U.S. News and World Report (December 30)
“The past two years have defied economists’ predictions for a slowing economy, or even a recession.” Despite increased risk and uncertainty arising from the “wild card of Trump,” the U.S. economy “should remain strong” as it is buoyed by “a moderating labor market, lower interest rates and strong household income.” Household wealth has surged 40% to $150 trillion since 2020, “while debt service payments measured as a percentage of income have largely remained static.”
Tags: Defied, Economy, Household income, Interest rates, Labor market, Predictions, Recession, Risk, Slowing Economy, Trump, U.S., Uncertainty, Wealth Debt service, Wild card
New York Times (November 27)
“The inflation risk stalking the markets eased over the summer,” but is now “front and center again as investors contend with a Trumponomics crackdown on immigration, a rising trade-war risk and a potential bonanza of tax cuts.” Trump’s “latest trade threats show how uncertain the outlook could be”. Since he vowed “to impose tariffs on Canada, China and Mexico…analysts have been gaming out the potential impact.” It could be an opening gambit of little consequence, but “economists fear that it could add bottlenecks and costs to supply chains and reignite inflation, and that it could scramble the Fed’s policy on interest rates.”
Tags: Bottlenecks, Canada, China, Costs, Crackdown, Fed, Immigration, Inflation, Interest rates, Investors, Markets, Mexico, Risk, Supply chains, Tariffs, Tax cuts, Trade war, Trumponomics, Uncertain
Reuters (November 8)
“The unique exposure of Ireland’s low-tax business model to the United States could place its public finances at significant risk under a Donald Trump presidency.” The president-elect has promised “to incentivise industries to bring production back to the United States, and to slash the corporate tax rate to Irish levels.” This could “prove existential for Ireland’s decades-old model of attracting jobs and tax dollars from U.S. multinationals.”
Tags: Business model, Corporate tax rate, Existential, Exposure, Ireland, Jobs, Low-tax, Production, Public finances, Risk, Slash, Trump, U.S., Unique
Le Monde (November 6)
Trump’s second term marks “the end of an American world” and, for Europe, will prove “even more perilous” than his first term. “There is a real risk that Europe will be divided or even fractured…. This threat is existential for the European Union, and its leaders need to be aware of it and prepared to confront it, without waiting for Trump to take office.”
Tags: American world, Divided, EU, Europe, Existential, Fractured, Leaders, Perilous, Prepared, Risk, Second term, Threat, Trump
New York Times (October 3)
“Markets are on edge about the risk of another oil shock. The price of crude has been relatively stable over the past year, apart from brief spikes.” Now, however, concern is focused on the potential “economic cost of a new war in the Middle East.” Estimates of the potential cost are wide-ranging and speculative, but “an escalation of fighting between Israel and Iran could cause oil prices to spike and send a chill through the global economy.”
Tags: Chill, Crude, Economic cost, Escalation, Fighting, Iran, Israel, Markets, Middle East, Oil prices, Oil shock, Risk, Speculative, Spikes, Stable, War
Institutional Investor (August 2)
“Asset owners, like endowments and pension funds, are gearing up to publish their annual returns for the fiscal year.” Though CIOs insist “that 10- and 20-year returns matter more… than one-year numbers, the annual horse race has begun.” These comparisons appear inevitable, but industry experts call them “flawed” because they overlook “clear differences in performance reporting standards” and “also fail to consider each institution’s particular tolerance for risk, goals, and individual needs.”
Tags: 20-year returns, Annual returns, Asset owners, CIOs, Endowments, Experts, Fiscal year, Flawed, Goals, Individual needs, One-year, Pension funds, Performance, Reporting standards, Risk
MarketWatch (July 6)
“The bond market has enjoyed relatively limited volatility in the first half of 2024, but that calm could be disrupted by growing worry about the U.S. fiscal outlook ahead of the Nov. 5 presidential election. Of all the wild cards in the months ahead for the $27 trillion Treasury market… a rising U.S. government deficit is regarded as perhaps the greatest long-term risk facing the market right now because of its potential to translate into higher volatility during the second half.”
Tags: $27 trillion, 2024, Bond market, Deficit, Fiscal outlook, Growing worry, H1, H2, Market, Presidential election, Risk, Treasury market, U.S., Volatility
Market Watch (May 25)
“On May 28, a new rule will go into effect that will affect almost every stock, bond, and ETF trade in U.S. markets,” requiring settlement within one day. Reducing failure to deliver (FTD) “risk is one of the reasons that industry players have been pushing to get to a T+1 settlement cycle since the 1990s, when the settlement cycle was still at T+5. Over the years, the U.S. has moved to a T+3 settlement cycle, then T+2 and now finally T+1.”
Tags: 1990s, Bond, Effect, ETF, Failure to deliver, May 28, Risk, Rule, Settlement cycle, Stock, T+1, T+2, T+3, T+5, Trade, U.S. markets
Reuters (February 5)
“Prolonged factory deflation is threatening the survival of smaller Chinese exporters who are locked in relentless price wars for shrinking business as higher interest rates abroad and rising trade protectionism squeeze demand.” Fifteen months of falling producer prices have crushed “profit margins to the point where industrial output and jobs are now at risk,” further “compounding China’s economic woes, which include a property crisis and debt crunch.”
Tags: China, Demand, Economic woes, Exporters, Factory deflation, Interest rates, Jobs, Output, Price wars, Producer prices, Profit margins, Prolonged, Property crisis, Relentless, Risk, Survival, Threatening, Trade protectionism
CNN (January 15)
“Germany’s economy shrank last year for the first time since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic… increasing the risk of an economic contraction in the wider euro area.” GDP dropped 0.3%, both during 2023 overall and during Q4. “The data bodes ill for the entire area that uses the euro because Germany is the largest of its 20 economies.”
