Bloomberg (December 8)
“Foreign investors are storming into Japan’s once-placid government bond market, exposing the world’s second-largest pool of sovereign debt to bouts of volatility sparked by traders thousands of miles away.” Overseas investors are “on course to scoop up more Japanese government bonds this year than in any period since records began in 2005” and currently “account for roughly 65% of monthly cash JGB transactions, up from 12% in 2009.” Welcomed by some, this “increased foreign involvement also raises the risk of a rapid or unruly retreat.”
Tags: 2005, 65%, Bond market, Foreign investors, Japan, JGB transactions, Overseas, Retreat, Risk, Sovereign debt, Traders, Volatility
Fortune (September 3)
“As traders head into the final leg of 2025 they are not doing so with overconfidence. In fact, if this week’s bond market is anything to go by, they’re nervous.” Safe haven gold has hit record highs and a “global bond selloff” is creating concern over national debt. “The upset isn’t confined to America alone. In Europe, French government bonds…similarly spiked toward a 5% yield and sit at 4.49% at the time of writing, marking its highest run since 2009.” Arguably, the U.K. is getting hit hardest, “with 30-year gilts pushing above 5.7%, their highest level since the spring of 1998.”
Tags: 2025, Bond market, France, Gilts, Global bond selloff, Gold, National debt, Nervous, Overconfidence, Record highs, Safe haven, Traders, U.K., U.S.
Bloomberg (October 7)
“The ‘no landing’ scenario–a situation where the US economy keeps growing, inflation reignites and the Federal Reserve has little room to cut interest rates–had largely disappeared as a bond-market talking point in recent months.” After “setting up for slowing growth,” traders are undergoing another “wrenching recalibration” on the heels of a “blowout” jobs report “showing the fastest job growth in six months, a surprising drop in US unemployment and higher wages.” Treasury yields surged and investors are “furiously reversing course on bets for a larger-than-normal half-point interest-rate reduction.”
Tags: Blowout, Bond market, Economy, Fed, Growing, Inflation, Interest rates, Jobs, No landing, Recalibration, Scenario, Traders, Treasury yields, U.S., Unemployment, Wages
MarketWatch (July 6)
“The bond market has enjoyed relatively limited volatility in the first half of 2024, but that calm could be disrupted by growing worry about the U.S. fiscal outlook ahead of the Nov. 5 presidential election. Of all the wild cards in the months ahead for the $27 trillion Treasury market… a rising U.S. government deficit is regarded as perhaps the greatest long-term risk facing the market right now because of its potential to translate into higher volatility during the second half.”
Tags: $27 trillion, 2024, Bond market, Deficit, Fiscal outlook, Growing worry, H1, H2, Market, Presidential election, Risk, Treasury market, U.S., Volatility
Bloomberg (October 27)
“The VIX is at 20, stocks are on the brink of their worst October in five years, and every other day the bond market throws a fit. For equity bulls conditioned to dive in at any sign of weakness, it’s getting to be too much. Across investor categories, they’re pulling money out” and moving to a defensive posture.” But “from a contrarian standpoint, all the gloom is a positive, suggesting latent buying power should sentiment ever flip.”
Tags: Bond market, Buying power, Contrarian, Defensive posture, Equity bulls, Fit, Gloom, Investor, Latent, October, Positive, Sentiment, VIX, Weakness, Worst
Wall Street Journal (June 27)
“Workers throughout the economy are demanding bigger raises to compensate for soaring prices. This could push inflation higher as companies pass along higher wage costs in the price of goods and services.” Though bond markets haven’t determined “how serious the Fed is about controlling inflation… workers aren’t waiting to find out as they seek higher pay.”
Tags: Bond market, Compensate, Demanding, Economy, Fed, Goods, Inflation, Pay, Raises, Services, Soaring prices, Wage costs, Workers
Bloomberg (February 26)
“After weeks of grumbling, the world’s biggest bond market spoke loud and clear Thursday — growth and inflation are moving higher. The message wreaked havoc across risk assets…. Speculation is building that a year of emergency stimulus is not only working, but has left some areas of the economy at risk of one day overheating.”
Tags: Bond market, Economy, Emergency stimulus, Growth, Grumbling, Havoc, Higher, Inflation, Overheating, Risk assets, Speculation
Financial Times (December 21)
“A surge of deals in the pharmaceuticals, energy and consumer sectors has pushed merger and acquisition activity to an all-time high, surpassing 2007’s peak — but dealmakers have admitted that bond market turmoil and geopolitical instability are their biggest worries for 2016.”
Tags: 2016, Bond market, Consumer sectors, Deals, Energy, Geopolitical instability, M&A, Pharmaceuticals, Turmoil
The Economist (November 8)
Brazil and Russia are the “dodgiest duo” of the six susceptible emerging markets, which also include India, Indonesia, South Africa, and Turkey. India and Indonesia now appear relatively “secure” while both South Africa and Turkey have bright spots. However, “the mixture Brazil and Russia face—falling currencies, high inflation and slow growth—could make 2015 a very bad year…. Even optimists think the pair will be lucky to grow in 2015. Pessimists see tumbling currencies, bond-market routs and even bank runs.
Tags: 2015, Bank runs, Bond market, Brazil, Dodgiest duo, Emerging markets, Falling currencies, India, Indonesia, Inflation, Russia, Slow growth, South Africa, Turkey
Wall Street Journal (April 3, 2013)
“Japan’s quadrillion-yen market for government bonds is grappling with something it usually doesn’t face: volatility. Price gyrations are rising as bond investors try to assess how Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s fresh attack on deflation will play out in a market accustomed to a steady decline in consumer prices and a cautious, predictable central bank.”
Tags: Abe, BOJ, Bond market, Consumer prices, Deflation, Investors, Japan, JGBs, Volatility
