OilPrice.com (April 12)
The Iran “crisis has thrown the precarity of the current global energy trade into sharp relief,” accelerating shifts in energy policy. That shift is expected to include “expanded clean energy production capacity” and greatly benefit China. Chinese companies are “incredibly well positioned to continue to consolidate their dominance in global markets, as they are by far the cheapest producer and most accessible trade partner for many nations that have been left in the lurch by the effective blockade of Hormuz.”
Tags: Accelerating, Accessible, Blockade, Capacity, Cheapest, China, Clean energy, Consolidate, Crisis, Dominance, Global markets, Hormuz, Iran, Policy, Precarity, Producer, Shifts, Trade, Trade partner
Financial Times (April 9)
“Among the many consequences of the stand-off in the Strait of Hormuz, it seems that we may look back on this as the week in which one of America’s most powerful geopolitical tools was shown to be a weakened stick. Threatening to limit access to the global dollar system now seems less fearsome.” US Treasury sanctions cover the entire country of Iran. “But not only does this not appear to have prevented it from selling oil while at war with the US, it has not seemed to stop it from charging ransom fees to international shipping seeking to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.”
Tags: Consequences, Fearsome, Geopolitical tools, Global dollar system, Iran, Oil, Ransom fees, Sanctions, Stand-off, Strait of Hormuz, Threatening, Treasury, U.S., Weakened
Barron’s (March 26)
“The war in Iran and consequent blockage of the Strait of Hormuz offer a stark reminder of a different geopolitical risk, one lurking in tech-heavy global portfolios that are betting on artificial intelligence: Taiwan.” 75% of global foundry revenue originates in the island nation. “Investors often put Taiwan in the ‘too big to fail’ bucket, meaning China wouldn’t dare attack anytime soon because of the cascading ramifications…. But the far-reaching ripples from Iran’s attacks on the Strait of Hormuz, itself once thought to be in the unlikely bucket, is a reminder of the risks to global chokeholds and the potential spillover from geopolitical conflict.”
Tags: AI, Attack, Cascading, China, Foundry, Geopolitical risk, Global chokeholds, Hormuz, Investors, Iran, Ramifications, Revenue, Spillover, Taiwan, War
Fortune (March 23)
“The great toilet paper panic is back as Japan starts stockpiling. As the U.S.-Israeli-Iran conflict rattles oil markets, Japanese consumers are stockpiling toilet paper—a product with no connection to the disruptions whatsoever, but that has caused enough problems for the country that the Japanese government has urged citizens to stop buying ahead of time.”
Tags: Citizens, Conflict, Consumers, Disruptions, Government, Iran, Israeli, Japan, Oil markets, Panic, Problems, Rattles, Stockpiling, Toilet paper, U.S.
New York Times (March 21)
“From his first announcement of the attack on Iran on Feb. 28, President Trump has issued a stream of falsehoods about the war.” It’s well documented that “lying is standard behavior for Mr. Trump,” but “lying about war is uniquely corrosive. When a president signals that the truth does not matter in wartime, he …. makes it harder to win by hiding the realities of conflict and by making allies wary of joining the fight. Ultimately, he undermines American values and interests.”
Tags: Allies, Attack, Conflict, Corrosive, Documented, Falsehoods, Iran, Lying, Realities, Signals, Standard behavior, Trump, Truth, Undermines, Values, War, Wartime, Wary
The Guardian (March 19)
“The US president wanted an easy win, but the conflict is spiralling following Israel’s attack on a gas field and Iranian retaliation across the region.” It is self evident “that the president was not paying heed when people described the likely consequences.” As “Trump breaks things,” the unknown is “who will pick up the pieces?”
Tags: Attack, Breaks, Conflict, Consequences, Easy win, Gas field, Iran, Israel, Pieces, President, Region, Retaliation, Spiralling, U.S.
Wall Street Journal (March 19)
“Escalating attacks on Persian Gulf oil-and-gas infrastructure are sending the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran into a dangerous new phase that threatens to worsen the crisis over global energy supplies…. Israel and Iran had already hit energy facilities throughout the nearly three-week-old war, but Wednesday’s attacks struck some of the world’s most important hubs and raised the prospect of tit-for-tat volleys against oil-and-gas facilities.”
Tags: Attacks, Crisis, Dangerous, Escalating, Facilities, Gas, Global energy, Hubs, Infrastructure, Iran, Israeli, New phase, Oil, Persian Gulf, Threatens, Tit-for-tat, U.S., War, Worsen
Bloomberg (March 16)
“Global oil markets face another week of turmoil after a US attack on Iran’s main export hub heightened risks to supply across the Middle East, and deepened concerns over a conflict that’s already upended energy flows.”
Tags: Attack, Concerns, Conflict, Deepened, Export hub, Global, Iran, Markets, Middle East, Oil, Risks, Supply, Turmoil, U.S., Upended
New York Times (March 15)
“Two weeks into a war against Iran that he chose to launch, President Trump faces a stark choice — stay in the battle to achieve the dauntingly ambitious goals he has set, or try to extract himself from an expanding and intensifying conflict that is generating damaging military, diplomatic and economic shock waves.”
Tags: Ambitious, Battle, Conflict, Damaging, Daunting, Diplomatic, Economic, Expanding, Extract, Goals, Intensifying, Iran, Launch, Military, Stark choice, Trump, War
MarketWatch (March 13)
“America’s “goldilocks” economy is over. The next seven days of the Iran conflict will set the stage for stagflation or global recession.” The U.S. was nearing perfection with unemployment at 4.4% and inflation down to 2.4%. Instead of basking in economic triumph, the U.S. now frets over a potential “doubling of the oil price,” which historically “coincides with a global recession. In today’s terms, that is $120-$140 a barrel. Brent crude brushed the bottom of that range earlier this week.”
Tags: $120-$140 bbl, Brent crude, Conflict, Doubling, Economy, Global recession, Goldilocks, Inflation, Iran, Oil price, Stagflation, U.S., Unemployment
