New York Times (April 12)
“More economists are paring their bets that the Fed will cut rates after the latest Consumer Price Index report.” The new consensus of “higher-for-longer inflation… has hit the U.S. housing market like a thunderbolt. Home prices and mortgage rates are climbing again, dashing hopes that financing costs would fall this year and adding another economic question that could hang over the presidential election campaign.”
Tags: CPI, Economists, Fed, Financing costs, Home prices, Housing market, Inflation, Mortgage rates, Rates, U.S.
CNN (December 27)
While the economic progress made during 2023 is remarkable, “there’s still a long way to go before inflation is where the Fed wants it,” partly because higher prices have been “pervasive” and “sticky.” They’re not easily reversible. “More than 90% of the items tracked in the Consumer Price Index are more expensive than they were in February 2020, with most price increases landing north of 20% and some (fuel and margarine) approaching 55%.”
Tags: 20%, 2023, CPI, Economic progress, Expensive, Fed, Fuel, Inflation, Margarine, Pervasive, Prices, Remarkable, Sticky
Washington Post (December 10)
“China’s consumer prices fell the fastest in three years in November while factory-gate deflation deepened, indicating rising deflationary pressures as weak domestic demand casts doubt over the economic recovery.” Year on year and month on month, CPI fell a worse than expected 0.5%. “The year-on-year CPI decline was the steepest since November 2020.”
Tags: China, CPI, Deepened, Deflation, Domestic demand, Doubt, Economic recovery, Factory-gate, Fell, November, Pressures, Steepest, Weak, Worse
The Hindu (February 15)
Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das proclaimed the worst of inflation was in the rear-view mirror. Five days later, January CPI estimates “revealed a disconcerting reversal in price gains trend. Headline retail inflation… quickened by 80 basis points last month to 6.5%. Propelling the acceleration was a 175 basis-points jump in food prices.” This “surprise reversal” suggests that “inflationary expectations in the economy are nowhere near anchored and will necessitate further policy action both from the RBI and fiscal authorities.”
Tags: Acceleration, Anchored, CPI, Economy, Expectations, Food prices, India, Inflation, Price gains, Reserve Bank, Surprise reversal
Investment Week (August 23)
In early August, the Bank of England predicted “increased gas prices would cause inflation to rise above 13% by the end of the year.” The consensus is worse. “Goldman Sachs and EY forecast UK consumer price inflation would reach 15%, and Bank of America projected it would peak at 14% in January.” Citi bank has gone further and “riled markets” by forecasting “UK CPI to hit 18.6% in January… beating the 1979 peak when CPI hit 17.8% following the OPEC oil shock.” A recession looks all but inevitable.
Tags: Bank of America, BOE, Citi bank, Consensus, CPI, EY, Forecast, Gas prices, Goldman Sachs, Inflation, Markets, Oil shock, OPEC, Peak, Recession, UK
Northern Trust Advisor Perspectives (June 8)
“Inflation across advanced economies has increased to rates not seen in multiple decades. Japan, where the headline consumer price index rose by only 2.5% for the twelve months ending in April, stands as an exception.” Though this “appears moderate… it is very high for a country where a generation has never seen sustained price increases. Japan’s inflation has averaged only 0.3% in the past three decades.”
Tags: Advanced economies, CPI, Exception, Generation, Increased, Inflation, Japan, Moderate, Price increases, Rates
Seeking Alpha (December 14)
“Given the latest CPI and PPI data, the fate for an accelerated taper appears to have been sealed and what is likely to be a much more hawkish tone out of the Fed.” In spite of this, “the equity market has lived in fantasyland over the past week, rallying off a massive drop in implied volatility.” Still, the realization is dawning “that the Fed is no longer the stock market’s friend.”
Tags: CPI, Equity market, Fantasyland, Fed, Hawkish, PPI, Rallying, Taper, Volatility
Seeing Alpha (November 10)
“CPI came in red-hot again, up 0.9% month-over-month and 6.2% year-over-year, showing broad-based increases. The biggest contributors to price gains were energy, rent, food, and used cars and trucks.” As a result, “real average hourly earnings for American workers are down 1.2% year-over-year. Not exactly what we’re hoping to see.”
LA Times (October 14)
President Biden is doing what he can to get the supply chain rolling as he pressures ports to open 24/7. “One of the biggest economic threats is that supply chain bottlenecks and various shortages are sparking higher inflation.” The consumer price index showed year-0n-year inflation jumped 5.4%, “the highest rate in more than a decade.”
Tags: 24/7, Biden, Bottlenecks, CPI, Economic threats, Highest, Inflation, Ports, Shortages, Supply chain
SeekingAlpha (May 30)
“It’s dawning on many investors that our post-Covid financial problems may not be as easily solved as Washington claims. The latest clue that trouble is brewing has come from the sudden and dramatic arrival of inflation. On May 12, it was revealed that the Consumer Price Index… had risen 4.2% year-over-year, the fastest pace since 2008.”
Tags: 4.2%, Brewing, CPI, Fastest, Financial problems, Inflation, Investors, Post-Covid, Solved, Trouble
