Fortune (June 22)
“The U.S. farm economy has been fighting one battle after another in recent years, but a new threat is on the horizon that evokes memories of one of the worst agricultural disasters ever.” U.S. farmers were left reeling from low prices, tariffs and most recently Trump’s Iran War, which sent the prices for fertilizer and fuel soaring. Bankruptcies have been rising and now they may face the existential “risk of a ‘mini-Dust Bowl’ as a rare Super El Niño looms.”
Tags: Agricultural disasters, Bankruptcies, Existential, Farm economy, Farmers, Fertilizer, Fuel, Iran war, Low prices, Mini-Dust Bowl, Reeling, Risk, Super El Niño, Tariffs, Threat, Trump, U.S.
The Times (May 27)
“Corporate leaders who think decades ahead in business become incredibly short-sighted in advocacy, financing ideas that become roadblocks to innovation and growth.” Big Tech is currently finding out about the phenomena that Milton Friedman dubbed “the suicidal impulse of the business community.” For years, Big Tech “helped fund climate activism,” but they now face “backlash as AI data centres drive demand for energy and infrastructure growth.”
Tags: AI, All-time highs, Earnings, Economy, Equities, Fears, Fed, Goldman Sachs, Inflation, Interest rates, Investors, Nervous, Numerous, Oil prices, Risk, Stock prices, Stocks
Time (April 16)
There’s a “looming risk of too many satellites and debris in space.” Current counts indicate there are over 525,000 objects larger than 1 cm and over 100 million of all sizes. “That’s a huge problem, since even such small bits of scrap can carry the bang of a bullet when they’re traveling at orbital speed.” And each collision generates more “more debris clouds, which would strike still more spacecraft, leading to a chain reaction known as the Kessler syndrome that could potentially wipe out whole flocks of spacecraft in that orbital band.”
Tags: 100 million, Chain reaction, Collision, Debris, Debris clouds, Kessler syndrome, Looming, Objects, Orbital speed, Risk, Satellites, Scrap, Space, Spacecraft
Wall Street Journal (February 27)
“Economics 101 teaches that international trade is all about comparative advantage.” Specialization and trade result “in everyone getting more of everything.” This theory “no longer guides global trade. Instead, what’s happening looks more like portfolio theory. Countries are no longer maneuvering to maximize gains. They’re diversifying to minimize losses. The risk they’re hedging against? The U.S.”
Tags: Comparative advantage, Diversifying, Economics, Hedging, International trade, Maximize gains, Minimize losses, Portfolio theory, Risk, Specialization, U.S.
Bloomberg (December 8)
“Foreign investors are storming into Japan’s once-placid government bond market, exposing the world’s second-largest pool of sovereign debt to bouts of volatility sparked by traders thousands of miles away.” Overseas investors are “on course to scoop up more Japanese government bonds this year than in any period since records began in 2005” and currently “account for roughly 65% of monthly cash JGB transactions, up from 12% in 2009.” Welcomed by some, this “increased foreign involvement also raises the risk of a rapid or unruly retreat.”
Tags: 2005, 65%, Bond market, Foreign investors, Japan, JGB transactions, Overseas, Retreat, Risk, Sovereign debt, Traders, Volatility
The Economist (December 6)
“EUROPE is breathing a sigh of relief” now that “the risk of such an odious stitch-up” initially put forward by Steve Witkoff and Donald Trump, “now seems to have receded a bit.” But it is not time to rest or squabble. “Enough dithering. Europe must pay to save Ukraine. America will not. Europe’s security depends on agreeing” on how to save Ukraine.
Tags: Agreeing, Dithering, Europe, Odious, Pay, Receded, Relief, Rest, Risk, Security, Squabble, Trump, U.S., Ukraine, Witkoff
MarketWatch (November 21)
“Developments in Japan are now creating the risk that U.S. yields could rise alongside Japan’s yields.” Amid budget concerns over proposed fiscal stimulus, yields on JGBs “hit their highest levels in almost two decades, with the country’s 10-year rate spiking above 1.78% to its highest level in more than 17 years” while 40-year yields “climbed to an all-time high just above 3.7%.” Since Japan “is the biggest foreign holder of Treasurys, with a roughly 13% share… the concern is that the country’s investors might one day pull the rug by keeping more of their savings at home.”
Tags: 1.78%, 3.7%, Budget, Developments, Fiscal stimulus, Investors, Japan, JGBs, Risk, Savings, Treasurys, U.S., Yields
New York Times (October 26)
Under Donald Trump, a “casino… now passes for the American economy.” Distinguished by froth, Trump’s “casino economy” is “built on speculation and risk. Across markets and policy, wagers on the future are being made with other people’s money at a cost that could prove catastrophic.” While it’s true that “economies run on risk, growth and ambition…. There’s risk, and then there’s reckless gambling.”
Tags: Ambition, Casino, Casino economy, Catastrophic, Cost, Froth, Future, Gambling, Growth, Money, Reckless, Risk, Speculation, Trump, U.S.
Barron’s (October 8)
“The near-simultaneous collapse of two companies tied to the U.S. auto industry is shedding new light on a fast-growing part of the financial ecosystem little known outside Wall Street.” Non-depository financial institutions (NDFIs) “now account for some 33% of all commercial and industrial loans originated by large banks” and, at the end of the month, stood at $1.7 trillion (up over 400% since 2015). “These hard-to-track loans fall outside systems that regulators can track to assess where risk is concentrating.”
Tags: $1.7 trillion, Auto industry, Banks, Collapse, Commercial, Concentrating, Fast-growing, Financial ecosystem, Industrial, Loans originated, NDFIs, Regulators, Risk, U.S., Wall Street
The Guardian (September 24)
“European leaders have been pulled to the right on migration, the climate crisis and Israel. Their weakness is undermining the democratic principles on which the EU was built.” If they “remain still and silent, hoping Trump will simply fade away, they risk giving up not just their dignity but their political agency. By doing so, they are allowing far-right forces to fill the void and tilt the balance permanently.”
Tags: Climate crisis, Democratic principles, Dignity, EU, Europe, Far right, Israel, Leaders, Migration, Political agency, Risk, Silent, Still, Trump, Undermining, Void, Weakness
