OilPrice.com (February 16)
“For decades, oil prices could swing wildly on even the distant prospect of war in the Middle East. As U.S. shale now accounts for a significant share of the global market, analysts and investors appear to have grown complacent. It is widely assumed, that “anything short of an oil blockade in the Strait of Hormuz will leave oil cold—and such a blockade is highly unlikely. This, however, is a false sense of security. Geopolitics can still flip the script on oil bears.”
Tags: Analysts, Bears, Blockade, Complacent, False, Geopolitics, Global market, Investors, Middle East, Oil prices, Security, Strait of Hormuz, Swing, U.S., War, Wildly
Fortune (December 19)
“While America’s labor market may not be collapsing, Moody’s Analytics has highlighted that it is inching steadily closer toward a key recession indicator, with analysts now placing the probability of an economic contraction at around 40%.”
Tags: $40, Analysts, Collapsing, Economic contraction, Labor market, Moody’s Analytics, Probability, Recession indicator, U.S.
Fortune (December 11)
“For all the volatility 2025 has endured, things have actually turned out relatively well: The S&P 500 is up by more than 17%, inflation hasn’t spiked despite an onslaught of tariffs, and the unemployment rate has stayed fairly steady. Analysts and investors are generally feeling positive about 2026 as a result.” This may be overlooking signs of weakness. “Beneath the relatively robust macroeconomic picture, cracks are beginning to show.”
Tags: 17%, 2025, 2026, Analysts, Endured, Inflation, Investors, Macroeconomic, Overlooking, Positive, S&P 500, Steady, Tariffs, Unemployment, Volatility, Weakness
New York Times (December 1)
“Investors had been growing more optimistic that the Fed will cut interest rates at next week’s meeting” while holiday sales “also bolstered the rally.” Still, “the consumer is still a major concern…. Analysts at Goldman Sachs and Bank of America have flagged that a recent rise in spending may be masking a concerning economic undercurrent: Many lower-income consumers are struggling with stubbornly high inflation and an uncertain labor market.”
Tags: Analysts, BoA, Consumer, Fed, GS, Holiday sales, Inflation, Interest rates, Investors, Labor market, Lower-income, Optimistic, Rally, Spending, Struggling, Undercurrent
OilPrice.com (November 24)
“The international crude benchmark, Brent, could dip to the $30s per barrel handle by 2027 as oversupply could overwhelm the market, according to a JP Morgan forecast.” That is, however, beyond current consensus. “Despite the fears of a glut, analysts and investment banks don’t see oil prices moving down to $40 or below, even as oil is set to decline in the near term with strong supply from OPEC+ and the non-OPEC producers in the Americas.”
Tags: $30, $40, 2027, Analysts, Benchmark, Brent, Consensus, Crude, Fears, Forecast, Glut, Investment banks, JP Morgan, Market, Oil prices
New York Times (October 16)
China is trying “to beat U.S. at its own game” by imposing rare earth restrictions. “Beijing’s latest effort to weaponize global supply chains is modeled on the American technology controls that it has long criticized.” This new thrust was in some way catalyzed by “Mr. Trump’s aggressive actions — including new fees for Chinese-owned ships that dock at U.S. ports.” Some analysts believe that “with its dominance over the production of these rare earth minerals and its control of other strategic industries, China may have an even greater ability than the United States to weaponize supply chains.”
Tags: Aggressive actions, Analysts, Beat, China, Dominance, Fees, Imposing, Ports, Rare earth, Restrictions, Ships, Supply chains, Technology controls, Trump, U.S., Weaponize
Barron’s (October 1)
“Like the Y2K disaster or the widespread invasion of murder hornets, the highly anticipated September curse failed to materialize this year. The question is whether or not a rough patch has been avoided or simply delayed. Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite recorded their best Septembers since 2010.” Still, some analysts and investors worry that the issues that worried them “before haven’t been resolved, even as investor complacency seems to suggest that they have been.”
Tags: 2010, Analysts, Avoided, Delayed, Highly anticipated, Invasion, Investors, Materialize, Nasdaq, Rough patch, S&P 500, September curse, Worry, Y2K disaster
Barron’s (August 6)
“President Donald Trump has touted major trade partners’ pledges to invest billions in the U.S. as a win for his fluctuating tariff policy. But trade experts say these commitments leave more questions than answers.” Important details like enforcement mechanisms are unknown and there is no effective way for trading partners to compel “private-sector companies to invest.” In addition, “analysts and veteran trade experts note that investment pledges—as well as commitments to buy U.S. goods—haven’t lived up to expectations in the past.”
Tags: Analysts, Commitments, Enforcement mechanisms, Experts, Fluctuating, Investment pledges, Private-sector, Tariff policy, Touted, Trade partners, Trump, U.S., Unknown
Financial Times (April 23)
“While company leaders have generally avoided public criticism of the US president, they have been forced to confront his tariffs — which include levies of 145 per cent against export powerhouse China — on quarterly earnings calls with analysts this month.” Through Tuesday, “tariffs were cited on more than 90 per cent” of earnings calls while “recession” arose on 44 per cent. Corporate leaders also spoke of “escalating expenditures, gummed-up supply chains and a hit to the world’s largest economy.”
Tags: Analysts, Avoided, China, Confront, Criticism, Earnings calls, Economy, Escalating, Expenditures, Export, Leaders, Rrecession, Supply chains, Tariffs, Trump, U.S.
New York Times (April 21)
“President Trump’s trade war has completely upended investment flows, with global investors selling off U.S. stocks and corporate and government bonds at a clip unlike anything Wall Street has seen in recent years.” Though some semblance of “calm returned to the corporate and government bond markets late last week,” analysts are still wary of “Trump’s next moves, fearing that his protectionist policies and threats against federal institutions could re-accelerate money flows out of the United States, hitting the dollar especially hard.”
Tags: Analysts, Bonds, Calm, Corporate, Global investors, Institutions, Investment flows, Markets, Money flows, Protectionist, Stocks, Threats, Trade war, Treasuries, Trump, U.S., Upended, Wall Street
