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New York Times (February 5)

2024/ 02/ 05 by jd in Global News

“A sense of foreboding,” carried over from the pandemic, remains shared by many Americans. Though this “sense of insecurity has seeped into the crevices of everyday experience,” it increasingly seems to “conflict with data points that reflect an unambiguous strengthening of the American economy. Incomes have risen, unemployment remains low and consumer confidence is improving.”

 

Financial Times (January 9)

2024/ 01/ 09 by jd in Global News

“Unemployment in the eurozone fell back to a record low of 6.4 per cent in November, defying recent economic gloom after the number of jobless people fell almost 100,000 from a month earlier.” With the job market “proving more resilient than expected,” the ECB may worry more “about the timing of a potential cut in interest rates” as “rapid wage growth could keep price pressures elevated.”

 

The Atlantic (January 4)

2024/ 01/ 06 by jd in Global News

“The illusion persists, despite all evidence…. Poll after poll shows that at best, only 20 percent of Americans say the economy is doing better than it was a year ago.” But by very valid measures, many more are doing better: “Unemployment is lower. Wages are growing. Inflation is declining…. These are tangible improvements in household income that should be cheering people up. And still, they are not.”

 

New York Times (November 9)

2023/ 11/ 11 by jd in Global News

The U.S. economy “has accomplished what many, perhaps most, economists considered impossible: a large fall in inflation without a recession or even a big rise in unemployment.” A recent Goldman Sachs report declares “The Hard Part Is Over,” making the case “that we’re managing to combine rapid disinflation with solid growth, and that it expects this happy combination — the opposite of stagflation — to continue.”

 

Financial Times (September 1)

2023/ 09/ 03 by jd in Global News

“The US labour market cooled in August, raising hopes that the Federal Reserve is successfully orchestrating a soft landing for the world’s largest economy. Investors hailed a possible Goldilocks scenario in which inflation comes under control without causing a recession, as Friday’s figures revealed an uptick in the unemployment rate, subdued jobs growth and wage rises back at pre-Covid rates.”

 

BBC (November 3)

2022/ 11/ 04 by jd in Global News

“The Bank of England has warned the UK is facing its longest recession since records began, as it raised interest rates by the most in 33 years,” indicating that “the UK would face a ‘very challenging’ two-year slump with unemployment nearly doubling by 2025.” The BoE’s forecast paints “a picture of a painful economic period, with the UK performing worse than the US and the Eurozone.”

 

Fortune (September 24)

2022/ 09/ 25 by jd in Global News

“Nowhere is this crisis more pronounced and more dangerous than in Europe, where a long-standing gambit on cheap Russian gas has backfired.” With winter, it looks certain to get even worse. “Even the slightest uptick in energy demand… could push entire sectors of Europe’s manufacturing industry to shut down entirely, devastating European economies with a wave of unemployment, high prices, and in all likelihood public unrest and divisions between European nations.”

 

WARC (August 1)

2022/ 08/ 02 by jd in Global News

“Whether it’s $18 for a two-ounce ginseng drink or $75,000 for a luxury mattress, the story is the same: Chinese consumers are becoming more frugal and the days of carefree spending have gone.” For over a decade, upmarket western brands have relied on China’s “expanding middle class” to drive growth, “but now, with a slowing economy, growing unemployment and a disruptive zero-COVID policy, those same middle classes are as likely to be saving as spending.”

 

Washington Post (May 8)

2022/ 05/ 09 by jd in Global News

“Why are Americans so gloomy about the economy? Jobs are plentiful and unemployment is back at pre-pandemic lows, yet sentiment is in the dumps.” Inflation is “the obvious answer,” but “a deeper force” better explains “why Americans are so upset: scarcity.” Inventories of homes and cars are at record lows while stockouts at supermarkets are double or triple standard levels. “There is good economic news, but until Americans can easily get ahold of what they want, too many will still feel like they’re not able to get ahead.”

 

Bloomberg (April 18)

2022/ 04/ 19 by jd in Global News

“The slower the Fed, the harder the landing.” Quick action while inflation expectations are “still well anchored” will minimize the “cost in terms of foregone output and higher unemployment.” Those costs will mushroom if the Fed “waits and allows inflation expectations to get out of hand.” A recession remains unlikely in 2022, but if there isn’t one “in the next couple years, it will only be worse.”

 

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