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Financial Times (June 5)

2019/ 06/ 07 by jd in Global News

“Just a month ago, multinationals and investors were looking forward to an agreement that would end the China-US trade war that has rocked global markets for the past year. Instead, talks broke down.” Donald Trump “further enraged Chinese officials by barring Huawei, the best-known Chinese telecoms company, from sourcing American components and technology.” China’s new list of unreliable entities appears to be in retaliation and it has panicked foreign investors. The “vague wording suggests Beijing could move against any person or organization.”

 

South China Morning Post (January 22)

2019/ 01/ 23 by jd in Global News

“Trump’s aggressive trade actions have also made investors much more sensitive to China’s domestic economic woes, a development which Trump doubtless views as a sign that his administration is winning the trade war but which has backfired due to the adverse spillover effects on America’s economy and markets…. A trade truce, should one materialise, has come too late.”

 

Reuters (January 2)

2019/ 01/ 02 by jd in Global News

“As U.S. and Chinese delegations prepare for upcoming trade talks in Beijing, the two countries’ disputes over tariffs and trade are rattling markets, businesses, governments, consumers and workers across the globe. All of this corrosive uncertainty was entirely predictable…. Elaborate negotiations take tenacity, expertise and planning. They also take time.”

 

Bloomberg (December 3)

2018/ 12/ 03 by jd in Global News

Trump and Xi gave “markets the most they could have expected,” which wasn’t that much. Still, they avoided the “risk of a serious downside (an angry confrontation and a meeting ending with recriminations and no agreement).” While some may see justification for “risk on” investing, it’s worth noting that this truce is only temporary, “in the longer term, all the risks remain in place.”

 

Forbes (November 16)

2018/ 11/ 17 by jd in Global News

“The looming prospect of no-deal Brexit is already spooking markets. Sterling tanked today, and the cost of CDS protection on U.K. government debt rose. Shares in Britain’s state-owned bank RBS fell by 9%.”

 

Reuters (October 17)

2018/ 10/ 18 by jd in Global News

“Financial markets have some things in common with professional sport. Investors and fans are both desperate for winners and despondent about losing. They are passionate about little ups and downs, while outsiders often find the rules arcane and the enthusiasm weird. And for both, all the jumping and screaming has little effect on the rest of the economy.”

 

Traders Magazine (August 14)

2018/ 08/ 17 by jd in Global News

Despite the fear, “stock predicting AI will never take over the world,” markets are a level two chaos event (L2CE): they respond to predictions. There is “a feedback loop. The program would have to predict share prices based upon variables including the share price it has just predicted. In other words, the forecast given by a stock prediction bot can never be right, if the amount traded because of this prediction is great enough to make it wrong.”

 

Wall Street Journal (July 18)

2018/ 07/ 20 by jd in Global News

To “counter U.S. protectionism, the EU and China are drawing closer together.” While the EU remains at odds with China on certain trade issues, Trump’s tariffs have helped to paint China in a better light globally. “China has increasingly used the mounting trade spats to portray itself as a protector of the rules-based international order, while chastising the U.S. for disrupting global commerce…. China’s engagement with the EU is driven by its desire to keep open world markets that its manufacturers need to thrive.”

 

Financial Times (June 5)

2018/ 06/ 07 by jd in Global News

“A clear lesson from last week’s sharp sell-off in Italian bond markets: the ‘doom loop’ that creates a direct link between eurozone countries and their banking systems is still a powerful force.”

 

CNBC (May 29)

2018/ 05/ 31 by jd in Global News

“Political uncertainty in Italy has unhinged world markets, raising the specter of a euro crisis that could ripple across the global economy and even force the Federal Reserve to slow its rate-hiking plans.” While odds appear low that Italy will opt out of the single currency bloc, “internal chaos and a new election could make for a rocky summer for markets and even put a dent in European economic growth.”

 

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