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Reuters (February 5)

2024/ 02/ 06 by jd in Global News

“Prolonged factory deflation is threatening the survival of smaller Chinese exporters who are locked in relentless price wars for shrinking business as higher interest rates abroad and rising trade protectionism squeeze demand.” Fifteen months of falling producer prices have crushed “profit margins to the point where industrial output and jobs are now at risk,” further “compounding China’s economic woes, which include a property crisis and debt crunch.”

 

Institutional Investor (November 27)

2023/ 11/ 28 by jd in Global News

“Retail beef prices hit a record in July, as base demand across all grades, from prime to select, remained ‘incredibly good’…. Cattle supplies are tight and are likely to stay that way for the next few years as drought and high input prices will limit herd expansion.”

 

Oilprice.com (October 24)

2023/ 10/ 25 by jd in Global News

OPEC recently forecast “that demand for oil is going to continue rising at least until 2045.” In contrast, the just released Energy Outlook from the International Energy Agency forecasts that “demand for oil, natural gas, and coal is set to peak before 2030, which undermines the case for increasing investment in fossil fuels…. While the agency does admit that investment in fossil fuels will remain necessary, it claims the growth era is over.”

 

Financial Times (July 29)

2023/ 07/ 30 by jd in Global News

“Inflation is falling for a number of reasons “beyond the Fed’s control,” like an easing of the worst impacts from “the pandemic and the war in Ukraine.” But the Fed’s rate hikes have effectively “reduced demand for credit.” The results can be seen in mortgage debt and car loans. “Overall, growth in non-revolving credit—the loans you take out just once, like a mortgage—is now just below zero.” There’s one snag on the revolving credit side, where credit growth is still “coming from credit cards.”

 

New York Times (June 19)

2023/ 06/ 20 by jd in Global News

“China’s economic weakness holds benefits and dangers for the global economy. Consumer and producer prices have fallen for the past four months in China, putting a brake on inflation in the West by pushing down the cost of imports from China. But weak demand in China may exacerbate a global slowdown. “

 

Barron’s (April 21)

2023/ 04/ 23 by jd in Global News

“Oil prices have given back almost all of the gains they made after OPEC and its allies surprised the market by agreeing to cut production by 1.2 million barrels a day starting in May. It’s a sign that the oil market is more focused on demand now, and doesn’t see enough evidence that countries are using more oil.”

 

American Banker (April 14)

2023/ 04/ 16 by jd in Global News

“Investors have been fretting over whether commercial real estate loans, particularly at small banks, will hold up in the coming months. One prominent investor warned recently that urban office buildings should be demolished because demand won’t return and converting towers into apartment buildings is often impractical.”

 

Seeking Alpha (April 5)

2023/ 04/ 06 by jd in Global News

“Investors were taken by surprise on April 2nd when news broke that OPEC+…announced unexpected cuts in output. This move came even in spite of a previously rosy forecast for the supply and demand balance that OPEC made public…. Investors would be wise to see this as a bullish development for any company that benefits from higher oil prices. But in particular, the exploration and production companies could be very appealing to consider at this time.”

 

Bloomberg (March 5)

2023/ 03/ 06 by jd in Global News

China’s reopening “means Chinese oil consumption is poised to hit a record this year. Daily demand will reach an all-time high of 16 million barrels a day,” and looks increasingly likely to tip the price back above $100 a barrel amid tight supply.

 

Bloomberg (February 9)

2023/ 02/ 11 by jd in Global News

“Money managers have cut $300 billion of bearish bets and are now positioned more in line with historic norms — robbing the market of pent-up demand just as the Federal Reserve warns its inflation-fighting battle is far from over.”

 

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