Barron’s (April 5)
The global economy is in for a “crude awakening.” Even under the best (or least worst) scenario, the Iran “war will shave about a percentage point off global economic growth, taking it down to 2% this year. Growth forecasts for large, developed economies—Japan, France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom—were modest before the war at around 1%. If the conflict extends past June, GDP growth for these countries could evaporate, while inflation keeps rising.”
Tags: 2%, Conflict, Crude awakening, Developed economies, Economic growth, Forecasts, France, GDP, Germany, Global economy, Inflation, Iran war, Italy, Japan, Scenario, UK
Fortune (March 23)
“The great toilet paper panic is back as Japan starts stockpiling. As the U.S.-Israeli-Iran conflict rattles oil markets, Japanese consumers are stockpiling toilet paper—a product with no connection to the disruptions whatsoever, but that has caused enough problems for the country that the Japanese government has urged citizens to stop buying ahead of time.”
Tags: Citizens, Conflict, Consumers, Disruptions, Government, Iran, Israeli, Japan, Oil markets, Panic, Problems, Rattles, Stockpiling, Toilet paper, U.S.
New York Times (March 21)
“From his first announcement of the attack on Iran on Feb. 28, President Trump has issued a stream of falsehoods about the war.” It’s well documented that “lying is standard behavior for Mr. Trump,” but “lying about war is uniquely corrosive. When a president signals that the truth does not matter in wartime, he …. makes it harder to win by hiding the realities of conflict and by making allies wary of joining the fight. Ultimately, he undermines American values and interests.”
Tags: Allies, Attack, Conflict, Corrosive, Documented, Falsehoods, Iran, Lying, Realities, Signals, Standard behavior, Trump, Truth, Undermines, Values, War, Wartime, Wary
The Guardian (March 19)
“The US president wanted an easy win, but the conflict is spiralling following Israel’s attack on a gas field and Iranian retaliation across the region.” It is self evident “that the president was not paying heed when people described the likely consequences.” As “Trump breaks things,” the unknown is “who will pick up the pieces?”
Tags: Attack, Breaks, Conflict, Consequences, Easy win, Gas field, Iran, Israel, Pieces, President, Region, Retaliation, Spiralling, U.S.
Bloomberg (March 16)
“Global oil markets face another week of turmoil after a US attack on Iran’s main export hub heightened risks to supply across the Middle East, and deepened concerns over a conflict that’s already upended energy flows.”
Tags: Attack, Concerns, Conflict, Deepened, Export hub, Global, Iran, Markets, Middle East, Oil, Risks, Supply, Turmoil, U.S., Upended
New York Times (March 15)
“Two weeks into a war against Iran that he chose to launch, President Trump faces a stark choice — stay in the battle to achieve the dauntingly ambitious goals he has set, or try to extract himself from an expanding and intensifying conflict that is generating damaging military, diplomatic and economic shock waves.”
Tags: Ambitious, Battle, Conflict, Damaging, Daunting, Diplomatic, Economic, Expanding, Extract, Goals, Intensifying, Iran, Launch, Military, Stark choice, Trump, War
MarketWatch (March 13)
“America’s “goldilocks” economy is over. The next seven days of the Iran conflict will set the stage for stagflation or global recession.” The U.S. was nearing perfection with unemployment at 4.4% and inflation down to 2.4%. Instead of basking in economic triumph, the U.S. now frets over a potential “doubling of the oil price,” which historically “coincides with a global recession. In today’s terms, that is $120-$140 a barrel. Brent crude brushed the bottom of that range earlier this week.”
Tags: $120-$140 bbl, Brent crude, Conflict, Doubling, Economy, Global recession, Goldilocks, Inflation, Iran, Oil price, Stagflation, U.S., Unemployment
Washington Post (March 8)
The war in Iran “is hitting the economies of Europe and Asia harder and faster than it is striking the United States.” The conflict’s impact extends far beyond oil and natural gas prices. For example, “the closure of several international airports in the conflict zone, including the world’s busiest in Dubai, idled nearly one-fifth of global airfreight capacity, interrupting shipments of consumer electronics, pharmaceuticals and precious metals.” At present, “the cost of shipping goods by air from Asia to Europe is up 45 percent since the war began,” double the increase “for sending items from Asia to the United States.”
Tags: Airfreight, Airports, Asia, Conflict, Dubai, Economies, Electronics, Europe, Impact, Interrupting, Iran, Natural gas, Oil, Pharmaceuticals, Shipments, U.S., War
Bloomberg (March 6)
“Until the conflict with Iran broke out, President Donald Trump was getting — by design or by chance — what he appeared to want in three pivotal financial markets: lower oil prices and Treasury yields, and a weaker dollar. The air strikes that the US and Israel launched over the weekend, and Iran’s counterattacks, are unraveling that.”
Tags: Air strikes, Chance, Conflict, Counterattacks, Design, Dollar, Financial markets, Iran, Israel, Oil prices, Treasury yields, Trump, U.S.
Barron’s (March 2)
“The conflict in Iran has upended the global market for oil and natural gas. It is also having a big impact on coal markets,” which rose to a 52-week high on Monday. “Coal is benefiting precisely because it isn’t directly affected in this conflict—unlike the other resources it competes against.” For example, utilities can switch to coal in electricity generation “when natural-gas prices get too expensive or natural gas supplies are threatened.”
Tags: 52-week high, Coal markets, Conflict, Electricity, Global market, Impact, Iran, Natural gas, Oil, Resources, Supplies, Upended, Utilities
