MarketWatch (November 21)
“Developments in Japan are now creating the risk that U.S. yields could rise alongside Japan’s yields.” Amid budget concerns over proposed fiscal stimulus, yields on JGBs “hit their highest levels in almost two decades, with the country’s 10-year rate spiking above 1.78% to its highest level in more than 17 years” while 40-year yields “climbed to an all-time high just above 3.7%.” Since Japan “is the biggest foreign holder of Treasurys, with a roughly 13% share… the concern is that the country’s investors might one day pull the rug by keeping more of their savings at home.”
Tags: 1.78%, 3.7%, Budget, Developments, Fiscal stimulus, Investors, Japan, JGBs, Risk, Savings, Treasurys, U.S., Yields
New York Times (October 26)
Under Donald Trump, a “casino… now passes for the American economy.” Distinguished by froth, Trump’s “casino economy” is “built on speculation and risk. Across markets and policy, wagers on the future are being made with other people’s money at a cost that could prove catastrophic.” While it’s true that “economies run on risk, growth and ambition…. There’s risk, and then there’s reckless gambling.”
Tags: Ambition, Casino, Casino economy, Catastrophic, Cost, Froth, Future, Gambling, Growth, Money, Reckless, Risk, Speculation, Trump, U.S.
Barron’s (October 8)
“The near-simultaneous collapse of two companies tied to the U.S. auto industry is shedding new light on a fast-growing part of the financial ecosystem little known outside Wall Street.” Non-depository financial institutions (NDFIs) “now account for some 33% of all commercial and industrial loans originated by large banks” and, at the end of the month, stood at $1.7 trillion (up over 400% since 2015). “These hard-to-track loans fall outside systems that regulators can track to assess where risk is concentrating.”
Tags: $1.7 trillion, Auto industry, Banks, Collapse, Commercial, Concentrating, Fast-growing, Financial ecosystem, Industrial, Loans originated, NDFIs, Regulators, Risk, U.S., Wall Street
The Guardian (September 24)
“European leaders have been pulled to the right on migration, the climate crisis and Israel. Their weakness is undermining the democratic principles on which the EU was built.” If they “remain still and silent, hoping Trump will simply fade away, they risk giving up not just their dignity but their political agency. By doing so, they are allowing far-right forces to fill the void and tilt the balance permanently.”
Tags: Climate crisis, Democratic principles, Dignity, EU, Europe, Far right, Israel, Leaders, Migration, Political agency, Risk, Silent, Still, Trump, Undermining, Void, Weakness
Bloomberg (September 13)
“President Donald Trump’s most concrete step to rein in unprecedented US budget deficits — sweeping tariff hikes — faces the danger of a legal reversal that would put the nation’s finances on an even shakier footing.” While expert opinion is somewhat divided on the rationale for tariffs, “few disagree that tariff hikes are indeed generating a new stream of cash for the Treasury,” a stream that could disappear with the impending Supreme Court decision, placing “Trump’s deficit plan at risk.”
Tags: Budget deficits, Danger, Decision, Expert, Finances, Legal reversal, Opinion, Rationale, Risk, Shakier, Supreme Court, Tariff hikes, Treasury, Trump, U.S., Unprecedented
Fortune (August 27)
“Investors are underestimating the inflation risk of President Trump’s tariffs, which will push up import costs,” concludes analyst Henry Allen of Deutsche Bank. “One indicator forecasts that U.S. inflation may soon exceed 4%. Consumers are also expecting higher prices. But the inflation swaps market has yet to reflect these risks.”
Tags: 4%, Allen, Analyst, Consumers, Deutsche Bank, Forecasts, Higher prices, Import costs, Indicator, Inflation, Investors, Risk, Trump’s tariffs, U.S., Underestimating
Barron’s (June 19)
“The escalating conflict between Israel and Iran has sent oil prices higher over the past few days. If history is anything to go by, the pressure it’s putting on global energy costs will fade before too long.” Immediate fears of a shortage “are usually exaggerated–the risk that geopolitical events create a shortage of crude almost never materialize, even though that’s always the first thing on traders’ minds.”
Tags: Conflict, Crude, Energy costs, Escalating, Exaggerated, Fears, Geopolitical events, History, Iran, Israel, Oil prices, Pressure, Risk, Shortage, Traders
Washington Post (March 14)
President Trump may be hoping to copy Argentinian President Javier Milei’s success at beating inflation and rejuvenating an economy. Trump now seems “willing to risk a recession to see his vision come to pass,” but his approach is more likely to “backfire and harm the economy for years to come. Recessions hurt. They have long-lasting effects.” On top of that, the President is focused on restoring yesteryear’s jobs. He “is fixated on returning to the economy of the 1990s — or even the 1890s. The only thing worse than undergoing a forced recession would be a forced recession that leaves America less competitive.”
Tags: 1990s, Argentina, Backfire, Economy, Inflation, Jobs, Less competitive, Milei, Recession, Risk, Trump, Vision
U.S. News and World Report (December 30)
“The past two years have defied economists’ predictions for a slowing economy, or even a recession.” Despite increased risk and uncertainty arising from the “wild card of Trump,” the U.S. economy “should remain strong” as it is buoyed by “a moderating labor market, lower interest rates and strong household income.” Household wealth has surged 40% to $150 trillion since 2020, “while debt service payments measured as a percentage of income have largely remained static.”
Tags: Defied, Economy, Household income, Interest rates, Labor market, Predictions, Recession, Risk, Slowing Economy, Trump, U.S., Uncertainty, Wealth Debt service, Wild card
New York Times (November 27)
“The inflation risk stalking the markets eased over the summer,” but is now “front and center again as investors contend with a Trumponomics crackdown on immigration, a rising trade-war risk and a potential bonanza of tax cuts.” Trump’s “latest trade threats show how uncertain the outlook could be”. Since he vowed “to impose tariffs on Canada, China and Mexico…analysts have been gaming out the potential impact.” It could be an opening gambit of little consequence, but “economists fear that it could add bottlenecks and costs to supply chains and reignite inflation, and that it could scramble the Fed’s policy on interest rates.”
Tags: Bottlenecks, Canada, China, Costs, Crackdown, Fed, Immigration, Inflation, Interest rates, Investors, Markets, Mexico, Risk, Supply chains, Tariffs, Tax cuts, Trade war, Trumponomics, Uncertain
