Wall Street Journal (August 4)
“The AI boom is transforming the American economy beyond recognition” and has recently been estimated to account for one third of domestic economic growth. “Mapping out exactly how much strength the economy is drawing from AI is less than straightforward, and prone to error. Even so, it appears substantial.” But this welcome source of momentum also presents risk. “The strength that the economy is drawing from the AI boom is also a vulnerability: What would happen if the boom fizzled out?”
Tags: AI boom, Economic growth, Economy, Mapping, Momentum, One third, Risk, Strength, Substantial, Transforming, U.S., Vulnerability
Barron’s (April 5)
The global economy is in for a “crude awakening.” Even under the best (or least worst) scenario, the Iran “war will shave about a percentage point off global economic growth, taking it down to 2% this year. Growth forecasts for large, developed economies—Japan, France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom—were modest before the war at around 1%. If the conflict extends past June, GDP growth for these countries could evaporate, while inflation keeps rising.”
Tags: 2%, Conflict, Crude awakening, Developed economies, Economic growth, Forecasts, France, GDP, Germany, Global economy, Inflation, Iran war, Italy, Japan, Scenario, UK
Reuters (July 22)
“China’s hardened rhetoric against price wars among producers is raising expectations Beijing may be about to kick off industrial capacity cuts in a long-awaited, but challenging, campaign against deflation that carries risks to economic growth.” Such a campaign would “echo” similar successful “reforms a decade ago to reduce the production of steel, cement, glass and coal, which were crucial to ending a period of 54 consecutive months of falling factory gate prices.” Success may prove elusive this round. “The fight against deflation will be much more complicated and poses risks to employment and growth” while U.S. trade war ”is intensifying price wars, squeezing factory profits.”
Tags: Beijing, Cement, China, Coal, Complicated, Deflation, Economic growth, Employment, Expectations, Glass, Growth, Industrial capacity, Price wars, Producers, Rhetoric, Risks, Steel, Trade war, U.S.
Wall Street Journal (July 21)
“While no recession has been yet forecast, economic growth is expected to slow substantially in 2025” based on a larger than expected decline in leading economic indicators. “The U.S. economy is set to slow… with the impact of tariffs becoming more pronounced in the second half of the year through higher prices.”
Tags: 2025, Decline, Economic growth, Forecast, Higher prices, Impact, Leading economic indicators, Recession, Second half, Slow, Tariffs, U.S.
Reuters (June 19)
“Central banks are grappling with elevated uncertainty about economic growth and inflation, complicating decision-making, especially for those trying to calibrate policy as they near the end of their rate-cutting cycles.” The rate uncertainty is in turn “making life hard for investors.” For example, “Norway’s central bank on Thursday gave markets a shock by cutting interest rates, and even the U.S. Federal Reserve is warning not to put much weight on its policy projections.”
Tags: Calibrate, Central banks, Decision-making, Economic growth, Fed, Grappling, Inflation, Investors, Norway, Policy projections, Rate-cutting cycles, U.S., Uncertainty, Warning
Washington Post (June 15)
The “U.S. could lose more immigrants than it gains for first time in 50 years.” This would “mark a turning point in the country’s demographic and economic trajectory, and an abrupt shift from the nearly 3 million net migrants the United States gained just last year.” Negative migration “could become a drag on the U.S. labor force,” potentially slowing “economic growth and fueling inflation.”
Tags: 3 million, 50 years, Abrupt shift, Demographic, Drag, Economic growth, Inflation, Labor force, Migrants, Negative migration, Trajectory, Turning-point, U.S.
CNN (June 10)
According to the World Bank, “Global economic growth is on track for its weakest decade since the 1960s.” Its current forecast now estimates global GDP growth in 2025 at 2.3%, a downgrade “from the 2.7% it had forecast in January.” If the World Bank’s current projections for 2025 and 2026 transpire, the global economy will be “on course for its weakest pace of growth in 17 years, excluding two global recessions” arising from the2009 financial crisis and the 2020 coronavirus pandemic.
Tags: 1960s, 2.3%, 2025, 2026, Downgrade, Economic growth, Financial Crisis, Forecast, GDP growth, Global, Weakest decade, World Bank
CNN (May 1)
“Another day, another piece of evidence that President Donald Trump’s escalating trade war with friends and foes is hurting the global economy. Today: Japan’s central bank cut its economic growth forecast for the country in half.” The Bank of Japan “lowered its expectations for 2025 gross domestic product growth to an anemic 0.5%, down from the previous projection of +1.1%, made in January.”
Tags: 0.5%, 2025, Anemic, BOJ, Economic growth, Escalating, Evidence, Expectations, Foes, Forecast, Friends, GDP, Global economy, Hurting, Japan, Trade war, Trump
Market Watch (April 4)
Trump’s tariffs are sparking the “worst week for stocks since 2020” and leading the VIX volatility index to a new high for the year. “U.S. stocks showed signs of ‘capitulation,’ or a move toward ‘panic selling,’ on Friday” as the “tariffs wreaked havoc in the stock market… stoking fears of a trade-war escalation that could lead to a recession.”
Tags: China, Destruction, Economic growth, Empower, Families, Global trading system, Higher inflation, Highest, Rules, Tariffs, Tax increase, Trump, U.S., Unemployment, Wealth
New York Times (March 31)
President Trump is poised to introduce what are at least “the nation’s highest tariffs since the 1940s.” Unfortunately, these will lead to “lower economic growth, higher inflation, higher unemployment, the destruction of wealth and a tax increase on American families.” In addition, they “will deal a blow to the rules underlying the global trading system and further empower China.”
Tags: Destruction, Economic growth, Empower, Families, Global trading system, Higher inflation, Highest, Rules, Tariffs, Tax increase, Trump, U.S., Unemployment, Wealth
