Time (July 16)
“Iran’s return to conflict is best read as a calculated gamble…. Above all, Tehran’s leadership fears a staged unwinding of its leverage. Once it stops threatening shipping and restrains its regional partners, those tools become difficult to recover.” While Iran may be “running a familiar playbook of escalating to deescalate” and may have an “accurate reading” of President Donald Trump’s desire “to avoid rising energy prices, American casualties, and another open ended war in the Middle East;” there’s less certainty about how that deescalation will come about. “There is no formal consensus… and no faction willing to move first on anything that could be portrayed as surrendering leverage, legitimizing the bombing campaign, or handing Trump a clear victory.”
Tags: Calculated, Casualties, Certainty, Conflict, Deescalate, Energy prices, Escalating, Fears, Iran, Leadership, Legitimizing, Leverage, Middle East, Recover, Shipping, Threatening, Tools, Trump, War
New York Times (July 12)
“Russian spies appear to be operating right under the noses of the Japanese authorities.” Just 10 minutes on foot from the National Police Agency, Aeroflot’s office in Tokyo shelters the 20th Directorate, a military intelligence unit, which “finds the high-tech equipment that Russia needs to wage war.” Japan’s “weak espionage laws and flourishing high-tech industry have made it a crucial piece of the Russian war effort.” The Ukrainian government estimates that Japanese components are found in roughly 90% of Russian missiles and drones.
Tags: Aeroflot, Authorities, Components, Crucial, Drones, Espionage laws, High-tech equipment, High-tech industry, Japan, Military intelligence unit, Missiles, National Police Agency, Russia, Spies, Tokyo, Ukraine, War, War effort
Fortune (July 12)
“An energy crisis is already ravaging Russia’s economy, and a banking crisis may soon erupt as a mountain of debt weighs on consumers and businesses.” A European intelligence report indicates “the Kremlin has relied on banks to pump up the economy with massive liquidity, as its own budget comes under growing strain from Vladimir Putin’s war on Ukraine.”
Tags: Banks, Budget, Businesses, Consumers, Crisis, Debt, Economy, Energy, European intelligence, Kremlin, Liquidity, Pump up, Putin, Ravaging, Relied, Russia, Strain, War
The Times (July 9)
“Every one of Russia’s ten biggest refineries has been hit at least once since the start of the war.” The images of panic buying and “colossal queues will raise spirits in Kyiv,” but the attacks have only seemed to harden “Putin’s determination to achieve victory in Ukraine.” Nor have “the deaths of hundreds of thousands of Russian men on the battlefields of Ukraine” moved the war closer to an end. Similarly, “there are few signs so far that fuel deficits will change Putin’s mind about a conflict that he views as existential for his country.”
Tags: Attacks, Battlefields, Colossal queues, Deaths, Determination, Fuel, Kyiv, Panic buying, Putin, Refineries, Russia, Ukraine, Victory, War
Bloomberg (July 6)
“Donald Trump’s war against Iran may be over, but the repercussions for global monetary policy are here to stay.” In particular, “the path for central bank interest rates around the world has now shifted higher for years to come.” Forecasts for borrowing costs calculated by Bloomberg Economics (BE) “show trajectories elevated by as much as half a percentage point or more through 2028 compared with those envisaged before the war. That’s both on BE’s global gauge for rates, and its measure for advanced economies.”
Tags: 2028, Bloomberg Economics, Borrowing costs, Central bank, Elevated, Forecasts, Global, Higher, Interest rates, Iran, Monetary policy, Repercussions, Trump, War
New York Times (June 27)
“Over the past 24 hours, prices have dipped below the levels not seen since Feb. 27, the eve of the war in Iran, when Brent crude settled at $72.48 a barrel.” The sharp drop is attributable to “increased optimism that a deal would be reached to enable more regular shipping flows through the strait.” And a lot of “oil coming through the strait is poised to hit the market all at once, putting downward pressure on prices.” The I.E.A. believes there could even be a glut next year as “global demand is expected to drop by almost five million barrels a day in the second quarter of 2026 partly because consumers scaled back their energy use during the conflict.”
Tags: Brent crude, Consumers, Dipped, Downward pressure, Energy use, Global demand, Glut, I.E.A., Iran, Market, Oil, Optimism, Prices, Shipping flows, Strait, War
Barron’s (June 5)
“Markets have soared toward the rare air last breathed by investors in the mid-1980s, but the stalling tech rally is bringing stocks back down to Earth.” It was “a series of quarterly updates on Wednesday that punctured a hole in the AI trade that has powered markets higher since the end of March.” The “market’s angst” was compounded by “stubbornly high Treasury yields, the lack of an agreement on ending the U.S. war with Iran, and a near 10% gain for global crude prices since last Friday’s close.”
Tags: 1980s, AI trade, Angst, Crude, Investors, Iran, Markets, Punctured, Quarterly updates, Rare air, Soared, Stalling, Stocks, Tech rally, Treasury yields, U.S., War
The Times (June 2)
“Since the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz, schools have closed in Dhaka, food prices have surged in Lagos, and air fares have risen in Seoul. And in Tokyo, otherwise respectable men have started exposing their hairy knees.” Cool Biz and Super Cool Biz had already toppled expectations for suits and ties, but “it took the Hormuz crisis, for a country that imports 90 per cent of its energy from the Middle East, to topple this final bastion of formality.” There have been dire consequences of the Iran war, but “none as bizarre as the fate that has befallen the Japanese.”
Tags: Air fares, Bizarre, Consequences, Cool Biz, Crisis, Dhaka, Dire, Energy, Food prices, Formality, Lagos, Middle East, Respectable, Schools, Seoul, Strait of Hormuz, Suits, Ties, Tokyo, War
Barron’s (May 19)
“Bond markets haven’t been swayed by President Donald Trump’s latest assurances on the war with Iran, with yields holding stubbornly higher” and impacting the broader economy. “Elevated bond yields are contributing to rising inflation, with April producer inflation at its highest since December 2022, challenging growth investments.” It appears “the bond market is forcing a reckoning Trump isn’t able to stop.”
Tags: April, Assurances, Bond markets, Broader economy, Elevated, Growth investments, Iran, Producer inflation, Reckoning, Rising inflation, Swayed, Trump, War, Yields
Wall Street Journal (May 12)
“The U.S. and Iran are locked in a diplomatic stalemate over issues that have bedeviled the two sides for years, as the conflict settles into a gray zone that is neither war nor peace.” Though the stalemate “could shift any day,” it appears ”the most likely scenario for now is a continued limbo.” Little suggests “that either the U.S. or Iran is ready to compromise, but neither wants to start fighting again.”
Tags: Bedeviled, Compromise, Conflict, Continued limbo, Diplomatic stalemate, Gray zone, Iran, Peace, U.S., War
