Barron’s (October 21)
Tags: Elevated oil prices, Hope, Hostage crisis playbook, Inflation, Influence, Investors, Iran, Middle East, Options strategist, Respected, Standoff, Strait of Hormuz, Trump, U.S., Weakness
OilPrice.com (October 16)
Oil prices are heading for a “weekly gain as Hormuz attacks rattle markets…. Iranian strikes on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz had driven oil flows sharply down. In the week to October 13, the daily average dropped to 11.62 million barrels, from a baseline of 17.15 million barrels daily.”
Tags: 11.62 MMbbl, Attacks, Baseline, Flows, Hormuz, Iran, Markets, Oil prices, Rattle, Strait of Hormuz, Strikes, Tankers, Weekly gain
The New York Times (August 8)
“President Trump’s war against Iran has depleted U.S. weapons stockpiles to troubling levels, siphoning supplies from Asia and Europe…. The rapidly shrinking supply of air-defense missiles and other critical weaponry in Europe and Asia not only leaves the U.S. military less equipped, but could also leave Russia and China feeling emboldened should they contemplate a potential conflict with the United States.”
Tags: Air-defense missiles, Asia, China, Conflict, Depleted, Emboldened, Europe, Iran, Military, Russia, Shrinking supply, Troubling, Trump, U.S., War, Weapons stockpiles
OilPrice.com (August 2)
“When Iran shut down the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia quickly redirected its oil flows to the Red Sea. Now, that route has become dangerous because of the Houthi blockade, so Saudi is rerouting to Egypt” where two LNG tankers “just got struck by drones. OPEC’s number-one is running out of options to reroute its oil exports.”
Tags: Dangerous, Drones, Egypt, Houthi blockade, Iran, LNG tankers, Oil exports, OPEC, Options, Red Sea, Redirected, Reroute, Route, Saudi Arabia, Shut down, Strait of Hormuz
OilPrice.com (July 20)
“Traffic via Hormuz is once again paralyzed, tanker crossings are sporadic, and Iran and the United States are intensifying the exchange of fire. Meanwhile, global oil stocks are melting like snow. Oil prices have been on a climb for over a week now as hostilities in the Middle East continue, and despite recent talk of a glut, the physical market is flashing signs of tightness—and higher oil for longer.”
Tags: Global oil stocks, Glut, Higher, Hormuz, Hostilities, Intensifying, Iran, Longer, Middle East, Oil prices, Paralyzed, Physical market, Tanker crossings, Tightness, Traffic, U.S.
The Times of London (July 16)
“Even as US vessels launched hundreds of missiles at Iranian military targets in the past few days, Trump still seemed reluctant to unleash the type of all-out war necessary to bring the enemy to heel. As was the case during the initial five weeks of conflict this spring, the president seems rigidly focused on a low-risk, stand-off warfare, minimising the risks of close-up combat.” With the tactics of Trump’s campaign “explicitly designed to avoid high-intensity battle,” his “objectives are rooted more in hope than in strategy.”
Tags: Campaign, Conflict, Cose-up combat, Enemy, High-intensity battle, Hope, Iran, Low-risk, Military targets, Missiles, Objectives, Reluctant, Stand-off, Tactics, Trump, U.S., Vessels, Warfare
Time (July 16)
“Iran’s return to conflict is best read as a calculated gamble…. Above all, Tehran’s leadership fears a staged unwinding of its leverage. Once it stops threatening shipping and restrains its regional partners, those tools become difficult to recover.” While Iran may be “running a familiar playbook of escalating to deescalate” and may have an “accurate reading” of President Donald Trump’s desire “to avoid rising energy prices, American casualties, and another open ended war in the Middle East;” there’s less certainty about how that deescalation will come about. “There is no formal consensus… and no faction willing to move first on anything that could be portrayed as surrendering leverage, legitimizing the bombing campaign, or handing Trump a clear victory.”
Tags: Calculated, Casualties, Certainty, Conflict, Deescalate, Energy prices, Escalating, Fears, Iran, Leadership, Legitimizing, Leverage, Middle East, Recover, Shipping, Threatening, Tools, Trump, War
Bloomberg (July 6)
“Donald Trump’s war against Iran may be over, but the repercussions for global monetary policy are here to stay.” In particular, “the path for central bank interest rates around the world has now shifted higher for years to come.” Forecasts for borrowing costs calculated by Bloomberg Economics (BE) “show trajectories elevated by as much as half a percentage point or more through 2028 compared with those envisaged before the war. That’s both on BE’s global gauge for rates, and its measure for advanced economies.”
Tags: 2028, Bloomberg Economics, Borrowing costs, Central bank, Elevated, Forecasts, Global, Higher, Interest rates, Iran, Monetary policy, Repercussions, Trump, War
New York Times (June 27)
“Over the past 24 hours, prices have dipped below the levels not seen since Feb. 27, the eve of the war in Iran, when Brent crude settled at $72.48 a barrel.” The sharp drop is attributable to “increased optimism that a deal would be reached to enable more regular shipping flows through the strait.” And a lot of “oil coming through the strait is poised to hit the market all at once, putting downward pressure on prices.” The I.E.A. believes there could even be a glut next year as “global demand is expected to drop by almost five million barrels a day in the second quarter of 2026 partly because consumers scaled back their energy use during the conflict.”
Tags: Brent crude, Consumers, Dipped, Downward pressure, Energy use, Global demand, Glut, I.E.A., Iran, Market, Oil, Optimism, Prices, Shipping flows, Strait, War
The Times (June 18)
Donald Trump “promised to keep the US out of ‘dumb wars.’” This week he “ended one of America’s shortest wars with a deal that leaves an enemy regime in place in Iran, emboldened by its own survival, entrenched in defiance of the civilised world and even potentially enriched by the promise of boatloads of money to help rebuild its battered economy and war-making infrastructure.”
Tags: Battered economy, Civilised world, Deal, Defiance, Dumb wars, Emboldened, Enemy regime, Enriched, Entrenched, Iran, Money, Promised, Rebuild, Survival, Trump, U.S., War-making infrastructure
