Wall Street Journal (December 7)
“Advertising spending will grow more than predicted in 2025 because tariffs didn’t take as big a bite as expected and AI provided a boost…. Global ad revenue excluding U.S. political advertising will grow 8.8% in 2025 to $1.14 trillion, WPP Media said, raising its forecast from the 6% it predicted in June,” while worldwide advertising is now expected to grow 7.1% in 2026, up from June’s forecast of 6.1%.
Tags: $1.14 trillion, 2025, 2026, 8.8%, Ad revenue, Advertising, AI, Forecast, Predicted, Spending, Tariffs, U.S., WPP Media
OilPrice.com (November 24)
“The international crude benchmark, Brent, could dip to the $30s per barrel handle by 2027 as oversupply could overwhelm the market, according to a JP Morgan forecast.” That is, however, beyond current consensus. “Despite the fears of a glut, analysts and investment banks don’t see oil prices moving down to $40 or below, even as oil is set to decline in the near term with strong supply from OPEC+ and the non-OPEC producers in the Americas.”
Tags: $30, $40, 2027, Analysts, Benchmark, Brent, Consensus, Crude, Fears, Forecast, Glut, Investment banks, JP Morgan, Market, Oil prices
Bloomberg (November 22)
“The American consumer is limping into the holiday season. That was the upshot from a week of big-box retailer earnings that came with signs of caution among shoppers increasingly worried about a softening job market and persistent inflation.” Target and Home Depot are struggling, while “even Walmart Inc., the belle of the retailer ball with huge profits and a rosy forecast, sent an economic warning of sorts” since its growth “came largely from groceries and mid-tier customers looking for bargains — both signs of skittishness among consumers.”
Tags: Bargains, Big-box, Caution, Earnings, Economic warning, Forecast, Holiday season, Job market, Persistent inflation, Profits, Retailer, Shoppers, Skittishness, Struggling, U.S., Upshot, Walmart, Worried
Wall Street Journal (July 21)
“While no recession has been yet forecast, economic growth is expected to slow substantially in 2025” based on a larger than expected decline in leading economic indicators. “The U.S. economy is set to slow… with the impact of tariffs becoming more pronounced in the second half of the year through higher prices.”
Tags: 2025, Decline, Economic growth, Forecast, Higher prices, Impact, Leading economic indicators, Recession, Second half, Slow, Tariffs, U.S.
CNN (June 10)
According to the World Bank, “Global economic growth is on track for its weakest decade since the 1960s.” Its current forecast now estimates global GDP growth in 2025 at 2.3%, a downgrade “from the 2.7% it had forecast in January.” If the World Bank’s current projections for 2025 and 2026 transpire, the global economy will be “on course for its weakest pace of growth in 17 years, excluding two global recessions” arising from the2009 financial crisis and the 2020 coronavirus pandemic.
Tags: 1960s, 2.3%, 2025, 2026, Downgrade, Economic growth, Financial Crisis, Forecast, GDP growth, Global, Weakest decade, World Bank
CNN (May 1)
“Another day, another piece of evidence that President Donald Trump’s escalating trade war with friends and foes is hurting the global economy. Today: Japan’s central bank cut its economic growth forecast for the country in half.” The Bank of Japan “lowered its expectations for 2025 gross domestic product growth to an anemic 0.5%, down from the previous projection of +1.1%, made in January.”
Tags: 0.5%, 2025, Anemic, BOJ, Economic growth, Escalating, Evidence, Expectations, Foes, Forecast, Friends, GDP, Global economy, Hurting, Japan, Trade war, Trump
IPE Real Assets (December Issue)
“There is now a virtual universal consensus amongst economists. The US has successfully navigated a soft landing and its growth outlook is the brightest of all the G7 economies. In December, the OECD published a forecast of 2.4% GDP growth for the US in 2025, versus 1.3% for the eurozone and just 0.7% for Germany. Some even suggest it is an underestimate.”
Tags: 2025, Consensus, Economists, eurozone, Forecast, G7 economies, GDP growth, Germany, Growth outlook, Navigated, OECD, Soft landing, U.S., Underestimate
FX Empire (October 26)
The IMF’s latest forecast counteracted any hope attached to China’s stimulus policy. “Markets reacted positively” when the People’s Bank of China “cut 1-year and 5-year loan prime rates (LPR) by 25 basis points” since “lower borrowing costs could drive credit demand and consumption.” In contrast, “the IMF’s latest growth projections… called for caution,” with 2024 growth forecast for China lowered from 5.0% to 4.8%.” Moreover, the IMF pointed out that “Beijing’s maneuvers may not be enough to support an economic recovery.”
Tags: 25 bp, Borrowing costs, Caution, China, Consumption, Credit demand, Economic recovery, Forecast, Growth projections, IMF, Markets, PBOC, Rates, Reacted, Stimulus
World Bank (September 3)
“India remained the fastest-growing major economy and grew at a rapid clip of 8.2 percent in FY23/24…. Amid challenging external conditions, the World Bank expects India’s medium-term outlook to remain positive. Growth is forecast to reach 7 percent in FY24/25 and remain strong in FY25/26 and FY26/27.”
Tags: 8.2%, External conditions, Fastest-growing, Forecast, FY23/24, Growth, India, Major economy, Outlook, Positive, Rapid clip, World Bank
Financial Times (May 10)
“The UK economy has exited last year’s technical recession with faster than expected growth of 0.6 per cent for the first quarter.” This beat the BoE forecast and marked the fastest quarter-on-quarter growth since 2021. Growth was “driven by a 0.7 per cent increase in services output, suggesting stronger consumer activity as inflation fell. Manufacturing output grew 1.4 per cent, driven by car production which has grown for six consecutive quarters.”
Tags: 0.6%, 2021, BOE, Car production, Consumer activity, Economy, Expected, Fastest, Forecast, Growth, Inflation, Manufacturing, Q1, Services, Technical recession, UK
