Barron’s (July 31)
“The Federal Reserve’s key inflation gauge,” which excludes food and energy “ran just slightly above expectations in June, raising additional doubts about how quickly the bank will be able to lower interest rates.” Rising 0.3% month on month and 2.8% year on year, the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index surpassed consensus expectations. This week, Fed officials indicated the need before lowering rates for “more evidence that inflation is sustainably moving toward the bank’s 2% target,” but the PCE’s “stronger-than-expected result” appears to show the opposite.
Tags: 2% target, Consensus, Doubts, Energy, Evidence, Expectations, Fed, Food, Inflation, Inflation gauge, Interest rates, June, PCE
Reuters (July 22)
“China’s hardened rhetoric against price wars among producers is raising expectations Beijing may be about to kick off industrial capacity cuts in a long-awaited, but challenging, campaign against deflation that carries risks to economic growth.” Such a campaign would “echo” similar successful “reforms a decade ago to reduce the production of steel, cement, glass and coal, which were crucial to ending a period of 54 consecutive months of falling factory gate prices.” Success may prove elusive this round. “The fight against deflation will be much more complicated and poses risks to employment and growth” while U.S. trade war ”is intensifying price wars, squeezing factory profits.”
Tags: Beijing, Cement, China, Coal, Complicated, Deflation, Economic growth, Employment, Expectations, Glass, Growth, Industrial capacity, Price wars, Producers, Rhetoric, Risks, Steel, Trade war, U.S.
CNN (May 1)
“Another day, another piece of evidence that President Donald Trump’s escalating trade war with friends and foes is hurting the global economy. Today: Japan’s central bank cut its economic growth forecast for the country in half.” The Bank of Japan “lowered its expectations for 2025 gross domestic product growth to an anemic 0.5%, down from the previous projection of +1.1%, made in January.”
Tags: 0.5%, 2025, Anemic, BOJ, Economic growth, Escalating, Evidence, Expectations, Foes, Forecast, Friends, GDP, Global economy, Hurting, Japan, Trade war, Trump
Bloomberg (April 5)
“The plunge in oil prices over the past two days following the twin shocks of President Donald Trump’s tariffs and the surprise boost in production from OPEC+ has altered the global energy landscape with stunning speed.” The market is frantically “tossing aside expectations for 2025” as Brent crude “tumbled 13% through Thursday and Friday to just over $66 a barrel, casting new doubts on Trump’s quest to aggressively boost US fossil fuel output and achieve ‘energy dominance.’”
Tags: $66, 2025, Altered, Brent, Doubts, Energy landscape, Expectations, Fossil fuel, Market, Oil prices, OPEC, Output, Plunge, Production, Stunning, Surprise, Trump’s tariffs, Tumbled, Twin shocks, U.S.
Investment Week (April 1)
“Some of the world’s largest investment banks and a major credit ratings agency have upped their expectations of a recession in the US and globally as trade war woes loom large.” U.S. President Donald Trump “is expected to unveil sweeping tariffs on major trading partners on Wednesday.”
Tags: Credit ratings agency, Expectations, Globally, Investment banks, Loom, Major, Recession, Sweeping, Trade war, Trading partners, Trump, U.S., Woes, World
Reuters (September 28)
“Treasury yields and the dollar fell while the Dow registered a record closing high on Friday as a subdued U.S. inflation report lifted expectations of an outsized interest rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s November policy meeting.” On top of that, “a global stock index also reached a record high, helped by China’s stimulus boost, and European shares posted an all-time high close.”
Tags: China, Dollar, Dow, Europe, Expectations, Fed, Global stock, High, Index, Inflation, Interest rate, Policy meeting, Record, Stimulus, U.S., Yields
Reuters (September 13)
“U.S. consumer sentiment improved in September amid subsiding inflation, though Americans remained cautious ahead of the November presidential election,” according to the University of Michigan. Preliminary readings show “consumer sentiment came in at 69.0 this month, compared to a final reading of 67.9 in August” while expectations for one-year inflation “fell for the fourth straight month to 2.7%,” marking “the lowest reading since December 2020.”
Tags: Cautious, Consumer sentiment, Election, Expectations, Inflation, September, Subsiding, U.S., University of Michigan
Fortune (September 5)
“JPMorgan joins a growing chorus of global firms downgrading their expectations for China’s stock market, following similar moves by former China bulls UBS Global Wealth Management and Nomura Holdings Inc. in the last few weeks. It signals exclusion of China is becoming a popular strategy for investors and analysts amid the country’s dimming prospects and the likelihood of better returns elsewhere.”
Tags: Analysts, China, China bulls, Downgrading, Exclusion, Expectations, Investors, JPMorgan, Nomura, Stock market, Strategy, UBS
Financial Times (August 23)
“Closely watched gauges of long-term inflation expectations in Europe have reached their lowest levels for almost two years, in a sign that investors think central banks can keep lowering interest rates without risking a flare-up in price pressures.” Concerns are also easing in the U.S., with “markets pricing the average long-term inflation rate at 2.4 per cent, down from 2.6 per cent in July.”
Tags: Central banks, Concerns, Easing, Europe, Expectations, Flare up, Inflation, Interest rates, Investors, Price pressures, Risking, U.S.
Washington Post (May 28)
“Nearly everything Americans believe about the economy is wrong.” A recent poll revealed that dire “perceptions of the U.S. economy are often at odds with reality.” In fact, “the U.S. economy has been growing consistently for nearly two years, even after accounting for inflation” and is “exceeding growth expectations” across most benchmarks. “The U.S. economy has been outperforming other advanced economies. We’re also doing better than pre-pandemic forecasts had situated us by now, both in terms of gross domestic product and the number of jobs out there. This generally isn’t true elsewhere in the world.”
Tags: Benchmarks, Economy, Expectations, GDP, Growing, Inflation, Outperforming, Perceptions, Poll, Pre-pandemic, Reality, U.S., Wrong
