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Wall Street Journal (April 14)

2022/ 04/ 15 by jd in Global News

“Events in Hong Kong and Shanghai have demonstrated that a ‘zero Covid’ strategy can look very effective for a long time—until suddenly it isn’t, either because a more infectious variant changes the game or because success itself breeds overconfidence.” Unless the Chinese government moves “quickly to vaccinate and boost its elderly, and start spending much more heavily on hospital capacity, then the human and economic consequences could be disastrous.”

 

Bloomberg (August 28)

2019/ 08/ 29 by jd in Global News

“India’s economic numbers have for some time looked better than the facts warranted, feeding an overconfidence in New Delhi about the country’s prospects. Thankfully, that’s begun to change. The Reserve Bank of India, the International Monetary Fund, investment banks and ratings agencies have all recently cut their estimates of 2019 growth sharply.” This is “best news in years… India’s government finally seems to recognize the scale of the problems it faces.”

 

Washington Post (June 14)

2019/ 06/ 16 by jd in Global News

“Is the Iran-U.S. tinderbox about to ignite?” In one sense, it already has. Burning tankers provided “the dramatic imagery that sometimes precedes armed conflict.” Clearly fraught, the confrontation is partly due to “Iranian overconfidence” and frustration. “Trump’s ‘maximum pressure’ campaign has collided head on with Khamenei’s maximum resistance. Met by American economic warfare, Iran’s hard-liners are doubling down with their own forms of deniable warfare, with mines, drones and proxy attacks.”

 

New York Times (April 17)

2017/ 04/ 18 by jd in Global News

Donald Trump is finally paying attention to North Korea, “but not in a helpful way. His intemperate talk is adding to regional tensions, unnerving allies and likely reinforcing North Korea’s longstanding fear that it could one day be attacked by America.” Trump should avoid letting “overconfidence and bombast, expressed in tweets and public statements, box him into some kind of showdown with the North’s ruthless leader, Kim Jong-un, who has displayed similarly macho traits.”

 

Financial Times (January 6, 2014)

2014/ 01/ 07 by jd in Global News

After spectacular performance in 2012, some fear the U.S. stock market is set for a correction. “For now, these worries are probably overstated. The current outlook has little in common with the rampant overconfidence that accompanied the great speculative excesses of the past. But there are reasons to believe that the preconditions for a bubble are in place.”

 

Washington Post (March 16)

2011/ 03/ 16 by jd in Global News

“At long last, humankind had triumphed over risk.” Overconfidence has led to recent disaster in the financial system and deep water drilling. “Today, the quake, tsunami and, most particularly, the potential of a nuclear catastrophe in Japan should weaken at least one of our own deeply rooted faiths – in our own infallibility.” In the U.S., many have pushed for less government, fewer rules, fewer inspections and less regulation. “Japan, one hopes, should bring an end to such nonsense…. We haven’t defeated risk…. We need some rules, some regs, and a government willing to devise and enforce them.”

“At long last, humankind had triumphed over risk.” Overconfidence has led to recent disaster in the financial system and deep water drilling. “Today, the quake, tsunami and, most particularly, the potential of a nuclear catastrophe in Japan should weaken at least one of our own deeply rooted faiths – in our own infallibility.” In the U.S., many have pushed for less government, fewer rules, fewer inspections and less regulation. “Japan, one hopes, should bring an end to such nonsense…. We haven’t defeated risk…. We need some rules, some regs, and a government willing to devise and enforce them.”

 

[archive]