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Foreign Policy (November 28)

2022/ 11/ 30 by jd in Global News

After engineering “changes in China’s leadership succession rules so that he can preside over his country for life,” Xi is now confronting “a crisis that may come to be seen as an ideal test of the middle-income trap theory.” Deep down, Xi probably realizes “that at some point China’s political system will have to adapt for the country to continue to modernize” and avoid this trap. But for Xi, much like other “leaders who concentrate immense power in their own hands,” the problem is that “no moment ever quite looks like a good one to make serious, substantive change.”

 

The Guardian (November 23)

2022/ 11/ 24 by jd in Global News

“A crisis is brewing” in Scotland. “Ms Sturgeon intends to demonstrate such demand for separation that a Westminster government using its constitutional power of obstruction would appear to be in egregious violation of democratic principle. If unionists do not want to be caught in that position, they need something more than a legal veto over a referendum. They need the political arguments that can win one.”

 

The Economist (October 22)

2022/ 10/ 24 by jd in Global News

“House prices are now falling in nine rich economies…. In condo-crazed Canada homes cost 9% less than they did in February. As inflation and recession stalk the world a deepening correction is likely.” Falling home prices are unlikely to lead to a global banking crisis, but “it will intensify the downturn, leave a cohort of people with wrecked finances and start a political storm.”

 

Bloomberg (September 26)

2022/ 09/ 26 by jd in Global News

“Asian markets risk a reprise of crisis-level stress as two of the region’s most important currencies crumble under the onslaught of relentless dollar strength. The yuan and yen are both tumbling due to the growing disparity between an uber-hawkish Federal Reserve and dovish policy makers in China and Japan.”

 

Fortune (September 24)

2022/ 09/ 25 by jd in Global News

“Nowhere is this crisis more pronounced and more dangerous than in Europe, where a long-standing gambit on cheap Russian gas has backfired.” With winter, it looks certain to get even worse. “Even the slightest uptick in energy demand… could push entire sectors of Europe’s manufacturing industry to shut down entirely, devastating European economies with a wave of unemployment, high prices, and in all likelihood public unrest and divisions between European nations.”

 

U.S. News (August 3)

2022/ 08/ 05 by jd in Global News

“A surge in consumer demand and pandemic-related logjams holding up containers in key ports had boosted freight rates and profits in the shipping industry in recent quarters, yet the cost of living crisis has reversed that trend.” Shipping giant Maersk, which controls 17% of the container shipping market “expects global container demand to fall this year as sales of durable goods come to a ‘standstill.’” Inflation, “dented consumer demand” and the weaker economy “could lead to a normalization of the global shipping market towards the end of the year.”

 

Barron’s (July 24)

2022/ 07/ 25 by jd in Global News

“China’s property slump and suffering economy is leading some to wonder if China could be on the brink of its own Lehman-style crisis. While the troubles facing China’s economy are substantial, it’s unlikely to push China into the type of meltdown that sends the country’s financial system into a tailspin.”

 

Wall Street Journal (July 23)

2022/ 07/ 25 by jd in Global News

The facts being presented by the Jan. 6 special committee are “sobering,” and “the most horrifying to date” was “President Trump’s conduct as the riot raged and he sat watching TV, posting inflammatory tweets and refusing to send help…. Character is revealed in a crisis, and Mr. Pence passed his Jan. 6 trial. Mr. Trump utterly failed his.”

 

New York Times (April 20)

2022/ 04/ 23 by jd in Global News

“The World Health Organization concluded last year that air pollution is ‘the single largest environmental threat to human health and well-being.’” Recognizing “the low quality of the air that we breathe” is a crisis would help bring greater immediacy to “the existential threat of climate change…. The solution to both threats is the same: We need to stop burning fossil fuels, preferably yesterday.”

 

Professional Pensions (April 19)

2022/ 04/ 20 by jd in Global News

“The response by pension schemes and other investors to the invasion was immediate and, in the days following Russia’s attack, a number of pension schemes announced they would reduce or sell all their holdings as soon as possible.” Exposure to Russia varied by scheme, but was low overall, at around “0.1% for many schemes, holdings that many managers have written down to zero.” All in all, the “market reaction to the crisis was surprisingly muted,” with fairly stable funding levels throughout the crisis.

 

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