Reuters (October 7)
“The amount of oil in storage that is accessible to the global market is running low… making the market more fragile and putting upward pressure on prices.” For example, “Stocks of crude oil in the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve are at their lowest since October 1982” while “natural gas inventories are also depleted, making prices vulnerable to spikes.”
Tags: 1982, Accessible, Crude oil, Depleted, Fragile, Global market, Inventories, Lowest, Natural gas, Oil, Prices, Storage, Strategic Petroleum Reserve, U.S., Upward pressure
New York Times (October 2)
President Trump is now “threatening to ban or restrict the export of diesel from the United States, which is the top supplier to more than a dozen countries including Mexico, Canada and much of Europe. Oil executives and world leaders are issuing increasingly dire warnings that the result could be global price spikes on everything from groceries to jet fuel.” The only nation with spare capacity to process more diesel is China, but analysts believe “China has started again to restrict some of its sizable exports of refined crude products including diesel.”
Tags: Ban, Canada, China, Diesel, Dire warnings, Europe, Export, Global price spikes, Groceries, Jet fuel, Mexico, Oil, Restrict, Spare capacity, Threatening, Top supplier, Trump, U.S.
New York Times (September 8)
“Investors are bracing for more inflation data this week that could persuade the Fed to raise its benchmark lending rate for the first time in three years. That uncertainty is roiling the bond market, just as rising oil and copper prices (more on copper below) threaten to pinch households and businesses.”
Tags: Benchmark, Bond market, Bracing, Copper, Fed, Households, Inflation, Investors, Lending rate, Oil, Pinch, Prices, Raise, Rising, Roiling, Uncertainty
euronews (August 12)
OPEC and the IEA, “two of the most influential voices in energy markets” released “opposing readings” for 2026, but more harmonious forecasts for 2027. “The IEA now expects the world to burn less oil in 2026 than it did in 2025,” predicting global oil demand will “fall by 1.6 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2026.” In contrast, “OPEC still expects demand to grow” by 580,000 b/d. Both are, however, bullish on 2027 demand. “OPEC now expects demand to grow by 2.2 mb/d in 2027… while the IEA goes further still at 2.4 mb/d.” Interestingly, “the gloomier forecaster for this year delivers a more bullish read for the next.”
Tags: 2026, 2027, Bullish, Demand, Energy markets, Fall, Forecasts, Grow, Harmonious, IEA, Influential, Oil, OPEC
The Economist (July 4)
“We woz wrong about oil. The market bested us…. There is no shame in that. We stick our neck out and consequently risk having it chopped from time to time.” This is one of those times. Before May, “we said oil traders were in ‘la-la land’ thinking that oil prices would fall to $88 by the end of the year. Today Brent crude costs just over $70 a barrel. Our prediction went about as well as the war.”
Tags: $70 bbl, $88 bbl, Brent crude, La-la land, Market, Oil, Oil prices, Prediction, Shame, Traders
New York Times (June 27)
“Over the past 24 hours, prices have dipped below the levels not seen since Feb. 27, the eve of the war in Iran, when Brent crude settled at $72.48 a barrel.” The sharp drop is attributable to “increased optimism that a deal would be reached to enable more regular shipping flows through the strait.” And a lot of “oil coming through the strait is poised to hit the market all at once, putting downward pressure on prices.” The I.E.A. believes there could even be a glut next year as “global demand is expected to drop by almost five million barrels a day in the second quarter of 2026 partly because consumers scaled back their energy use during the conflict.”
Tags: Brent crude, Consumers, Dipped, Downward pressure, Energy use, Global demand, Glut, I.E.A., Iran, Market, Oil, Optimism, Prices, Shipping flows, Strait, War
Barron’s (June 17)
President Trump inked an Iran Deal that “leaves more questions than answers.” While traders are “optimistic that one way or another, the Strait of Hormuz will reopen and oil will resume its prewar flows,” their optimism is not shared by many analysts. “Oil analysts remain skeptical as to how soon, if ever, shipping will resume through the strait at prewar levels. That’s in part because it is unclear if Iran’s agreement not to charge tolls for 60 days, as stated in the memo, will become permanent.”
Tags: Analysts, Iran Deal, Oil, Optimistic, Permanent, Prewar flows, Questions, Reopen, Resume, Shipping, Skeptical, Strait of Hormuz, Tolls, Traders, Trump
Bloomberg (June 15)
“In theory, a peace deal, potentially even a temporary one, should release millions of barrels of oil that have been trapped for months in the Persian Gulf. In practice, there will still be a long list of impediments — including prosaic problems like the need to remove barnacles from ship hulls, and to ensure crews are in position and prepared to sail without electronic navigation signals.”
Tags: Barnacles, Crews, Impediments, Navigation, Oil, Peace deal, Persian Gulf, Practice, Prepared, Prosaic, Sail, Ship hulls, Temporary, Theory, Trapped
Reuters (May 22)
“Asia buys about 80% of oil shipped through the shuttered Strait of Hormuz and stress in foreign exchange markets is one of the clearest signs that rising fuel prices are starting to hurt growth.” Asian governments have been left in “an unenviable position. The path to preserving growth is precarious because falling currencies can shake confidence and stoke inflation, but supporting them with higher rates means a hit for consumers and the economy’s growth engine on top of the fuel shock.”
Tags: Asia, Confidence, Consumers, Currencies, Forex, Governments, Growth, Inflation, Markets, Oil, Precarious, Prices, Rates, Shuttered, Strait of Hormuz, Unenviable
The Economist (May 2)
“What was once unthinkable now appears unending. Most energy traders used to assume that, even under attack, Iran would not close the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow chokepoint through which almost a fifth of the world’s oil ordinarily flows.” It’s been two months since the Iran conflict broke out, “traffic in Hormuz remains near zero. Diplomatic efforts to get it flowing again are intermittent and inconclusive. Although a negotiated resolution is always possible, it is also conceivable that the strait could stay shut indefinitely.”
Tags: Attack, Chokepoint, Conceivable, Conflict, Diplomatic efforts, Energy traders, Inconclusive, Indefinitely, Intermittent, Iran, Negotiated, Oil, Resolution, Strait of Hormuz, Traffic, Unending, Unthinkable
