Bloomberg (October 4)
As Middle East crude flows return to near-normal levels, “global prices remain stuck above $100, roughly 40% higher than when the conflict began.” The elevated prices are “sending shock waves through the global economy, feeding inflation and squeezing industries and consumers alike,” but rapid improvement is unlikely. “A confluence of problems” now keeps prices high:” depleted inventories and reserves that need to be replaced, fears the “unresolved war could reignite,” the drastically increased cost of transit, and elsewhere Russia’s war with Ukraine has curtailed other supplies.
Tags: 100, 40% higher, Conflict, Confluence, Consumers, Cost, Crude, Depleted inventories, Fears, Global economy, Industries, Inflation, Middle East, Reignite, Reserves, Russia, Shock waves, Transit, War
The New York Times (August 8)
“President Trump’s war against Iran has depleted U.S. weapons stockpiles to troubling levels, siphoning supplies from Asia and Europe…. The rapidly shrinking supply of air-defense missiles and other critical weaponry in Europe and Asia not only leaves the U.S. military less equipped, but could also leave Russia and China feeling emboldened should they contemplate a potential conflict with the United States.”
Tags: Air-defense missiles, Asia, China, Conflict, Depleted, Emboldened, Europe, Iran, Military, Russia, Shrinking supply, Troubling, Trump, U.S., War, Weapons stockpiles
The Times of London (July 16)
“Even as US vessels launched hundreds of missiles at Iranian military targets in the past few days, Trump still seemed reluctant to unleash the type of all-out war necessary to bring the enemy to heel. As was the case during the initial five weeks of conflict this spring, the president seems rigidly focused on a low-risk, stand-off warfare, minimising the risks of close-up combat.” With the tactics of Trump’s campaign “explicitly designed to avoid high-intensity battle,” his “objectives are rooted more in hope than in strategy.”
Tags: Campaign, Conflict, Cose-up combat, Enemy, High-intensity battle, Hope, Iran, Low-risk, Military targets, Missiles, Objectives, Reluctant, Stand-off, Tactics, Trump, U.S., Vessels, Warfare
Time (July 16)
“Iran’s return to conflict is best read as a calculated gamble…. Above all, Tehran’s leadership fears a staged unwinding of its leverage. Once it stops threatening shipping and restrains its regional partners, those tools become difficult to recover.” While Iran may be “running a familiar playbook of escalating to deescalate” and may have an “accurate reading” of President Donald Trump’s desire “to avoid rising energy prices, American casualties, and another open ended war in the Middle East;” there’s less certainty about how that deescalation will come about. “There is no formal consensus… and no faction willing to move first on anything that could be portrayed as surrendering leverage, legitimizing the bombing campaign, or handing Trump a clear victory.”
Tags: Calculated, Casualties, Certainty, Conflict, Deescalate, Energy prices, Escalating, Fears, Iran, Leadership, Legitimizing, Leverage, Middle East, Recover, Shipping, Threatening, Tools, Trump, War
The Economist (July 18)
“It is too darn hot. On July 14th the surface temperature of Earth’s tropical and mid-latitude oceans was higher than on any other July 14th in modern records. The same was true for every other day in July, and for almost all of the days in June, too. Europe has gone through three heatwaves since May, and though the continent is better prepared for such things than it used to be, tens of thousands will have died as a result.”
Tags: Bessent, Bonds, Conflict, Currency, Decipher, Dollar, Fiscal concerns, Inflation, Investors, Markets, Middle East, Reassess, Trade war, US, Warsh
The Guardian (June 18)
“A president’s wishful thinking” is giving way to “uncomfortable realities.” This is not an unconditional surrender, vindication or victory. “The memorandum of understanding signed in Versailles lays bare US failure and the pointlessness of this illegal war…. Having squandered billions of dollars, and thousands of lives, Mr Trump is accepting less than was on offer before the conflict.” The impetuous president “bombed first and negotiated later.” As a result, “Tehran has seen its escalatory tactics succeed, while the US has undermined its own credibility.”
Tags: Billions, Bombed first, Conflict, Credibility, Failure, Illegal, Impetuous, Lives, MOU, Negotiated later, Pointlessness, Squandered, Tehran, Trump, U.S., Uncomfortable realities, Unconditional surrender, Undermined, Versailles, Wishful thinking
The Guardian (June 11)
“Since the historic Nato summit in The Hague one year ago this month, European leaders have pledged massive increases in defence spending in the face of increasingly acute threats of Russian aggression. Yet the reality is that key west European governments – especially the UK, France and Italy – are not putting their money where their mouth is for fear of undermining lenders’ confidence in their national debt.”
Tags: Assistance, Bitter, Conflict, Europe, Grim, Incalculable, Invasion, Milestone, Perished, Prove, Putin, Russia, Success, Suffering, U.S., Ukraine, Waver, WWI
Wall Street Journal (May 12)
“The U.S. and Iran are locked in a diplomatic stalemate over issues that have bedeviled the two sides for years, as the conflict settles into a gray zone that is neither war nor peace.” Though the stalemate “could shift any day,” it appears ”the most likely scenario for now is a continued limbo.” Little suggests “that either the U.S. or Iran is ready to compromise, but neither wants to start fighting again.”
Tags: Bedeviled, Compromise, Conflict, Continued limbo, Diplomatic stalemate, Gray zone, Iran, Peace, U.S., War
The Economist (May 2)
“What was once unthinkable now appears unending. Most energy traders used to assume that, even under attack, Iran would not close the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow chokepoint through which almost a fifth of the world’s oil ordinarily flows.” It’s been two months since the Iran conflict broke out, “traffic in Hormuz remains near zero. Diplomatic efforts to get it flowing again are intermittent and inconclusive. Although a negotiated resolution is always possible, it is also conceivable that the strait could stay shut indefinitely.”
Tags: Attack, Chokepoint, Conceivable, Conflict, Diplomatic efforts, Energy traders, Inconclusive, Indefinitely, Intermittent, Iran, Negotiated, Oil, Resolution, Strait of Hormuz, Traffic, Unending, Unthinkable
Fortune (April 27)
“The Iran conflict has confirmed a transformation in the economics of warfare toward cheap, mass-produced weapons, forcing a wholesale rethinking of military procurement.” Iran’s strategy “is the opposite of the West’s model of precision lethality.” It deliberately embraces mass losses because “even the most advanced defenses can be overwhelmed with sufficient volume” and “cost asymmetry” places tremendous burden on the enemy. In this case, “cost asymmetry is worsened by severe production and supply-chain constraints.” The U.S. has burned through 50% of its THAAD interceptors, with the next delivery of THAAD interceptors not expected until April 2027.
Tags: Cheap, Conflict, Cost asymmetry, Economics, Iran, Mass losses, Mass-produced, Military procurement, Precision lethality, Production, Rethinking, Supply-chain constraints, THAAD interceptors, Transformation, U.S., Volume, Warfare, Weapons
