OilPrice.com (November 24)
“The international crude benchmark, Brent, could dip to the $30s per barrel handle by 2027 as oversupply could overwhelm the market, according to a JP Morgan forecast.” That is, however, beyond current consensus. “Despite the fears of a glut, analysts and investment banks don’t see oil prices moving down to $40 or below, even as oil is set to decline in the near term with strong supply from OPEC+ and the non-OPEC producers in the Americas.”
Tags: $30, $40, 2027, Analysts, Benchmark, Brent, Consensus, Crude, Fears, Forecast, Glut, Investment banks, JP Morgan, Market, Oil prices
LA Times (November 24)
“California is making so much solar energy that large commercial operators are increasingly forced to stop production, raising questions about the state’s costly plan to shift entirely to carbon-free sources of electricity.” Over the past year, “solar farms have curtailed production of more than 3 million megawatt hours of solar energy, either on the orders of the state’s grid operator or because prices had plummeted because of the glut.”
Tags: 3 million MWh, California, Carbon-free, Commercial operators, Electricity, Energy, Forced, Glut, Grid operator, Plummeted, Prices, Production, Solar farms
Fortune (October 3)
“The boss of German carmaker Mercedes-Benz is bracing his company for a ‘Darwinian battle’ as Europe’s auto giants reel from falling demand and the onslaught of Chinese competitors.” CEO Ola Källenius and Mercedes-Benz are at “a pivotal moment of sink or swim.” As EV uptake slows in the Europe, “a similar demand glut in China and the emergence of cheap competitors from the region has left Europe’s carmakers fighting fires at home and overseas.”
Tags: Carmaker, CEO, China, Competitors, Darwinian battle, Europe, EVs, Falling demand, Germany, Glut, Källenius, Mercedes-Benz, Onslaught
Markets Insider (January 17)
“The US and European Union are seeing large stockpiles of solar panels after soaring manufacturing capacity fueled a substantial oversupply.” At year end, “an estimated 45 gigawatts of modules in the US and 90 gigawatts in the EU had piled up, nearly twice the forecast installations for 2024.” The glut is leading to “even lower prices” and “fierce competition between manufacturers,” with “less efficient manufacturers… bound to lose out, as overcapacity and low module prices add to financial challenges.”
Tags: 2024, 45 GW, 90 GW, Competition, EU, Forecast installations, Glut, Manufacturing capacity, Overcapacity, Oversupply, Prices, Soaring, Solar panels, Stockpiles, U.S.
CNBC (November 13)
As large U.S. retailers report earnings, inventory levels will dominate the gaze of analysts and investors. Retailers including Walmart, Target and Gap “are trying to sell through a glut of extra merchandise piling up in store backrooms and warehouses…. Balancing inventory has taken on additional urgency, as economists warn of dwindling savings accounts, rising credit card debt and the risk of a recession.”
Tags: Analysts, Debt, Dominate, Earnings, Economists, Gap, Glut, Inventory, Investors, Merchandise, Retailers, Risk, Savings, Target, Urgency, Walmart, Warehouses
The Economist (July 18)
“Big change is coming, as countries around the world adopt cleaner sources of energy. Peak demand for oil may still be years away, but covid-19 has given the Middle East and north Africa a taste of the future. Prices of the black stuff plummeted as countries went into lockdown…. Even when the virus recedes, a glut of supply will probably keep prices down. Faced with budgets that no longer add up, Arab states must adapt.”
Tags: Budgets, Change, Cleaner, COVID-19, Energy, Glut, Middle East, North Africa, Peak demand, Plummeted, Prices, Supply
Financial Times (February 18)
The conditional deal between Saudi Arabia and Russia delivered “maximum rhetorical impact for the minimum genuine commitment.” Ultimately, it “will not take a single barrel of oil off the market to ease the glut that has driven crude prices down about 70 per cent since the summer of 2014.” The deal reveals “nervousness among the world’s two largest oil producers. But the fact that Saudi Arabia is not already cutting its output, in spite of mounting signs of financial strain, shows that while its strategy might be painful, it is still rational.”
Tags: Deal, Financial strain, Glut, Market, Oil, Output, Producers, Rational, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Strategy
Wall Street Journal (October 22)
“Much has changed since Beijing sparked a rare-earths panic in 2010. China was home to 95% of the world’s production, so when it tightened export quotas by 40% and then cut off shipments to Japan over a territorial dispute, buyers world-wide feared scarcity and prices rose tenfold.” Ironically, this spurred innovation, the use of substitutes and the reopening of mines in other countries. “By 2012 the world faced a glut of rare earths. Prices collapsed as much as 80%.” The rare-earths rollercoaster demonstrates “the ability of markets and human ingenuity to adapt to ill-advised attempts to hold natural resources hostage. When they’re allowed to work, markets always defeat mercantilism—a useful lesson for Beijing’s economic reformers.”
Tags: Beijing, China, Collapse, Export quotas, Glut, Innovation, Markets, Mercantilism, Natural resources, Prices, Production, Rare earths, Scarcity, Substitutes
Wall Street Journal (October 15)
“Murky data” are adding “to China’s housing headache.” The housing glut has eased in China, moving down from 25.2 months’ worth of supply in March to 16.5. But the “glut in China’s property market is worse than official data show,” as data excludes many partially completed or not yet for sale homes.
Wall Street Journal (October 22)
“Much has changed since Beijing sparked a rare-earths panic in 2010. China was home to 95% of the world’s production, so when it tightened export quotas by 40% and then cut off shipments to Japan over a territorial dispute, buyers world-wide feared scarcity and prices rose tenfold.” Ironically, this spurred innovation, the use of substitutes and the reopening of mines in other countries. “By 2012 the world faced a glut of rare earths. Prices collapsed as much as 80%.” The rare-earths rollercoaster demonstrates “the ability of markets and human ingenuity to adapt to ill-advised attempts to hold natural resources hostage. When they’re allowed to work, markets always defeat mercantilism—a useful lesson for Beijing’s economic reformers.”
Tags: Beijing, Export quotas, Glut, Innovation, Markets, Mercantilism, Natural resources, Production, Rare earths, Substitutes
