the Fed’s 2% target.”
Tags: Boosting, Decline, Economy, Fed, Inflation, November, PCE index, Prices, Reassurance, Recession, Target, U.S.
