Barron’s (August 14)
“Investors have typically penalized emerging markets such as Turkey, Argentina, and China due to concerns about the independence of the central bank, government intervention in the private sector, and rampant overspending.” Now these concerns are focused on “the U.S., which has historically been the paragon of a developed market.” Investors are reevaluating “the premium that U.S. assets have long commanded” and this could lead to “weaker long-run returns for stocks or, more immediately, higher bond yields and a continuation in the weakness of the dollar that has emerged this year.”
Tags: Argentina, Bond yields, Central bank, China, Developed market, Emerging markets, Government intervention, Independence, Investors, Overspending, Paragon, Penalized, Premium, Private-sector, Rampant, Reevaluating, Returns, Stocks, Turkey, U.S. assets
Barron’s (August 6)
“President Donald Trump has touted major trade partners’ pledges to invest billions in the U.S. as a win for his fluctuating tariff policy. But trade experts say these commitments leave more questions than answers.” Important details like enforcement mechanisms are unknown and there is no effective way for trading partners to compel “private-sector companies to invest.” In addition, “analysts and veteran trade experts note that investment pledges—as well as commitments to buy U.S. goods—haven’t lived up to expectations in the past.”
Tags: Analysts, Commitments, Enforcement mechanisms, Experts, Fluctuating, Investment pledges, Private-sector, Tariff policy, Touted, Trade partners, Trump, U.S., Unknown
Fortune (March 22)
“Investor Danny Moses, best known for his oracular bet against mortgage-backed debt before the 2008 stock market crash, is warning of another economic red flag.” Moses believes “the market has not yet accounted for the negative economic impact of the mass cuts to government jobs carried out by the Elon Musk-championed Department of Government Efficiency.” While “disruptions in consumer confidence” are already apparent, they “have yet to be priced into the market.” He expects an “unvirtuous cycle” to result “as more fired federal workers look for private sector jobs” and “find fewer opportunities because of shrinking revenue streams in government contracts.”
Tags: 2008, Debt, Disruptions, DOGE, Economic, Government jobs, Impact, Investor, Mass cuts, Mortgage-backed, Moses, Musk, Negative, Private-sector, Red flag, Stock market crash, Unvirtuous cycle, Warning
Barron’s (January 26)
“A chilling effect has spread throughout the Communist Party ranks as President Xi Jinping intensifies his crackdown on corruption. Those fears are beginning to extend into China’s business world” where the private sector is increasingly “nervous because of the size and scope of Xi’s campaign to rid insubordination or perceived enemies throughout the government and public sector.” In 2024, the campaign’s scope expanded by roughly 46%, with authorities disciplining 889,000 people, “the highest annual total since the party began releasing such data nearly 20 years ago.”
Tags: Authorities, Chilling, China, Communist party, Corruption, Crackdown, Disciplining, Enemies, Fears, Government, Insubordination, Nervous, Private-sector, Xi
New York Times (January 16)
“Intent on reversing America’s decline in the world’s production of cutting-edge semiconductors, the federal government has begun what is arguably the government’s largest foray into the private sector since World War II.” This “more muscular approach to industrial policy” is “pockmarked with risks. On balance, the record of government trying to improve the functioning of the private sector is poor, and particularly in complex sectors like semiconductors, the challenges are great.”
Tags: Complex, Cutting edge, Decline, Government, Industrial policy, Intent, Private-sector, Production, Reversing, Risks, Semiconductors, U.S., WWII
Investments & Pensions Europe (January Issue)
“Biodiversity is fast catching up with climate change as a priority for investors and supervisors, and developments last year have set the stage for a productive 2023…. Barely a topic of conversation in financial markets two years ago,” biodiversity now “has an investment ecosystem all of its own, which is being built on the back of a decade of lessons learnt in the climate finance space. From global agreements, supervisory interventions and standardised reporting guidelines through to data, investment products and a collaborative engagement initiative, the pieces are quickly falling into place to ensure the private sector knows what it’s meant to do to manage nature-related risks in 2023 and beyond.”
Tags: 2023, Biodiversity, Climate change, Collaborative engagement, Financial markets, Investment ecosystem, Investors, Nature-related risks, Priority, Private-sector, Reporting guidelines
Bloomberg (February 7)
“The coronavirus outbreak hasn’t sapped China’s animal spirits. The private sector-heavy ChiNext Index soared to 3-year high this week.” Seems absurd, but the “epidemic is giving policymakers the opportunity to correct past mistakes without looking silly…. At long last, Beijing can toss away its misguided war on shadow banking and design a smarter one that gives the private sector some room to breathe.”
Tags: Animal spirits, China, ChiNext, Coronavirus, Correct, Epidemic, Outbreak, Policymakers, Private-sector, Shadow banking
Wall Street Journal (January 3)
Not just one, but “two U.S. companies have landed a rocket safely after space flight.” This major breakthrough “could make space commuting for commerce and exploration a reality.” This “is also a sign of America’s continuing economic vitality.” The competition between two private sector companies “should lead to more rapid innovation, and the development of private U.S. rocketry will make the country less dependent on Russian rockets for various government or commercial purposes.”
Tags: Breakthrough, Commerce, Competition, Economic vitality, Exploration, Innovation, Private-sector, Rocket, Russia, U.S.
Wall Street Journal (April 13)
“We need to get used to slower Chinese growth,” writes former Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson. He adds that “if, as Beijing has promised, the slowdown is accompanied by deep and serious structural reform that opens up new growth opportunities, such as allowing the private sector to compete against state monopolies in service sectors like banking and telecommunications, then China will still grow robustly compared with all other major economies.”
Tags: Banking, Beijing, China, Competition, Growth, Monopolies, Paulson, Private-sector, Slowdown, Structural reform, Telecommunications
Financial Times (May 30)
“In France, when public servants cash in by taking private sector jobs, it is called pantouflage. In Japan, it is amakudari (“descent from heaven”); and, in the US, it is normal.” The revolving door between government and private sector jobs is a perplexing global issue that recently garnered attention in Britain when the head of tax collection became a consultant to Deloitte.
Tags: Amakudari, Britain, Deloitte, France, Government, Japan, Private-sector, Public servants
