The Guardian (July 7)
“Fears of a recession have fallen away, with economists saying Australia is set to safely navigate the biggest global oil supply shock in history even as they warn of substandard growth in the year ahead. The de-escalation of the Middle East conflict has been accompanied by a major retreat in global oil prices back to prewar levels, essentially removing the worst-case scenarios.” But pessimism still runs deep amongst households, with consumer confidence at roughly “a 50-year low as many Australians struggle to cope with substantially higher prices after years of above-average inflation.”
Tags: Australia, Consumer confidence, Cope, De-escalation, Economists, Fears, Global oil prices, Households, Inflation, Middle East conflict, Pessimism, Recession, Retreat, Struggle, Supply shock
Bloomberg (May 9)
“A fresh batch of consumer price data in the coming week is likely to affirm Americans’ growing frustration with inflation.” According to a Bloomberg survey, economists are predicting “a sharp 0.6% increase in the consumer price index for April” as “prices at the gas pump have vaulted more than 50% since the US- and Israeli-led war on Iran started in late February.” Moreover, this is likely to begin filtering through to the broader economy. “The swift upturn in fuel prices is likely to be passed on by businesses in the form of higher consumer prices for other goods and services.”
Tags: April, Broader economy, Consumer prices, Economists, Fuel prices, Gas pump, Goods, Growing frustration, Inflation, Iran, Israel, Prices, U.S., Upturn, War
Fortune (April 7)
The petrodollar “makes up the cornerstone of America’s dominance over global trade, but economists warn the currency architecture has been eroding at its edges for years now.” Indeed, the current era may bring “the biggest change in the world’s relationship to the dollar since 1974, and every day the Iran war continues, the cracks in the old system grow wider and wider. To be sure, the dollar is still overwhelmingly dominant, but it’s no longer the only game in town.”
Tags: 1974, Cornerstone, Cracks, Currency architecture, Dominance, Economists, Eroding, Global trade, Iran war, Old system, Petrodollar
Wall Street Journal (February 19)
Last week, several economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York “found that American households and businesses are bearing nearly 90% of the cost of the Trump tariffs, contrary to Mr. Trump’s claim that foreigners will pay.” This week, a defensive White House tried to fight back and sully the research. “If the tariffs are such an unambiguous economic and political winner, why is the Administration so defensive about them…. Clearly the White House is worried that voters might conclude this research aligns with their own experience.”
Tags: Businesses, Cost, Defensive, Economists, Foreigners, Households, New York Fed, Research, Trump tariffs, U.S., Voters, White House, Worried
Fortune (October 24)
“Some economists have called the “K shaped economy.” Affluent households continue to spend freely on travel, entertainment, and premium goods, keeping service-sector inflation stubborn. Lower- and middle-income consumers, by contrast, are pushing back, trading down, stretching budgets, or delaying purchases altogether.”
Tags: Affluent, Consumers, Economists, Entertainment, Households, Inflation, K shaped economy, Middle-income, Premium goods, Service-sector, Spend, Travel
Washington Post (October 20)
“President Donald Trump says he beat inflation. But several conventional measures of rising prices paint a different picture. Most experts agree inflation has picked up in recent months, in part because of Trump’s tariffs. Economists expect more tariff-driven price increases in the months to come.”
Tags: Beat, Conventional, Economists, Experts, Inflation, Measures, Rising prices, Tariffs, Trump
The Ecoomist (October 13)
Politicians, economists, investors and others have long argued whether China’s economy is “a bubble waiting to burst” or “a sustainable success.” The argument is shifting, however, as “a new debate is now emerging, which is potentially far nastier. Much of the world falls into one camp: admiring China’s accomplishments, but also reeling from a deluge of Chinese exports. In the other camp is China, utterly convinced of the rightness of its economic model.”
Tags: Accomplishments, Admiring, Argument, Bubble, Burst, China, Convinced, Debate, Deluge, Economists, Economy, Emerging, Exports, Investors, Nastier, Politicians, Reeling, Rightness, Success, Sustainable
New York Times (August 5)
U.S. retail investors are “unsinkable” at the moment. “Economists were alarmed last week when President Trump fired Erika McEntarfer, the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, after a weaker-than-expected jobs report.” Markets sneezed, then “largely shrugged it off, despite potentially disastrous long-term effects to assets like the dollar. One big reason: retail investors didn’t seem as concerned as economists.” Retail investors are fearlessly buying on dips and “emerging as a potent investing force beyond meme-stock booms.”
Tags: Alarmed, Assets, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Buying, Dips, Disastrous, Dollar, Economists, Fired, Investing force, Jobs report, Markets, McEntarfer, Retail investors, Trump, U.S., Unsinkable
Wall Street Journal (June 20)
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell “offered nothing to hint at a July rate reduction, and investors eyed September as the earliest possible resumption of rate cuts paused earlier this year. With most relevant data still to come, it made little sense for the Fed chair to commit to a specific course of action.” The Fed is waiting to see “the aftereffects” of Trump’s tariffs. “Most economists expect tariffs to lift prices over the coming months, and that is a worry for the Fed because officials still don’t feel as if they completely vanquished inflation after a three-year-long fight.”
Tags: Aftereffects, Data, Economists, Fed, Inflation, Investors, Powell, Prices, Rate cuts, September, Trump’s tariffs, Waiting
Wall Street Journal (June 8)
“Given persistent trade uncertainty and a sluggish recovery in domestic demand, economists say Japan may enter a technical recession, defined as two consecutive quarters of contraction, in the April-June period.”
Tags: April-June, Contraction, Domestic demand, Economists, Japan, Persistent, Sluggish recovery, Technical recession, Trade uncertainty
