Barron’s (September 14)
“AI stocks aren’t alone when it comes to being sensitive to interest rates; equities in general tend to be reactive” and they also averse to the “potential chilling effect on demand” of higher rates. Though expectations are that “the Fed will raise rates when the FOMC announces its monetary policy decision,” the resilience of the economy this year provides “a hopeful thought for anyone dreading a rate hike.”
Tags: AI, Averse, Chilling effect, Demand, Dreading, Economy, Equities, Expectations, Fed, FOMC, Hike, Interest rates, Monetary policy, Reactive, Resilience, Sensitive, Stocks
MarketWatch (August 10)
“The S&P 500’s earnings story is getting stronger and broader, and that’s good news for the stock market — particularly for shares of industrial, financial and technology firms.” With earnings already reported by 80% of S&P 500 constituents, “it is safe to say that this earnings season is on track to be a blowout.” What’s more, “nontech companies are leading tech with a higher margin of earnings outperformance relative to expectations. Nontech companies have topped estimates by about 10%,” while the Magnificent Seven and other tech companies are averaging a 4% beat rate.
Tags: Blowout, Broader, Earnings, Expectations, Financial, Industrial, Nontech, Outperformance, S&P 500, Shares, Stock market, Stronger, Technology
Bloomberg (April 6)
“Chinese bonds may be reaching an historic turning point, with yields climbing from record low levels as deflationary pressures ease and expectations for monetary loosening recede…. Sentiment in the largest emerging debt market has shifted after a slew of upbeat data, from a surprise growth rebound to slower factory-gate price declines, cast fresh doubts on the deflation-driven narrative that has dominated trading in recent years.”
Tags: Bonds, China, Deflationary pressures, Emerging debt market, Expectations, Growth, Historic, Monetary loosening, Rebound, Record low, Sentiment, Turning-point, Upbeat, Yields
Wall Street Journal (April 2)
“There is something not at all right when the weightiest decisions of a democratic republic depend so much on the mood of one man.” Before Trump, “there were forms and traditions and processes, there were strictures, rules, the law, expectations, all of which would hem in the head of the executive branch.” Today, however, the “president’s mood” determines everything. “People have become habituated to this, tolerate it, factor it in. But of course when you factor it in you are enabling and continuing it.”
Tags: Decisions, Democratic republic, Enabling, Executive branch, Expectations, Habituated, Law, Mood, Processes, Rules, Strictures, Tolerate, Traditions, Trump, Weightiest
Barron’s (July 31)
“The Federal Reserve’s key inflation gauge,” which excludes food and energy “ran just slightly above expectations in June, raising additional doubts about how quickly the bank will be able to lower interest rates.” Rising 0.3% month on month and 2.8% year on year, the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index surpassed consensus expectations. This week, Fed officials indicated the need before lowering rates for “more evidence that inflation is sustainably moving toward the bank’s 2% target,” but the PCE’s “stronger-than-expected result” appears to show the opposite.
Tags: 2% target, Consensus, Doubts, Energy, Evidence, Expectations, Fed, Food, Inflation, Inflation gauge, Interest rates, June, PCE
Reuters (July 22)
“China’s hardened rhetoric against price wars among producers is raising expectations Beijing may be about to kick off industrial capacity cuts in a long-awaited, but challenging, campaign against deflation that carries risks to economic growth.” Such a campaign would “echo” similar successful “reforms a decade ago to reduce the production of steel, cement, glass and coal, which were crucial to ending a period of 54 consecutive months of falling factory gate prices.” Success may prove elusive this round. “The fight against deflation will be much more complicated and poses risks to employment and growth” while U.S. trade war ”is intensifying price wars, squeezing factory profits.”
Tags: Beijing, Cement, China, Coal, Complicated, Deflation, Economic growth, Employment, Expectations, Glass, Growth, Industrial capacity, Price wars, Producers, Rhetoric, Risks, Steel, Trade war, U.S.
CNN (May 1)
“Another day, another piece of evidence that President Donald Trump’s escalating trade war with friends and foes is hurting the global economy. Today: Japan’s central bank cut its economic growth forecast for the country in half.” The Bank of Japan “lowered its expectations for 2025 gross domestic product growth to an anemic 0.5%, down from the previous projection of +1.1%, made in January.”
Tags: 0.5%, 2025, Anemic, BOJ, Economic growth, Escalating, Evidence, Expectations, Foes, Forecast, Friends, GDP, Global economy, Hurting, Japan, Trade war, Trump
Bloomberg (April 5)
“The plunge in oil prices over the past two days following the twin shocks of President Donald Trump’s tariffs and the surprise boost in production from OPEC+ has altered the global energy landscape with stunning speed.” The market is frantically “tossing aside expectations for 2025” as Brent crude “tumbled 13% through Thursday and Friday to just over $66 a barrel, casting new doubts on Trump’s quest to aggressively boost US fossil fuel output and achieve ‘energy dominance.’”
Tags: $66, 2025, Altered, Brent, Doubts, Energy landscape, Expectations, Fossil fuel, Market, Oil prices, OPEC, Output, Plunge, Production, Stunning, Surprise, Trump’s tariffs, Tumbled, Twin shocks, U.S.
Investment Week (April 1)
“Some of the world’s largest investment banks and a major credit ratings agency have upped their expectations of a recession in the US and globally as trade war woes loom large.” U.S. President Donald Trump “is expected to unveil sweeping tariffs on major trading partners on Wednesday.”
Tags: Credit ratings agency, Expectations, Globally, Investment banks, Loom, Major, Recession, Sweeping, Trade war, Trading partners, Trump, U.S., Woes, World
Reuters (September 28)
“Treasury yields and the dollar fell while the Dow registered a record closing high on Friday as a subdued U.S. inflation report lifted expectations of an outsized interest rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s November policy meeting.” On top of that, “a global stock index also reached a record high, helped by China’s stimulus boost, and European shares posted an all-time high close.”
Tags: China, Dollar, Dow, Europe, Expectations, Fed, Global stock, High, Index, Inflation, Interest rate, Policy meeting, Record, Stimulus, U.S., Yields
