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Financial Times (March 10)

2020/ 03/ 11 by jd in Global News

“At some point the music stops playing for investors.” That happened yesterday. “The initial shock was the cornonavirus outbreak’s impact on the global economy. Then came the blow of an oil price war. Next is escalating financial contagion. Markets are likely to burn until the fuel of high debt levels and aggressive risk taking is extinguished.”

 

Wall Street Journal (March 4)

2020/ 03/ 06 by jd in Global News

“The Federal Reserve has become the default doctor for whatever ails the U.S. economy, and on Tuesday the financial physician applied what it hopes will be monetary balm for the economic damage from the coronavirus.” Alas “financial markets were underwhelmed.” This “may speak to the limited effect that lower interest rates can have on the supply shock of a pandemic.”

 

Wall Street Journal (February 2)

2020/ 02/ 04 by jd in Global News

“Investors are betting the volatility that has rattled markets over the past two weeks is here to stay. Many are bracing for dramatic swings in stocks as the U.S. presidential election season ramps up and investors assess the impact of the coronavirus outbreak on global economic activity.”

 

Financial Times (June 5)

2019/ 06/ 07 by jd in Global News

“Just a month ago, multinationals and investors were looking forward to an agreement that would end the China-US trade war that has rocked global markets for the past year. Instead, talks broke down.” Donald Trump “further enraged Chinese officials by barring Huawei, the best-known Chinese telecoms company, from sourcing American components and technology.” China’s new list of unreliable entities appears to be in retaliation and it has panicked foreign investors. The “vague wording suggests Beijing could move against any person or organization.”

 

South China Morning Post (January 22)

2019/ 01/ 23 by jd in Global News

“Trump’s aggressive trade actions have also made investors much more sensitive to China’s domestic economic woes, a development which Trump doubtless views as a sign that his administration is winning the trade war but which has backfired due to the adverse spillover effects on America’s economy and markets…. A trade truce, should one materialise, has come too late.”

 

Reuters (January 2)

2019/ 01/ 02 by jd in Global News

“As U.S. and Chinese delegations prepare for upcoming trade talks in Beijing, the two countries’ disputes over tariffs and trade are rattling markets, businesses, governments, consumers and workers across the globe. All of this corrosive uncertainty was entirely predictable…. Elaborate negotiations take tenacity, expertise and planning. They also take time.”

 

Bloomberg (December 3)

2018/ 12/ 03 by jd in Global News

Trump and Xi gave “markets the most they could have expected,” which wasn’t that much. Still, they avoided the “risk of a serious downside (an angry confrontation and a meeting ending with recriminations and no agreement).” While some may see justification for “risk on” investing, it’s worth noting that this truce is only temporary, “in the longer term, all the risks remain in place.”

 

Forbes (November 16)

2018/ 11/ 17 by jd in Global News

“The looming prospect of no-deal Brexit is already spooking markets. Sterling tanked today, and the cost of CDS protection on U.K. government debt rose. Shares in Britain’s state-owned bank RBS fell by 9%.”

 

Reuters (October 17)

2018/ 10/ 18 by jd in Global News

“Financial markets have some things in common with professional sport. Investors and fans are both desperate for winners and despondent about losing. They are passionate about little ups and downs, while outsiders often find the rules arcane and the enthusiasm weird. And for both, all the jumping and screaming has little effect on the rest of the economy.”

 

Traders Magazine (August 14)

2018/ 08/ 17 by jd in Global News

Despite the fear, “stock predicting AI will never take over the world,” markets are a level two chaos event (L2CE): they respond to predictions. There is “a feedback loop. The program would have to predict share prices based upon variables including the share price it has just predicted. In other words, the forecast given by a stock prediction bot can never be right, if the amount traded because of this prediction is great enough to make it wrong.”

 

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