Market Watch (January 14)
“For investors, a meaningful erosion of central-bank independence would weaken the Fed’s inflation-targeting discipline and be negative for both stocks and bonds, as markets have long operated under the assumption that Fed independence will hold.” Although “we do not expect the Trump administration to capture the Federal Reserve, continued pressure on central-bank independence is likely to weigh on the U.S. dollar.” Ultimately, “market calm is conditional on the Senate acting as a backstop to Fed independence. If that condition is misread, markets will break down.”
Tags: Bonds, Capture, Central bank, Discipline, Dollar, Erosion, Fed, Independence, Inflation, Investors, Markets, Negative, Senate, Stocks, Trump, U.S., Weaken
Wall Street Journal (November 23)
“Fear of bursting investment bubbles. Concern the economy is slowing. Pressure on investors to cash in profits. These forces are colliding in markets, leading to the sharpest intraday swings for stocks in months and leaving investors bracing for more.” Already, the S&P 500 is down 3.5% in November.” Not to be outdone, the “Nasdaq composite has slid more than 6%” during the same period.”
Tags: Bubbles, Bursting, Cash, Colliding, Concern, Economy, Fear, Intraday swings, Investment, Investors, Markets, Nasdaq, November, Pressure, Profits, S&P 500, Stocks
Barron’s (November 10)
“The longest government shutdown on record may be nearing its conclusion, and U.S. stocks are likely to claw back a big chunk of last week’s decline.” But end of the shutdown is “a band-aid, not a cure” for markets. “The long, and likely volatile path to reopening the federal government…will only mask the major issues investors are grappling with heading into the final weeks of the trading year, and the stock market could break in either direction once some of those questions are addressed.”
Tags: Band-aid, Cure, Decline, Government, Investors, Longest, Record, Shutdown, Stock market, Stocks, Trading, U.S., Volatile
Wall Street Journal (October 25)
“Big Tech stocks are extremely expensive but have been for years. If OpenAI quickly comes up with a vital service everyone proves willing to pay big bucks to use, maybe even its price can be justified. After all, the only absolute proof of a bubble comes when it bursts.”
Tags: Big tech, Bubble, Bursts, Expensive, Justified, OpenAI, Pay, Price, Proof, Stocks, Vital service
South China Morning Post (August 29)
According to Nomura Holdings, “the ongoing rally in Chinese stocks will do little to boost growth in the mainland’s economy, as equity investments account for a small portion of total household assets.” Only 1.3% of total household assets are in equities. In contrast, Chinese households have about 60% “of their wealth in the struggling property market.”
Tags: China, Economy, Equity, Growth, Household assets, Investments, Nomura, Property market, Rally, Stocks, Struggling, Wealth
Bloomberg (August 24)
“China’s economy is being strained by US tariffs and a deep-rooted property crisis, yet stocks are extending their bull run — a disconnect that’s stirring doubts on the rally’s staying power. In just the past month, onshore stocks have added almost a trillion dollars to their market value, the Shanghai Composite Index has hit a decade-high and the CSI 300 Index has taken its advance from this year’s low to more than 20%. That’s when nearly every recent economic indicator — from consumption trends, home prices to inflation — has brought red flags for investors.”
Tags: Bull run, China, Consumption trends, CSI 300, Disconnect, Doubts, Economic indicator, Economy, Home prices, Inflation, Investors, Market value, Property crisis, Rally, Red flags, Shanghai, Staying power, Stocks, US tariffs
Barron’s (August 14)
“Investors have typically penalized emerging markets such as Turkey, Argentina, and China due to concerns about the independence of the central bank, government intervention in the private sector, and rampant overspending.” Now these concerns are focused on “the U.S., which has historically been the paragon of a developed market.” Investors are reevaluating “the premium that U.S. assets have long commanded” and this could lead to “weaker long-run returns for stocks or, more immediately, higher bond yields and a continuation in the weakness of the dollar that has emerged this year.”
Tags: Argentina, Bond yields, Central bank, China, Developed market, Emerging markets, Government intervention, Independence, Investors, Overspending, Paragon, Penalized, Premium, Private-sector, Rampant, Reevaluating, Returns, Stocks, Turkey, U.S. assets
Wall Street Journal (July 12)
“Would Tariff Man please take a summer vacation for the good of the nation? Stocks tumbled on Friday after President Trump announced he will raise tariffs on Canada to 35%, starting Aug. 1.” Following this, Trump “floated increasing his current 10% across-the-board tariffs on many countries to 15% or 20%.” Tarriff Man “seems to think that his unpredictability is a negotiating advantage. But keeping trading partners guessing—along with investors and U.S. companies with global supply chains—isn’t a recipe for economic strength.”
Tags: 35%, Advantage, Canada, Companies, Economic strength, Investors, Negotiating, Stocks, Summer vacation, Supply chains, Tariff Man, Trading partners, Trump, Tumbled, U.S., Unpredictability
Fortune (July 1)
“Consumer spending is weakening. The job market is getting worse for workers. And U.S. stock investors are loving it. The S&P 500 rose 0.52% yesterday, hitting an all-time high for the second day in a row.” The surging market suggests “investors don’t anticipate anything dramatic like a mass selloff.” Their optimism seems to be pinned on hopes that “the deteriorating macro picture” will convince the Federal Reserve to “cut interest rates sooner rather than later. And cheap money is usually good for stocks.”
Tags: All-time high, Consumer spending, Fed, Investors, Job market, Mass selloff, Optimism, S&P 500, Stocks, Surging, U.S., Weakening, Workers
Reuters (May 29)
“The U.S. dollar’s unusual moves in April, when it fell in tandem with stocks, has cast doubt over a long-lasting relationship between the greenback and risky assets. Over time, it might nudge non-U.S. investors to hedge more or reduce their exposure to American stocks and bonds. Both could create a self-reinforcing downward cycle for the dollar.”
Tags: April, Bonds, Dollar, Doubt, Downward cycle, Exposure, Greenback, Hedge, Non-U.S. investors, Relationship, Risky assets. Over, Self-reinforcing, Stocks, Unusual moves
