Bloomberg (December 12)
“AI is powering Trump’s economy, but American voters are getting worried.” The Wall Street consensus is “that AI has driven most of the gains on the S&P 500 this year” so that may make AI look like a hero. Among voters, however, there are “signs of an AI backlash, one that could amplify concerns about the cost of living and the job-market outlook in Trump’s economy.” Data center projects are increasingly being “blocked or delayed by local opposition” and roughly $98 billion in investment was “stymied in the second quarter, more than the total for all previous quarters since 2023.”
Tags: AI, Backlash, Blocked, Consensus, Cost of living, Data centers, Delayed, Economy, Gains, Investment, Job market, Opposition, Outlook, S&P 500, Trump, Voters, Wall Street, Worried
OilPrice.com (November 24)
“The international crude benchmark, Brent, could dip to the $30s per barrel handle by 2027 as oversupply could overwhelm the market, according to a JP Morgan forecast.” That is, however, beyond current consensus. “Despite the fears of a glut, analysts and investment banks don’t see oil prices moving down to $40 or below, even as oil is set to decline in the near term with strong supply from OPEC+ and the non-OPEC producers in the Americas.”
Tags: $30, $40, 2027, Analysts, Benchmark, Brent, Consensus, Crude, Fears, Forecast, Glut, Investment banks, JP Morgan, Market, Oil prices
Barron’s (July 31)
“The Federal Reserve’s key inflation gauge,” which excludes food and energy “ran just slightly above expectations in June, raising additional doubts about how quickly the bank will be able to lower interest rates.” Rising 0.3% month on month and 2.8% year on year, the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index surpassed consensus expectations. This week, Fed officials indicated the need before lowering rates for “more evidence that inflation is sustainably moving toward the bank’s 2% target,” but the PCE’s “stronger-than-expected result” appears to show the opposite.
Tags: 2% target, Consensus, Doubts, Energy, Evidence, Expectations, Fed, Food, Inflation, Inflation gauge, Interest rates, June, PCE
New York Times (January 28)
“Stock futures are looking up after Monday’s markets blood bath, as investors take stock of what the Chinese start-up DeepSeek really means for the artificial intelligence business.” Many questions remain, but “the emerging consensus is that DeepSeek… has upended the race for A.I. supremacy. Apple and Meta might end up being better positioned than initially thought, while Nvidia might not be in a disastrous position.”
Tags: AI, Apple, Blood bath, Consensus, DeepSeek, Investors, Markets, Meta, Nvidia, Start-up, Stock futures, Supremacy, Upended
IPE Real Assets (December Issue)
“There is now a virtual universal consensus amongst economists. The US has successfully navigated a soft landing and its growth outlook is the brightest of all the G7 economies. In December, the OECD published a forecast of 2.4% GDP growth for the US in 2025, versus 1.3% for the eurozone and just 0.7% for Germany. Some even suggest it is an underestimate.”
Tags: 2025, Consensus, Economists, eurozone, Forecast, G7 economies, GDP growth, Germany, Growth outlook, Navigated, OECD, Soft landing, U.S., Underestimate
New York Times (December 22)
“An annual ritual is underway at the major Wall Street investment houses: predicting exactly where the S&P 500 will finish the next calendar year.” Since 2000, the Wall Street consensus has failed miserably at this fool’s errand, predicting only gains when there were seven years of losses. Their average “variance between actual annual performance and the prediction was huge — an average gap of 14.2 percentage points.”
Tags: 14.2 percentage points, 2000, Consensus, Fool’s errand, Gains, Investment houses, Losses, Performance, Prediction, Ritual, S&P 500, Variance, Wall Street
Fortune (May 6)
“Last year’s consensus was that the U.S. economy was headed for a recession, but that didn’t happen. This year’s consensus is that we’ll have a soft landing, in which the economy slows but won’t tip into a recession.” But contrarians like Andrew Hollenhorst, Citi’s chief U.S. economist, believe “a hard landing” is now imminent.
Tags: Citi, Consensus, Contrarians, Economist, Economy, Hard landing, Hollenhorst, Imminent, Recession, Slows, Soft landing, U.S.
Washington Post (March 20)
“The proposed purchase of U.S. Steel by Japan’s Nippon Steel has done something few issues can do in Washington: forge a bipartisan consensus…. Members of both parties are absolutely molten about the prospects of a 123-year-old American manufacturer flying a Japanese flag.” They shouldn’t be. This is electioneering. “As long as the plant and the jobs there are protected, as Nippon Steel has promised, who owns it doesn’t really matter — unless you’re a politician.”
Tags: Bipartisan, Consensus, Electioneering, Japan, Jobs, Nippon Steel, Plant, Politician, Protected, Purchase, U.S. Steel, Washington
Seeking Alpha (December 11)
“As markets gear up for major central bank meetings this week, starting with the Federal Reserve on Dec.12-13, all eyes will closely watch for any change in the policymakers’ tone to predict when rate cuts will begin and by how much.” The consensus is that the Fed keep “federal funds target range steady,” with “rate cuts starting in May.”
Tags: Central bank, Consensus, Federal Reserve, Markets, Meetings, Policymakers, Predict, Rate cuts, Steady
Investment Week (June 12)
“Earlier this month, US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said he does not expect inflation to decline quickly, signalling resistance against the market consensus. We believe it would have to be a severe economic recession for the Fed to begin cutting interest rates before the end of the year, as is currently priced in by the forward markets. Therefore, we believe, interest rates will remain ‘higher for longer’. This is inherently positive for MMFs, where yields and total returns are driven for the most part by central bank rates. A higher-for-longer interest rate trajectory could potentially yield 4.5% to 5% for MMFs in US-dollar terms in the next three, six and 12 months.”
Tags: 4.5% to 5%, Consensus, Fed, Forward markets, Higher for longer, Inflation, Interest rates, MMFs, Powell, Recession, Resistance, Total returns, U.S., Yields
