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New York Times (January 28)

2025/ 01/ 30 by jd in Global News

“Stock futures are looking up after Monday’s markets blood bath, as investors take stock of what the Chinese start-up DeepSeek really means for the artificial intelligence business.” Many questions remain, but “the emerging consensus is that DeepSeek… has upended the race for A.I. supremacy. Apple and Meta might end up being better positioned than initially thought, while Nvidia might not be in a disastrous position.”

 

IPE Real Assets (December Issue)

2024/ 12/ 28 by jd in Global News

“There is now a virtual universal consensus amongst economists. The US has successfully navigated a soft landing and its growth outlook is the brightest of all the G7 economies. In December, the OECD published a forecast of 2.4% GDP growth for the US in 2025, versus 1.3% for the eurozone and just 0.7% for Germany. Some even suggest it is an underestimate.”

 

New York Times (December 22)

2024/ 12/ 22 by jd in Global News

“An annual ritual is underway at the major Wall Street investment houses: predicting exactly where the S&P 500 will finish the next calendar year.” Since 2000, the Wall Street consensus has failed miserably at this fool’s errand, predicting only gains when there were seven years of losses. Their average “variance between actual annual performance and the prediction was huge — an average gap of 14.2 percentage points.”

 

Fortune (May 6)

2024/ 05/ 07 by jd in Global News

“Last year’s consensus was that the U.S. economy was headed for a recession, but that didn’t happen. This year’s consensus is that we’ll have a soft landing, in which the economy slows but won’t tip into a recession.” But contrarians like Andrew Hollenhorst, Citi’s chief U.S. economist, believe “a hard landing” is now imminent.

 

Washington Post (March 20)

2024/ 03/ 21 by jd in Global News

“The proposed purchase of U.S. Steel by Japan’s Nippon Steel has done something few issues can do in Washington: forge a bipartisan consensus…. Members of both parties are absolutely molten about the prospects of a 123-year-old American manufacturer flying a Japanese flag.” They shouldn’t be. This is electioneering. “As long as the plant and the jobs there are protected, as Nippon Steel has promised, who owns it doesn’t really matter — unless you’re a politician.”

 

Seeking Alpha (December 11)

2023/ 12/ 12 by jd in Global News

“As markets gear up for major central bank meetings this week, starting with the Federal Reserve on Dec.12-13, all eyes will closely watch for any change in the policymakers’ tone to predict when rate cuts will begin and by how much.” The consensus is that the Fed keep “federal funds target range steady,” with “rate cuts starting in May.”

 

Investment Week (June 12)

2023/ 06/ 13 by jd in Global News

“Earlier this month, US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said he does not expect inflation to decline quickly, signalling resistance against the market consensus. We believe it would have to be a severe economic recession for the Fed to begin cutting interest rates before the end of the year, as is currently priced in by the forward markets. Therefore, we believe, interest rates will remain ‘higher for longer’. This is inherently positive for MMFs, where yields and total returns are driven for the most part by central bank rates. A higher-for-longer interest rate trajectory could potentially yield 4.5% to 5% for MMFs in US-dollar terms in the next three, six and 12 months.”

 

Bloomberg (April 1)

2023/ 04/ 02 by jd in Global News

“Rarely has the consensus been more uniformly bearish than it is now. Investors are sitting with the lowest allocation to US stocks in almost two decades.” But this extreme is creating a phenomena not seen “during any bear market in the past four decades.” Since “everyone’s leaning one way, big swings are apt to break out in the other…. Small gains can snowball when the worry is missing out on the next big rally.” As a result, “the S&P 500 just finished the first three months of the year up 7%, rounding out back-to-back quarterly gains.”

 

The Economist (February 2)

2023/ 02/ 04 by jd in Global News

The decisive election of Petr Pavel as the new president of the Czech Republic shows that “all is not lost for the centrist liberal consensus” and also indicates that populism in Europe is, at last, “losing its mojo.” Pavel’s win “marks another blow for the narrative of European politics shifting inexorably to extremes.”

 

Investment Week (August 23)

2022/ 08/ 24 by jd in Global News

In early August, the Bank of England predicted “increased gas prices would cause inflation to rise above 13% by the end of the year.” The consensus is worse. “Goldman Sachs and EY forecast UK consumer price inflation would reach 15%, and Bank of America projected it would peak at 14% in January.” Citi bank has gone further and “riled markets” by forecasting “UK CPI to hit 18.6% in January… beating the 1979 peak when CPI hit 17.8% following the OPEC oil shock.” A recession looks all but inevitable.

 

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