Market Watch (April 4)
Trump’s tariffs are sparking the “worst week for stocks since 2020” and leading the VIX volatility index to a new high for the year. “U.S. stocks showed signs of ‘capitulation,’ or a move toward ‘panic selling,’ on Friday” as the “tariffs wreaked havoc in the stock market… stoking fears of a trade-war escalation that could lead to a recession.”
Tags: China, Destruction, Economic growth, Empower, Families, Global trading system, Higher inflation, Highest, Rules, Tariffs, Tax increase, Trump, U.S., Unemployment, Wealth
Wall Street Journal (April 3)
“The tariffs Trump announced would lift the average duty above the previous peak of 1930. It is by far the most disruptive component of an agenda that may be one of the most disruptive of any new president since the 1930s, one that includes slashing immigration, government spending, taxes and regulations.” The timing for all this is striking. “The economy he inherited was the envy of the world with growth of 2.8% last year, faster than almost every other major developed economy, an unemployment rate of just 4.1% and inflation of 2.8%. Stocks were at record highs.”
Tags: 1930, Disruptive, Duty, Economy, Government spending, Growth, Immigration, Inflation, Regulations, Stocks, Tariffs, Taxes, Timing, Trump, Unemployment
New York Times (March 31)
President Trump is poised to introduce what are at least “the nation’s highest tariffs since the 1940s.” Unfortunately, these will lead to “lower economic growth, higher inflation, higher unemployment, the destruction of wealth and a tax increase on American families.” In addition, they “will deal a blow to the rules underlying the global trading system and further empower China.”
Tags: Destruction, Economic growth, Empower, Families, Global trading system, Higher inflation, Highest, Rules, Tariffs, Tax increase, Trump, U.S., Unemployment, Wealth
Financial Times (February 7)
The Bank of England (BoE) “has halved its 2025 growth estimate and cut interest rates… as it contends with a stagnant UK economy and an increasingly uncertain international environment.” In November, the BoE expected annual economic growth of 1.5%. Now it expects growth of just 0.75%, with higher unemployment and rising inflation. The new forecasts “will stoke fears of stagflation” and the Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously to cut benchmark rates from 4.75% to 4.5%.
Tags: 2025, Benchmark, BOE, Economic growth, Environment, Forecasts, Halved, Inflation, Interest rates, MPC, Stagflation, Stagnant, UK, Uncertain, Unemployment
Barron’s (December 23)
Brazil ends 2024 in a paradox. The economy is strong with GDP expected to “reach 3% for the third year running. Unemployment is at a record low and the trade surplus at an all-time high.” Nevertheless, “markets are awful.” Investors appear to be “looking past the healthy present to a recurrence of Brazil’s chronic economic disease: excessive government spending that spurs runaway inflation and crowds out growth with debt payments.”
Tags: 2024, Brazil, Chronic, Debt payments, Economy, GDP, Government spending, Growth, Investors, Markets, Paradox, Recurrence, Runaway inflation, Trade surplus, Unemployment
Washington Post (October 10)
“By just about every measure, the U.S. economy is in good shape. Growth is strong. Unemployment is low. Inflation is back down. More important, many Americans are getting sizable pay raises, and middle-class wealth has surged to record levels.” And yet the lingering effects of inflation seem to have blinded many to the fact that “we are living through one of the best economic years of many people’s lifetimes.”
Tags: Best, Economy, Growth, Inflation, Lingering, Middle class, Pay raises, Record levels, Strong, Surged, U.S., Unemployment, Wealth
Bloomberg (October 7)
“The ‘no landing’ scenario–a situation where the US economy keeps growing, inflation reignites and the Federal Reserve has little room to cut interest rates–had largely disappeared as a bond-market talking point in recent months.” After “setting up for slowing growth,” traders are undergoing another “wrenching recalibration” on the heels of a “blowout” jobs report “showing the fastest job growth in six months, a surprising drop in US unemployment and higher wages.” Treasury yields surged and investors are “furiously reversing course on bets for a larger-than-normal half-point interest-rate reduction.”
Tags: Blowout, Bond market, Economy, Fed, Growing, Inflation, Interest rates, Jobs, No landing, Recalibration, Scenario, Traders, Treasury yields, U.S., Unemployment, Wages
Markets Insider (August 3)
“Japan’s stocks took a hit on Friday, fueled by economic concerns in the US and the Bank of Japan’s interest-rate hike earlier this week.” Closing down 5.8%, the Nikkei marked “its largest daily decline since March 2020 after hitting record highs earlier this month.” The Nikkei was not alone. Amid signs of a cooling economy, U.S. stock indices “tanked across the board over the past two days due to a combination of discouraging economic data points, including rising unemployment and slowing manufacturing and construction.”
Tags: 2020, 5.8%, BOJ, Construction, Cooling, Decline, Discouraging, Economic concerns, Friday, Interest-rate hike, Japan, Manufacturing, Nikkei, Record highs, Stocks, U.S., Unemployment
New York Times (February 5)
“A sense of foreboding,” carried over from the pandemic, remains shared by many Americans. Though this “sense of insecurity has seeped into the crevices of everyday experience,” it increasingly seems to “conflict with data points that reflect an unambiguous strengthening of the American economy. Incomes have risen, unemployment remains low and consumer confidence is improving.”
Tags: Conflict, Data points, Economy, Everyday, Foreboding, Incomes, Insecurity, Pandemic, Strengthening, U.S., Unemployment
Financial Times (January 9)
“Unemployment in the eurozone fell back to a record low of 6.4 per cent in November, defying recent economic gloom after the number of jobless people fell almost 100,000 from a month earlier.” With the job market “proving more resilient than expected,” the ECB may worry more “about the timing of a potential cut in interest rates” as “rapid wage growth could keep price pressures elevated.”
Tags: 4%, Cut, ECB, Economic gloom, eurozone, Interest rates, Jobless, Market, November, Record, Resilient, Timing, Unemployment, Wage growth
