Institutional Investor (August 29)
“Now that investors can get factor-based funds on the cheap, they’re pushing quants in new directions.” This presents new challenges. “One is a move away from a heavy reliance on decades of historical data and back tests to tying this in-depth research to the realities of the current economic and market environment.” Another challenge is “getting the right people” to do this. “Many quant managers historically hired people with expertise in data,” but “now it’s the background in economics and finance that’s become critical.”
Tags: Back tests, Challenges, Cheap, Data, Economic, Economics, Factor-based funds, Finance, Historical data, Investors, Managers, Market, Quants, Realities, Reliance, Research
The Guardian (August 29)
“China has reached a point of no return in its battle to contain what could be the biggest property crash the world has ever seen, experts believe, creating a perilous moment for the country’s Communist leadership and the global economy.”
Tags: Battle, Biggest, China, Communist, Experts, Global economy, Leadership, No return, Perilous, Property crash, World
New York Times (August 28)
“Each pandemic fall has brought with it employers’ hopes of a broad-scale return to the office.” Delta scrapped last year’s plans, “but this time, business leaders are adamant that they won’t change course.” Over a third of the workforce is adamant about staying remote, “It’s either the end of the era of flexibility around where work takes place — or the beginning of outright rebellion.”
Tags: Adamant, Business leaders, Delta, Employers, Fall, Flexibility, Office, Outright, Pandemic, Plans, Remote, Return, Workforce
Wall Street Journal (August 26)
“Energy common sense is in short supply these days, so all the more reason to cheer Japan for rethinking its flight from nuclear power.” Germany is currently debating whether to keep “its three remaining reactors online. Maybe Japan’s decision will prove compelling. “This should be an easy call as natural gas shortages loom this winter. Advanced economies need reliable base load power, and at least Tokyo understands this.”
Tags: Advanced economies, Base load power, Common sense, Debating, Germany, Japan, Natural gas, Nuclear power, Reliable, Rethinking, Short supply, Shortages, Tokyo, Winter
Earth.Org (August 25)
“Southwest China is battling the worst drought in more than half a century. Rainfall in the Yangtze River Basin is at its lowest since 1961, down 45% from last July.” Some places “have not seen rain in more than two months” and Yangtze water levels “have halved, affecting trade, limiting drinking water supplies, and causing rolling blackouts.”
Tags: 1961, Drinking water, Drought, Halved, Lowest, Rainfall, Rolling blackouts, Southwest China, Trade, Water levels, Worst, Yangtze River Basin
Forbes (August 24)
“Europe’s worst drought and heatwave in half a millennium is also a disaster in the realm of energy.” Though unspeakable suffering has followed in its wake, “it is the drought, especially the drying of European rivers, which should worry everyone the most…. Rivers are Europe’s economic and transportation backbone, and their drying will drive up energy and commodity prices” and stifle logistics and energy production. “Rivers form an invisible but vital infrastructure to every part of the European economy, and energy is no exception.”
Tags: Backbone, Commodity prices, Disaster, Drought, Drying, Energy, Europe, Heatwave, Logistics, Millennium, Rivers, Suffering, Transportation, Worst
Bloomberg (August 23)
Dams are typically viewed as a stable form of renewable energy. “The drought on the Yangtze is showing how the climate can scramble that logic. Solar’s major variability can be measured in hours, governed by the rise and fall of the sun, and relatively easily fixed by using batteries to shift the midday peak in output to the early evening peak in grid demand…. Hydro power, however, has a unique ability to underperform for a whole season.”
Tags: Underperform
Investment Week (August 23)
In early August, the Bank of England predicted “increased gas prices would cause inflation to rise above 13% by the end of the year.” The consensus is worse. “Goldman Sachs and EY forecast UK consumer price inflation would reach 15%, and Bank of America projected it would peak at 14% in January.” Citi bank has gone further and “riled markets” by forecasting “UK CPI to hit 18.6% in January… beating the 1979 peak when CPI hit 17.8% following the OPEC oil shock.” A recession looks all but inevitable.
Tags: Bank of America, BOE, Citi bank, Consensus, CPI, EY, Forecast, Gas prices, Goldman Sachs, Inflation, Markets, Oil shock, OPEC, Peak, Recession, UK
The Guardian (August 22)
“England currently feels like an eerie, unpoliced, ungoverned, unstable country after a coup. One government is gone but another hasn’t replaced it, and opposition cannot rise to the challenge.” A macro analyst recently wrote that the UK increasingly looks like “an emerging market country…. Brexit coupled with Covid and high inflation have succeeded…. The UK economy is crushed.”
Tags: Analyst, Brexit, Challenge, Coup, Covid, Economy, Eerie, Emerging market, England, Government, Inflation, Opposition, UK, Ungoverned, Unpoliced, Unstable
Financial Times (August 22)
“China has slashed its mortgage lending rate for the second time this year as the country’s central bank seeks to limit the fallout from a liquidity crisis in the property sector.” While this may “reduce borrowing costs on new mortgages nationwide and provide a boost to the country’s debt-laden real estate sector,” it is unlikely to fix the “crisis of confidence faced by Chinese developers.”
Tags: Borrowing costs, Central bank, China, Crisis of confidence, Debt-laden, Fallout, Lending rate, Liquidity crisis, Mortgage, Property sector, Real estate, Slashed
