Fortune (March 22)
“Investor Danny Moses, best known for his oracular bet against mortgage-backed debt before the 2008 stock market crash, is warning of another economic red flag.” Moses believes “the market has not yet accounted for the negative economic impact of the mass cuts to government jobs carried out by the Elon Musk-championed Department of Government Efficiency.” While “disruptions in consumer confidence” are already apparent, they “have yet to be priced into the market.” He expects an “unvirtuous cycle” to result “as more fired federal workers look for private sector jobs” and “find fewer opportunities because of shrinking revenue streams in government contracts.”
Tags: 2008, Debt, Disruptions, DOGE, Economic, Government jobs, Impact, Investor, Mass cuts, Mortgage-backed, Moses, Musk, Negative, Private-sector, Red flag, Stock market crash, Unvirtuous cycle, Warning
The Guardian (February 5)
“It is finally dawning on more and more people that leaving the EU was a colossal mistake.” Brexit has led to “supply chain disruptions, staffing shortages, higher food prices and extra red tape for business. Public opinion is shifting towards remorse. Instead of hurtling away from the EU into the swaggering prosperity promised by the Leave campaign, Britain is instead receding into a dark timeline of recession, strikes, and political instability. Last week, it was forecast that Britain will be the only G7 economy to shrink in 2023.”
Tags: Brexit, Disruptions, EU, Food prices, G7 economy, Mistake, Political instability, Public opinion, Recession, Red tape, Remorse, Shortages, Shrink, Staffing, Strikes, Supply chain
American Banker (December 9)
“Fintechs turned cross-border payments into a hotbed of innovation over the last five years. Now the card networks and banks are responding with disruptions of their own. It’s not just the competitive threat from fintechs developing faster, cheaper and more transparent cross-border payment options. The changing economy is now adding urgency for legacy cross-border providers to modernize their services.”
Tags: Banks, Card networks, Cheaper, Competitive threat, Cross-border, Disruptions, Economy, Faster, Fintechs, Hotbed, Innovation, Legacy, Modernize, Payments, Services, Transparent
Washington Post (November 4)
“This week has brought a flurry of speculation over the possibility that Beijing might alter course nearly three years into the pandemic. Investors are watching for signs of recovering demand in China, the world’s second-largest economy, and an end to disruptions to manufacturing and transport that have affected global supply chains.”
Tags: Beijing, China, Disruptions, Economy, Investors, Manufacturing, Pandemic, Possibility, Recovering demand, Signs, Speculation, Transport
The Guardian (June 9)
The pandemic supply chain disruptions are “still rumbling on thanks to China’s drastic zero-Covid strategy.” This is prompting “a major rethink of how companies should organise themselves. Amid the buzzwords such as ‘reshoring’ and ‘diversification’ is the basic need to make western economies less reliant on China and other far-off manufacturing centres.”
Tags: China, Companies, Disruptions, Diversification, Drastic, Pandemic, Reshoring, Rethink, Supply chain, Zero-Covid strategy
Reuters (June 6)
“Even though supply disruptions in many parts of the world are severe and policy solutions are challenging, Western governments do have the opportunity to reverse the rising cost of food through the simple scrapping of biofuel mandates. This would remove a very large non-food demand for crops and turn the current grain shortage to a surplus, easing the pressure on inflation.”
Tags: Biofuel mandates, Crops, Demand, Disruptions, Food, Governments, Grain shortage, Inflation, Opportunity, Solutions, Supply, Surplus
Freight Waves (February 26)
“Russia is not America’s largest trade partner by a long shot — representing less than 1% of the total imports — but many of our largest trading partners, like Germany and China, have strong economic ties to the country.” The conflict in Ukraine “will lead to more supply chain woes,” though there are obviously “many consequences much worse than continued supply chain disruptions and inflation.”
Tags: China, Conflict, Disruptions, Economic ties, Germany, Imports, Russia, Supply chain, Trading partners, U.S., Ukraine
Wall Street Journal (November 7)
“The global recovery—while still robust—is at a precarious point, with the risk of missteps.” A recent survey shows “Only about a fifth of businesses judge that the worst of the supply-chain disruptions has passed,” complicating strategy for executives. Meanwhile, central bankers “are trying to chart a path that will curb inflation but not choke off growth as they navigate the process of weaning economies” from extraordinary support.
Tags: Central bankers, Disruptions, Executives, Extraordinary, Global, Growth, Inflation, Missteps, Precarious, Recovery, Risk, Robust, Strategy, Supply chain, Weaning
Reuters (September 13)
“Shortages of metals, plastics, wood and even liquor bottles are now the norm.” As these “hobble” the U.S. economy, “new challenges continue to arise, including hurricane disruptions to U.S. oil refineries.” Supply lines present additional challenges. “With so many manufacturers rushing to build supplies at the same time, the containers, ships, and trucks needed to move the goods often aren’t available, and have soared in cos…. That has disrupted some of the mechanisms that normally help keep supplies, and prices, in check.”
Tags: Basic materials, Bottles, Containers, Disruptions, Economy, Hobble, Hurricane, Liquor, Manufacturers, Metals, Oil refineries, Plastics, Ships, Shortages, Supply lines, Trucks, U.S., Wood
Wall Street Journal (March 29)
“The downward trend in personal bankruptcies bucks predictions by analysts and economists that disruptions from Covid-19 lockdowns and restrictions early in the pandemic would lead to a sharp increase in filings. Economists and bankruptcy lawyers say federal suspensions of evictions, home foreclosures and student-loan obligations have helped limit bankruptcies—though they worry bankruptcy rates could go up after aid ends.”
Tags: Analysts, COVID-19, Disruptions, Downward, Economists, Evictions, Foreclosures, Lockdowns, Pandemic, Personal bankruptcies, Predictions, Restrictions, Student loans, Trend
