Fortune (March 22)
“Investor Danny Moses, best known for his oracular bet against mortgage-backed debt before the 2008 stock market crash, is warning of another economic red flag.” Moses believes “the market has not yet accounted for the negative economic impact of the mass cuts to government jobs carried out by the Elon Musk-championed Department of Government Efficiency.” While “disruptions in consumer confidence” are already apparent, they “have yet to be priced into the market.” He expects an “unvirtuous cycle” to result “as more fired federal workers look for private sector jobs” and “find fewer opportunities because of shrinking revenue streams in government contracts.”
Tags: 2008, Debt, Disruptions, DOGE, Economic, Government jobs, Impact, Investor, Mass cuts, Mortgage-backed, Moses, Musk, Negative, Private-sector, Red flag, Stock market crash, Unvirtuous cycle, Warning
Financial Times (September 27)
China’s biggest stimulus package since the pandemic has “supercharged markets, putting Chinese stocks on track for their best week since 2008.” The massive package boasts “billions of dollars from the central bank to support the stock market, policy rate cuts, measures to boost bank liquidity and efforts to stabilise China’s prolonged property crisis, including a 50-basis point interest rate cut for mortgage holders.” Nevertheless, it may not be enough “to reignite consumer confidence in the world’s second-largest economy.”
Tags: 2008, Central bank, China, Markets, Mortgage, Pandemic, Property crisis, Rate cuts, Stimulus, Stock market, Stocks, Supercharged
Seeking Alpha (August 6)
The “market meltdown” on Monday “isn’t getting any less volatile, with things now moving in the opposite direction. Japan’s Nikkei ended the session up 10% overnight, marking its best session since 2008, following a plunge of 13% on Monday. Much of the volatility is said to have emanated in Japan, where a carry trade based on the yen went sour as the BOJ raised rates during the same week the Fed signaled its intention to cut.”
Tags: 2008, BOJ, Carry trade, Cut, Fed, Japan, Market, Meltdown, Nikkei, Plunge of 13%, Up 10%, Volatile, Yen
South China Morning Post (July 11)
“The Asia-Pacific region has outpaced other regions in terms of wealth growth since 2008,” During the past 15 years, “wealth in the region has grown by nearly 177 per cent…. The Americas came in second at nearly 146 per cent, while Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA) saw the slowest growth at 44 per cent.”
Reuters (December 8)
“Since war broke out in Ukraine and the U.S. Federal Reserve began a rapid cycle of raising borrowing costs early last year, it has been exceedingly difficult in most parts of the world for companies to get initial public offerings off the ground. Many are getting ready in case an opportunity arises,” but conditions remain unpromising. So far in 2023, “new listings have raised just $114 billion,” which is “on pace to be the lowest amount since 2008” and marks a “dramatic fall from the $571 billion peak achieved just two years ago.”
Tags: $114 billion, $571 billion, 2008, 2023, Dramatic fall, Fed, IPOs, Lowest, New listings, Peak, Rate hikes, U.S., Ukraine, Unpromising, War
Markets Insider (June 27)
“The banking crisis that unfolded earlier this year isn’t over, and banks could be hit with losses akin to what was seen in 2008 if the Federal Reserve doesn’t get inflation under control.” In its annual report, the Bank for International Settlements called attention to the “lasting ramifications of 2023’s bank failures, starting with the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in early March.”
Tags: 2008, 2023, Annual report, Banking crisis, BIS, Collapse, Failures, Fed, Inflation, Losses, Ramifications, SVB, Unfolded
Houston Chronicle (June 17)
“U.S. mortgage rates had their biggest one-week jump in 35 years…. The 30-year rate climbed from 5.23% last week to 5.78% this week, the highest its been since November of 2008 during the housing crisis.” This is likely to accelerate the trend as higher borrowing rates have already been cooling the housing market. “Sales of previously occupied U.S. homes slowed for the third consecutive month in April as mortgage rates surged, driving up borrowing costs for would-be buyers as home prices soared.”
Tags: 2008, 30-year rate, 5.78%, Borrowing, Buyers, Home prices, Housing crisis, Jump, Mortgage rates, Sales, Soared, U.S.
Bloomberg (March 13)
“Trade’s share of global GDP peaked in 2008, and has been falling for the past decade. So the war in Ukraine doesn’t necessarily mark sharp a break in history. But it underlines and will perhaps cement the decline of globalization.”
Investments & Pensions Europe (August Issue)
“Credit investors would be wise to reflect upon the growing debt burden weighing on the global economy.” Debt has surged since the pandemic and it was already at high levels. “Global debt rose by $10trn (€8.9trn) in 2019 to $255trn. At the end of last year, global debt stood at 322% of global GDP, or 40% higher than before the 2008 financial crisis.”
Tags: 2008, 2019, Burden, Credit, Debt, Financial Crisis, GDP, Global economy, Investors, Pandemic, Reflect, Surged
Investment Week (November 10)
Famed investor Jim Rogers predicts the next crisis will be worse than that of 2008. “In 2002 it was bad, in 2008 it was worse and 2012 or 2013 is going to be worse still—be careful.” He points his finger at non-sustainable debt levels which have left countries with few options for increasing economic stimulus. “The world has been spending staggering amounts of money it does not have for a few decades now, and it is all coming home to roost.”
