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Forbes (February 9)

2024/ 02/ 12 by jd in Global News

“Economists are struggling to put China’s epic $7 trillion stock crash in perspective. The best size and scope may be that, since 2021, the market has lost the combined gross domestic product of Japan and France.” But that’s not even the worst news out of China. Beijing is now “on the lookout for those disseminating negative views on China’s economic and market prospects. This chilling warning not to ‘denigrate China’s economy’ via ‘false narratives’ is Mao Zedong, not Adam Smith. And it raises troubling questions as China’s influence soars.”

 

Institutional Investor (February 1)

2024/ 02/ 01 by jd in Global News

“The Federal Reserve has signaled that it expects to cut rates sometime this year,” though the first cut now looks likely to be delayed until at least May. “Still, most economists think that absent an inflation resurgence, the Fed is going to lower rates this year. Based on past rate cuts that have occurred before entering a recession, the two most likely outcomes are: “no recession and a strong bull market… or a recession and a bust for the Fed.”

 

Washington Post (January 25)

2024/ 01/ 26 by jd in Global News

“The nation’s economy was supposed to have sunk into recession by now, dragged down by the highest interest rates in two decades and a resulting slump in borrowing and spending. Instead, the U.S. economy has kept chugging along. Even more encouraging, inflation, which touched a four-decade high in 2022, has edged steadily lower without the painful layoffs that most economists had thought would be necessary to slow the acceleration of prices.”

 

New York Times (November 9)

2023/ 11/ 11 by jd in Global News

The U.S. economy “has accomplished what many, perhaps most, economists considered impossible: a large fall in inflation without a recession or even a big rise in unemployment.” A recent Goldman Sachs report declares “The Hard Part Is Over,” making the case “that we’re managing to combine rapid disinflation with solid growth, and that it expects this happy combination — the opposite of stagflation — to continue.”

 

Wall Street Journal (October 26)

2023/ 10/ 27 by jd in Global News

“The U.S. economy keeps on growing, and in the third quarter it positively boomed. This is good news by any measure, though it’s striking how few economists think it can keep going. Let’s hope they keep being wrong.”

 

Bankrate (October 10)

2023/ 10/ 11 by jd in Global News

“Recession odds between now and September 2024 have dropped to 46 percent, according to experts’ average forecast in Bankrate’s latest quarterly survey of economists. Those probabilities are still close to a coin flip, but they’re down from an average forecast of 59 percent just last quarter. They’re also the lowest odds since the first quarter of 2022.”

 

Wall Street Journal (October 2)

2023/ 10/ 04 by jd in Global News

“Certain spending habits developed during the pandemic—increased purchasing for home improvements and workout equipment, for instance—have waned as part of an expected normalization postpandemic. Other shopping patterns from the last few years, meanwhile, are sticking. Still unknown is what the new normal in spending will look like, according to finance executives, analysts and economists.”

 

Bloomberg (August 8)

2023/ 08/ 08 by jd in Global News

“China’s trade plunged in July as slowing global demand clouded the outlook for exports, while domestic pressures weighed on imports in a hit to the economic recovery.” Exports (dollar denominated) fell 14.5% while imports decreased 12.4%. Both figures “were worse than what economists polled by Bloomberg had expected.”

 

The Economist (July 22)

2023/ 07/ 23 by jd in Global News

“Economists are not known for their optimism, but today their good cheer is palpable. Not long ago it seemed that an American recession was inevitable.” Now, expectations are heady that this can be averted, but “the surge of hope is… unusual because the world economy is slowing down.” While “falling inflation is good news,” it remains “too early to hail a ‘soft landing.’”

 

Fortune (April 4)

2023/ 04/ 05 by jd in Global News

“After the banking crisis, could the next domino be all those empty office buildings in your downtown? Investors and economists are sounding the alarm about the commercial real estate market, seeing trouble ahead with refinancing. This sector has been hit hard for years now with the shift to remote work bringing about rising vacancy rates and falling property values.”

 

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