BBC (October 13)
We’ve learned three things about the UK’s economy from the semiannual IMF forecast. “1. The UK is weathering the Iran war better than expected…. 2. The UK is doing better than other major economies…. 3. But things could get worse.” Also of note, by 2031, the UK “is projected to have the lowest annual borrowing of the G7 group of countries, which includes Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the US.”
Tags: 2031, Borrowing, Canada, Economy, France, G7, Germany, Iran war, Italy, Japan, Lowest, Major economies, MF forecast, UK, Worse
Market Watch (September 6)
“The U.S.’s status as a financial safe haven has begun to clash with President Trump’s growing barrage of economic and military threats to advance his agenda.” There seems be a common fear behind the Netherland’s recent withdrawal of reserve gold from the U.S., the drawdowns of France and Germany’s U.S.-based reserves, and a current plan in Norway to cut Treasury holdings. Basically, what’s to stop Trump from simply seizing their assets? His “sweeping tariff fight shocked the world last year. Then came the capture in January of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, February’s launch of the U.S.-Iran war, and plans in late August to control of more than 65 billion barrels of Venezuelan oil. In between, there’s been taunting of European and NATO allies, a campaign to takeover over Greenland and its natural resources and, lately, an escalating U.S.-Canada trade war.” So even if seizure sounds far-fetched, it is a legitimate risk for central banks to mitigate.
Tags: Allies, Assets, Barrage, Canada, Capture, Clash, Economic, Escalating, Europe, Fear, France, Germany, Gold, Greenland, Iran war, Maduro, Military threats, Nato, Netherlands, Norway, Reserves, Risk, Safe haven, Seizing, Seizure, Tariff, Taunting, Trade war, Treasury, Trump, U.S., Venezuela, Venezuelan oil, Withdrawal
Barron’s (August 20)
“Japan has leapfrogged France and Germany to become the No. 3 destination for cross-border real estate investment after the U.S. and United Kingdom…. The flows are a vote of confidence in a new Japan where prices are rising and wages are rising faster.”
Tags: Confidence, Cross-border, Destination, Flows, France, Germany, Investment, Japan, Leapfrogged, No. 3, Prices, Real estate, Rising, U.S., UK
The Times (July 29)
The UK’s “reckless lack of gas storage invites disaster.” Britain maintains “90 days’ worth of oil imports,” but “just two or three days’ worth of gas in reserve.” Since oil and gas each account for approximately one third of domestic energy, this “peculiarity” contributes “to energy insecurity and our soaring bills.” It’s completely out of step with reality. “Germany can store 90 days’ gas; France, over 100; Italy, somewhere in between; and the Netherlands, about 60.” Britain’s “reckless lack of gas storage invites disaster.” This obvious failure “ought to be a considerable source of worry.”
Tags: Disaster, Domestic energy, Failure, France, Gas, Gas storage, Germany, Insecurity, Italy, Netherlands, Oil imports, Peculiarity, Reckless, Reserve, Soaring bills, UK, Worry
BBC (June 28)
“Europe’s unprecedented early summer heatwave may be responsible for hundreds of excess deaths.” Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the head of the World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that over 1,300 deaths recorded since June 21 were likely linked to the unrelenting heat. Though the majority of the excess deaths were in France, the heat has been widespread. “Temperature records were broken across the continent again on Sunday – including in Germany, Poland and the Czech Republic – as the extreme heat continued to move east.”
Tags: Czech Republic, Europe, Excess deaths, France, Germany, Heatwave, Poland, Records, Summer, Temperature, Unprecedented, Unrelenting heat, WHO
The Economist (May 18)
“Since Donald Trump took office in January last year, America’s economy has continued to be the envy of the rich world. In 2025, while Britain, France and Japan eked out annual GDP growth of 1%, give or take, and Germany all but stood still, American output grew by 2.1%.” That growth could have been far more impressive. The Economist calculates that without the drag created by “fitful presidential policymaking,” the U.S. “might be rocketing ahead at nearly 5% annualised growth.”
Tags: 2025, 5%, Drag, Economy, Envy, Fitful, France, GDP growth, Germany, Japan, Policymaking, Rich world, Trump, U.S., UK
Barron’s (April 5)
The global economy is in for a “crude awakening.” Even under the best (or least worst) scenario, the Iran “war will shave about a percentage point off global economic growth, taking it down to 2% this year. Growth forecasts for large, developed economies—Japan, France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom—were modest before the war at around 1%. If the conflict extends past June, GDP growth for these countries could evaporate, while inflation keeps rising.”
Tags: 2%, Conflict, Crude awakening, Developed economies, Economic growth, Forecasts, France, GDP, Germany, Global economy, Inflation, Iran war, Italy, Japan, Scenario, UK
New York Times (December 13)
“By itself the United States cannot keep up with China’s soaring industrial capacity, which translates directly into military might. China has close to a 28 percent share of global manufacturing, while the United States has around 17 percent.” China “is acquiring advanced weapons systems and equipment five to six times faster than America…. The United States now risks finding itself in the position of Britain in the late 19th century and Germany and Japan in the 20th: overtaken militarily by a rising industrial powerhouse.”
Tags: Advanced weapons systems, Britain, China, Germany, Global manufacturing, Industrial capacity, Industrial powerhouse, Japan, Military might, Overtaken, U.S.
New York Times (September 24)
Germany is attempting to woo “Indian workers spooked by U.S. visa changes,” as the European nation confronts a growing labor shortage. “Every fifth citizen…is now older than 67, and the country’s baby boomers…are beginning to retire.” Currently, there are an estimated 387,000 unfilled jobs, mainly in technology, and “that number is expected to more than double in the next two years.” The unfilled jobs also mean “there are not enough young workers making payments into the social system to support it.”
Tags: Baby boomers, Confronts, Germany, Indian, Labor shortage, Payments, Retire, Social system, Spooked, Technology, U.S., Unfilled jobs, Visa changes, Woo, Workers
Wall Street Journal (September 17)
“Industrial production in the eurozone returned to growth in July, a reflection of resilience as U.S. tariffs threaten to crimp demand.” Monthly “output edged up 0.3%… after a 0.6% slump in June.” The July “increase was driven by a strong 1.5% upswing in production in Germany.” While the tariff threat remains, “the eurozone’s industry has so far proved relatively resilient, having grown in two of the four months since President Trump’s announcement of levies on global trading partners in early April.”
Tags: 0.3%, Demand, eurozone, Germany, Growth, Industrial production, July, Levies, Resilience, Threat, Trading partners, Trump, U.S. tariffs, Upswing
