The Week (March 18)
“In the immediate aftermath of Poland’s Communist collapse, the country was considered one of the most economically dire in Europe — but the status quo has changed in a major way. Poland now has the 20th largest economy in the world.” In 2025, GDP growth of 3.65% and economic output in excess of $1 trillion vaulted the nation over Switzerland and into the top 20.
Tags: $1 trillion, 2025, 20th, 3.65%, Aftermath, Communist collapse, Dire, Economy, Europe, GDP, Growth, Leapfrog, Output, Poland, Switzerland
Investment Week (July 11)
The UK was the “fastest growing G7 economy in Q1 2025, but this memory now seems distant. “Industry professionals have reacted with disappointment to the latest monthly UK GDP figures for May, which showed the economy contracted by 0.1%,” following on top of April’s 0.3% decline. Production output tumbled, “falling by 0.9% after an unchanged fall of 0.6% in April, while the construction sector dipped by 0.6% in May from a 0.8% growth the month before.”
Tags: April, Construction, Contracted, Decline, Disappointment, Fastest-growing, G7 economy, GDP, May, Output, Production, Q1 2025, Tumbled, UK
Bloomberg (April 5)
“The plunge in oil prices over the past two days following the twin shocks of President Donald Trump’s tariffs and the surprise boost in production from OPEC+ has altered the global energy landscape with stunning speed.” The market is frantically “tossing aside expectations for 2025” as Brent crude “tumbled 13% through Thursday and Friday to just over $66 a barrel, casting new doubts on Trump’s quest to aggressively boost US fossil fuel output and achieve ‘energy dominance.’”
Tags: $66, 2025, Altered, Brent, Doubts, Energy landscape, Expectations, Fossil fuel, Market, Oil prices, OPEC, Output, Plunge, Production, Stunning, Surprise, Trump’s tariffs, Tumbled, Twin shocks, U.S.
Foreign Policy (March 11)
Some question China’s 5.2% GDP growth figure for the final quarter of 2023, but even assuming “the figures are accurate, the wider trends of the Chinese economy suggest a worrying state of affairs.” China’s real GDP figure exceeded its nominal figure. This “indicates that Beijing’s gross value of output in real terms was amplified thanks to negative inflation…. If not for deflation, China’s real GDP growth in 2023 would have been even lower and would have certainly missed the national target of 5 percent.”
Tags: 2023, Accurate, China, Deflation, Economy, GDP, Gross value, Growth, Negative inflation, Nominal, Output, Real GDP, Trends, Worrying
Reuters (February 5)
“Prolonged factory deflation is threatening the survival of smaller Chinese exporters who are locked in relentless price wars for shrinking business as higher interest rates abroad and rising trade protectionism squeeze demand.” Fifteen months of falling producer prices have crushed “profit margins to the point where industrial output and jobs are now at risk,” further “compounding China’s economic woes, which include a property crisis and debt crunch.”
Tags: China, Demand, Economic woes, Exporters, Factory deflation, Interest rates, Jobs, Output, Price wars, Producer prices, Profit margins, Prolonged, Property crisis, Relentless, Risk, Survival, Threatening, Trade protectionism
Wall Street Journal (September 11)
“For every American employed making steel or aluminum in 2018, 36 were employed by firms that used steel or aluminum as inputs. By raising the prices of these metals, Mr. Trump’s tariffs destroyed far more manufacturing jobs than they created. Overall manufacturing employment fell in each of the four quarters of 2019…. Under Mr. Trump’s protectionist policy, total manufacturing output was 2% lower by the start of the pandemic than it was when he raised tariffs.”
Tags: 2018, Aluminum, Destroyed, Employment, Fell, Inputs, Jobs, Manufacturing, Metals, Output, Pandemic, Prices, Protectionist policy, Steel, Tariffs, Trump
Seeking Alpha (April 5)
“Investors were taken by surprise on April 2nd when news broke that OPEC+…announced unexpected cuts in output. This move came even in spite of a previously rosy forecast for the supply and demand balance that OPEC made public…. Investors would be wise to see this as a bullish development for any company that benefits from higher oil prices. But in particular, the exploration and production companies could be very appealing to consider at this time.”
Tags: Appealing, Bullish, Demand, Exploration, Forecast, Investors, Oil prices, OPEC, Output, Production, Supply, Surprise, Unexpected
Bloomberg (March 16)
“Powerful AI systems like GPT-4 aren’t going to replace large swaths of professional workers, as many have instinctively feared. But they will put them under greater pressure to be more productive and faster at what they do. They will raise the bar on what is considered acceptable output and usher in an era of ultra-efficiency unlike anything we’ve seen before…. Watch out for how they might take you a tiny step closer to burnout.”
Tags: Acceptable, AI, Faster, Fear, GPT-4, Output, Powerful, Pressure, Productive, Professional workers, Replace, Ultra-efficiency
Bloomberg (April 18)
“The slower the Fed, the harder the landing.” Quick action while inflation expectations are “still well anchored” will minimize the “cost in terms of foregone output and higher unemployment.” Those costs will mushroom if the Fed “waits and allows inflation expectations to get out of hand.” A recession remains unlikely in 2022, but if there isn’t one “in the next couple years, it will only be worse.”
Tags: Anchored, Costs, Expectations, Fed, Inflation, Landing, Output, Quick action, Recession, Slower, Unemployment, Worse
Wall Street Journal (August 13)
“The U.K. recorded a steeper second-quarter contraction than its peers, suffering the worst economic hit from the coronavirus in Europe as well as reporting the highest death toll there.” Great Britain’s GDP “shrank 20.4% in the second quarter, equivalent to an annualized rate of 59.8%,…. In the same period, U.S. and German output declined by around 10%, while Italy lost 12%, France 14% and Spain 19%.”
Tags: Contraction, Coronavirus, Death toll, Economic hit, Europe, France, GDP, Germany, Italy, Output, Peers, Suffering, U.K., U.S.
